|Inflation & Technology|
Added On - 6/23/2017 5:09:57 PM
How does technology produce those higher living standards? Through lower prices.
|Stephen Koukoulas - House Prices!|
Added On - 6/19/2017 8:09:48 AM
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the official measure of house prices for the March quarter next week and they will be cut and diced for clues about the heat or otherwise in the housing market.
Added On - 6/16/2017 3:46:45 PM
The employment data looked great on Thursday - 42,000 jobs, unemployment down from 5.7% to 5.5%. Hours worked jumped 1.9%, taking the annual growth from 1.4% to 2.1%. Unfortunately it was rubbish.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Get Ready For The Fed|
Added On - 6/13/2017 8:05:54 AM
The US Federal Open Markets Committee will meet next week to determine whether or not to hike interest rates for a fourth time in this cycle. The market is pricing it in as a near certainty, which would take the Fed Funds rate (equivalent to the cash rate) to 1.25 per cent.
Added On - 6/9/2017 3:31:21 PM
I had dinner the other night with an endangered species: a fund manager who is overweight Aussie banks.
|Stephen Koukoulas - All Eyes On GDP|
Added On - 6/5/2017 7:54:01 AM
Next week is a busy one with the RBA meeting one highlight - the other is the release of the much-anticipated March quarter GDP result. Just how strong, or weak, was the economy at the start of 2017?
|Donald Leaves Paris|
Added On - 6/2/2017 3:07:31 PM
I must say I'm on board with Trump's opposition to the US paying billions of dollars into the Green Climate Fund for developing countries. America can't afford it, and most of it will probably be wasted anyway.
|The Week Ahead With Stephen Koukoulas|
Added On - 5/29/2017 7:55:58 AM
Next week is a busy one for fresh news on the economy. The private new capital expenditure data will be a particular highlight as the slide in Capex over the past four years gets closer to a trough. Or so the RBA, Treasury and all economists hope.
|Retail's Bad Week|
Added On - 5/26/2017 3:20:33 PM
It's been a bad week for retail alright, what with Topshop Australia going broke and word that Amazon is looking to open here earlier than expected, and is already chatting to grocery suppliers.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Commodity Prices|
Added On - 5/22/2017 8:39:29 AM
One vital factor for the Australian economy is commodity prices. These have been choppy in recent months, they remain higher than they were at the start of 2016, but are still well below the boom levels of 3 to 5 years ago.
Added On - 5/19/2017 3:07:18 PM
Can Jeff Bezos do over the next 34 years what Warren Buffett did since 1983? I don't know, but maybe.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Where To For Wages?|
Added On - 5/15/2017 8:28:56 AM
One reason for the low inflation and moderate growth trends in the economy has been the sharp downturn in wages growth
|The Budget Economics|
Added On - 5/12/2017 4:54:37 PM
Economically, it's a bit too optimistic, but nothing unusual in that. In particular the forecasts for wages growth look far too high - 2.5% next year rising to 3.5% in 2019-20 and then 3.75% in 2020-21, which gets the budget back to surplus.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Rates On Hold|
Added On - 5/1/2017 8:23:07 AM
The monthly meeting of the RBA Board on Tuesday is almost certain to leave official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent, a rate first reached in August 2016.
|Anywhere But Oz?|
Added On - 4/28/2017 3:34:34 PM
This is a hard thing to say, and I don't do it lightly, but we may be at the point where you'd be better off investing anywhere but Australia.
|Stephen Koukoulas - All Eyes On Inflation|
Added On - 4/24/2017 8:28:13 AM
It will all be about inflation. The March quarter consumer price index on Wednesday will be a dominant guiding force for the markets and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
|The New Globalisation|
Added On - 4/21/2017 12:29:47 PM
I interviewed Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva
|Are Shares Better Than Property Now?|
Added On - 4/10/2017 9:31:14 AM
Is the property topping out and in any case it is all over the place
|Stephen Koukoulas - Jobs Data|
Added On - 4/10/2017 6:18:21 AM
Next week sees the release of the all-important monthly labour force data.
Added On - 3/31/2017 4:53:15 PM
Lithium miner Orocobre is now the most shorted stock on the ASX, having taken over from Myer and Aconex in the past few weeks.
|Stephen Koukoulas - House Prices|
Added On - 3/20/2017 6:59:07 AM
House prices - it's the topic on everyone's lips and it's a topic where everyone has a view. Next week sees a factual update on house prices trends with the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics house price series for the December quarter.
|Yellen vs. Trump|
Added On - 3/17/2017 1:05:21 PM
The reason the rate hike announced by the Federal Reserve this week became so certain, so early, is that after it raised rates in December, financial conditions actually became looser, not tighter.
|544 Days Of Turnbull|
Added On - 3/14/2017 10:22:01 AM
Yes, coming up for 18 months since he toppled T. Abbott. It seems like only yesterday doesn't it?
|Stephen Koukoulas - Jobs Data|
Added On - 3/13/2017 5:31:00 PM
Amid the discussion about how strong or weak the Australian economy is, this week sees the release of the labour force data for February.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Retail Sales In Focus|
Added On - 3/6/2017 6:51:24 AM
The retail trade data for January are they key data next week. They will reveal a fulsome update on the sales period around Christmas/New Year. Recall that in December, retail sales recorded a shock 0.1 per cent decline which continued the broad trends of weaker retail sales growth.
|Kohler's Overview - Inside The GDP Numbers|
Added On - 3/3/2017 4:50:16 PM
The best and worst thing about this week's national accounts was the strength in consumer spending - household consumption contributed 0.5% of the 1.1% GDP growth number for the December quarter.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Is Australia In A Recession?|
Added On - 2/27/2017 11:29:15 AM
All will be revealed next Wednesday with the release of the December quarter GDP result.
|Alan Kohler's Overview|
Added On - 2/24/2017 3:05:46 PM
Overall I think it's fair to say that for the first time in seven years, the macro environment is supporting investment in equities and to look for opportunities to increase exposure to the market.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Capex Data|
Added On - 2/20/2017 8:37:47 AM
The big news next week is the release of private sector business investment data.
|Kohler's Overview - CBA: Not Bad, Not Cheap, Not Expensive|
Added On - 2/17/2017 3:48:11 PM
Commonwealth Bank's result this week was really impressive: net interest margin was squeezed but cost control resulted in a solid 3.5% lift in the bottom line.
|Stephen Koukoulas - Employment Data|
Added On - 2/13/2017 7:54:29 AM
How strong is the labour market? Next week sees a further update on the data for full-time and part-time employment, unemployment, underemployment and workforce participation.
|Kohler's Overview - China, The Belt and Road Initiative|
Added On - 2/10/2017 4:27:45 PM
Imagine if a third of our exports went to Europe or the United States instead of China - we'd be quite worried at the moment, and rightly so.
|Kohler's Charts - RBA On Hold|
Added On - 2/6/2017 10:01:09 AM
The RBA meets for the first time for two months on 7 February. Monetary policy and whether or not the Reserve Bank of Australia will be adjusting interest rates any time soon will return to centre stage
|Kohler's Overview - Algorithmic Minefield |
Added On - 2/3/2017 4:07:36 PM
The sharemarket is like a game of football in a minefield these days, with explosions going off regularly and investors in specific stocks getting blown to bits just as they thought they were about to kick a goal.
|Kohler's Charts - US Unemployment Rate |
Added On - 1/30/2017 9:46:51 AM
The US jobs market will take centre stage with January labour market data out on Friday.
|Kohler's Overview - US Equities Stretched|
Added On - 1/30/2017 9:38:14 AM
The Dow Jones passed 20,000 for the first time at 1.30am on Australia Day (our time) and stayed there the following day.
|Kohler's Charts - Annual Underlying Inflation|
Added On - 1/23/2017 7:12:13 AM
This week, it's all about inflation and how much the RBA will miss its target by.
|Kohler's Overview - Australian Economy
Added On - 1/20/2017 2:36:13 PM
It's pretty clear that US and global issues will dominate this year, but separately, there's a big transition going on in Australia too.
|Kohler's Charts - Small Ordinaries Index |
Added On - 12/23/2016 6:41:13 PM
The shifts between small caps and large caps this year have been massive. In August the Small Ordinaries Index had outperformed the 20 Leaders by almost 20%, but four months later that has been largely reversed.
|Kohler's Charts - Australia's Federal Budget|
Added On - 12/19/2016 10:01:59 AM
Scott Morrison, releases the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) this week.
|Kohler's Charts - US Dollar Flexes Its Muscles|
Added On - 12/16/2016 1:16:26 PM
The US dollar surged again on Thursday after the Fed raised rates for the second time, and also raised the forecasts for next year. It's now up 6% since before the US election.
|Kohler's Charts - Data Defies Trump Gloom|
Added On - 12/12/2016 12:02:35 PM
Last Tuesday, the President-elect Donald Trump declared that 'we're living through the greatest jobs theft in the history of the world', which sits rather oddly with today's chart.
|Kohler's Charts - Key Takeaways From The GDP Read|
Added On - 12/9/2016 12:34:32 PM
A couple of key points from this week’s national Accounts, which showed the first contraction in GDP since 2011.
|Kohler's Charts - National Accounts Week|
Added On - 12/2/2016 10:18:20 AM
So far the signs are that GDP for the third quarter will be weak – not minus
|Kohler's Charts - Italy Votes|
Added On - 11/28/2016 8:45:29 AM
Italy's big referendum happens next Sunday. It's about reducing the powers of the Senate to streamline the operation of government, but it has become a referendum on Prime Minister Renzi's leadership and, in many eyes, on Italy's membership of the EU.
|Kohler's Charts - Australia's Many Housing Markets|
Added On - 11/25/2016 1:08:32 PM
If you hear anyone talking about 'the housing market', ask them 'which one?'
|Kohler's Charts - Commodities & The A$ Diverge|
Added On - 11/21/2016 1:42:01 AM
The Aussie dollar broke below US74c and is clearly the thing to watch this week as markets continue to digest the result of the US election.
|Kohler's Charts - Break Between Bonds And Equities |
Added On - 11/18/2016 11:48:41 AM
There is a huge break between bonds and equities since the US election - bond prices have accelerated their declines while shares, at least in the US, have turned sharply.
|Kohler's Charts - Housing Investors Get Their Mojo Back|
Added On - 11/14/2016 8:40:25 AM
Investors get their mojo back. As the prospect of interest rate rises stretches further and further away, investors are taking advantage of the low cost of finance to buy more and presumably more expensive houses. And they're about to finish the real estate year on a high.
|Kohler's Charts - It Was A Pothole! |
Added On - 11/11/2016 1:15:08 PM
It was a pothole! Bump-bump. What the hell was that?
|Kohler's Charts - The US Election|
Added On - 11/7/2016 8:23:19 AM
There's only one thing that matters this week: the US Presidential election
|Kohler's Charts - Key RBA Forecasts|
Added On - 11/4/2016 1:56:30 PM
The RBA put out its six-monthly Statement on Monetary Policy today
|Kohler's Charts - Cup Day RBA|
Added On - 10/31/2016 8:20:18 AM
So what will the Reserve Bank do tomorrow? Nothing of course. Rates will stay on hold.
|Kohler's Charts - Ardent Leisure|
Added On - 10/28/2016 3:52:41 PM
Here is a chart of Ardent's share price the start of 2014 - all that was gained has now been lost. It's times like this week that show what a company is really made of, and unfortunately Ardent Leisure has fallen short.