|How Strong Is The Australian Economy Really?|
Added On - 6/16/2017 1:30:39 PM
This is the debate now being waged by financial market economists across Sydney dealing rooms, and there's no clear consensus.
|Is Retail Really Dying?|
Added On - 5/26/2017 1:44:40 PM
Even in a sector that faces both structural and cyclical challenges, pockets of potential can still be found.
|RBA Concerns Over Spending Not Housing|
Added On - 5/5/2017 12:57:05 PM
Despite what the scare mongering newspaper headlines may suggest, Reserve Bank Governor Phil Lowe's speech this week on house prices and household debt was more reassuring than alarming.
|Win-Win Outlook For The Banks?|
Added On - 4/21/2017 1:03:13 PM
Global financial markets at present are caught between two possible scenarios for the year ahead: the so-called risk-on 'Trump reflation' trades, and the risk-off 'geopolitical' risk concerns. Each scenario favours a different set of investment ideas.
|Headwinds Forming For The Aussie Dollar|
Added On - 4/7/2017 3:24:50 PM
I'm now sensing the $A is likely to face a serious test in coming months and may yet break to the downside, setting up a test of US70c by year-end.
|Why The Rate Hike Calls Are Wrong|
Added On - 3/24/2017 12:59:17 PM
Were the RBA to tighten more aggressively, the wider-ranging effects on the economy would be disastrous. We'd be throwing the baby out with the bath water.
|Why Wall Street Is Overbought|
Added On - 3/10/2017 12:23:06 PM
After a nice further leg up in prices since late January, Wall Street now looks over extended and a decent price correction of at least 5 to 10% could now be underway and possibly play out over the next month or so.
|Lowe Signals Rates Have Bottomed|
Added On - 2/24/2017 1:07:30 PM
Phillip Lowe, the newly installed Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is already clearly delineating his own particular set of priorities with regard to monetary policy. From recent RBA publications and speeches, Lowe has been unusually candid in outlining his thinking.
|Trump: Hold Your Nose And Buy|
Added On - 2/10/2017 12:32:20 PM
The performance of the US equity market through January was quite impressive considering the erratic nature of the Trump Presidency so far.
|Trump Builds Wall Of Worry|
Added On - 1/30/2017 9:56:32 AM
It seems that Donald Trump's campaign rhetoric on trade is likely to be quickly put to the test. How countries respond to this antagonism remains to be seen, but the omens are not good.
|Why The Market Can Hold A Higher PE In 2017|
Added On - 1/13/2017 11:47:40 AM
Contrary to the usual fears that dominate the financial headlines, the Australian share market ended up posting reasonable performance in 2016.
|2016 Thrills Set To Spill Into 2017|
Added On - 12/16/2016 1:28:48 PM
This year began with great fear and trepidation over potential interest rates hike in the United States.
|The Good & Bad News For Australian Investors |
Added On - 11/25/2016 10:56:18 AM
I've got good and bad news for Australian investors as regards our fiscal outlook and credit rating
|Investing After Trump|
Added On - 11/11/2016 12:34:57 PM
So much for market concerns with a Trump Presidency.
|The RBA's Melbourne Cup Tip Is A Long Shot|
Added On - 10/28/2016 9:09:10 AM
Much as I would like to stir the pot by suggesting that the Reserve Bank of Australia should and will cut interest rates on Melbourne Cup day, I actually agree with market expectations that itís now a relative long shot
|Which Stocks Will Benefit From Higher Rates?|
Added On - 10/14/2016 12:42:35 PM
With the prospect of rising global bond yields over the coming year now a looming threat, it begs the question: which stocks might most benefit?
|Here Comes The Chinese Consumer|
Added On - 9/16/2016 11:46:02 AM
Although the greatest mining boom in Australia's history is winding down, if all continues to go well with China we should soon start enjoying the next great boom - growth in Chinese consumer spending, and on food in particular.
|The Fed's Conundrum|
Added On - 9/2/2016 3:39:27 PM
If the Fed finds more excuses not to raise rates, its happy days and Wall Street should continue to rise. But if the Fed does raise rates, the market outlook will be more challenged as rising bond yields could begin to pressure already elevated price to earnings valuations.
|A$, China, Iron Ore Continue To Defy Gravity|
Added On - 8/19/2016 1:06:06 PM
To my mind the Chinese economy, the Australian dollar and iron ore prices are all defying gravity at present and all crucially dependant on Chinese policy leaders being able to keep pumping up a bubble in debt-fuelled public sector investment.
|RBA Right To Cut, But Risks Remain|
Added On - 8/5/2016 1:04:36 PM
The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to cut the official cash rate has again typically had it fair share of critics.
|August Cut On The Cards|
Added On - 7/22/2016 1:28:22 PM
Unlike some other economists, I'm now less convinced the RBA will continue to cut interest rates much further heading into 2017.
|How Serious Is Brexit?|
Added On - 6/17/2016 10:54:22 AM
With the Brexit vote looming large, markets are understandably on tenterhooks as to the outcome.
|Rates Decision Hangs In The Balance|
Added On - 4/29/2016 4:05:51 PM
There are good arguments on both sides. But at the end of the day, the RBA's job is to target a rate of inflation between 2 to 3% over the foreseeable future. On present trends it will be hard to make such a forecast without a stronger economic growth trajectory, and that will likely only come with a lower profile for official interest rates.
|More Rate Cuts On The Cards|
Added On - 4/11/2016 4:23:47 PM
News this past week that the Reserve Bank of Australia is growing increasingly uncomfortable with the high Australia dollar suggests the barriers to another interest rate cut has been lowered somewhat further.
|How US Inflation Could Derail Equities|
Added On - 3/24/2016 3:51:15 PM
Investors are warned: we are only one or two economic report cards away from a potentially devastating reassessment of the global economic and financial market outlook.
Added On - 3/11/2016 2:45:35 PM
Despite apparently tight labour markets across the developed world, wage inflation has refused to budge. Let's call it the curious case of the wage that did not rise.
|Global Growth Running Out Of Steam|
Added On - 2/12/2016 1:16:15 PM
We're left with the following quandary: the locomotive of the global economy, the United States, is running out of track. And despite their best efforts to stoke their own furnaces, Japan and Europe will struggle to take up the slack.
|The Year Of The Stock Picker|
Added On - 1/29/2016 2:27:09 PM
As was the case last year, it is hard to see 2016 being anything other than a stock pickers market. Due to stretched equity valuations and a sluggish corporate earnings outlook, chances are that overall price growth for the Australian market will be fairly muted.
|US Earnings Outweigh China Worries|
Added On - 1/15/2016 3:02:25 PM
Although there are many reasons that might justify a corrective pullback in global equity markets, concerns over the Chinese economic outlook seems among the more flimsy. To my mind the Chinese economy is still enjoying an orderly economic slowdown and global market reactions to developments in Chinese financial markets are a gross over reaction.
|Reasons To Stay Optimistic In 2016|
Added On - 12/18/2015 12:25:03 PM
After digesting the key economic news events of recent weeks, I'm left with the following impression: I'm pessimistic on our economy in the short-term, but optimistic on the longer-term challenges we face.
|RBA 'Chilled' But Downside Risks Remain|
Added On - 12/4/2015 1:55:36 PM
It will take a deterioration both business sentiment and/or the unemployment trend for the RBA to be goaded into cutting interest rates next year. I still see risks pointed downward rather than upward, and another risk in this regard will be the fate of global stocks markets as the Fed embarks on higher interest rates in coming months.
|Commodities: Time To Buy?|
Added On - 11/13/2015 12:00:50 PM
Commodity prices, the Australia dollar, and resource stocks have already fallen a long way since their peaks and some adventurous analysts are prepared to speculate that they now represent value.
|Headwinds Building For The A$|
Added On - 10/30/2015 2:40:24 PM
To my mind, the $A appears on the cusp of its next major move lower.
|Reiterating Rates At 1.5% Call|
Added On - 10/16/2015 3:30:26 PM
Westpac's decision to unilaterally lift home loan interest rates by 0.2% - and the likelihood that the other majors will now follow - has raised the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will counter the move by lowering official interest rates.
|A Bear Market Beckons, But It's Not All Bad News|
Added On - 10/2/2015 4:06:14 PM
From peak to recent trough, the decline in the Australian share market over recent months has been 16.5% - or very close to the 'bear market' definition of a 20% decline. To my mind, we will likely see stocks dragged somewhat lower before this period of corrective market activity is over - we will, as least definitionally, tumble into a bear market.
|Fed Delay Risks Inflating Another Bubble|
Added On - 9/18/2015 2:01:25 PM
The Fed's decision to again delay raising official interest rates in September can only be described as ludicrous in view of the fact the US economy is almost near full employment. Indeed, America's jobless rate is a mere 5.1% and the economy is almost near fully employed.
|Local Economy Stuck In The Mud|
Added On - 9/4/2015 1:29:45 PM
What was once expected to be a temporary stock market correction - due to both overvaluation and imminent US interest rate hikes - appears at risk of turning into something more enduring if the Australian economy fails to lift itself from the mire sometime soon.
|Fed Hike In September Still A Good Bet|
Added On - 8/21/2015 1:12:29 PM
Markets interpreted the minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting as reducing the risk of a September interest rate 'lift off' - but to my mind that just seemed wishful thinking.
|Why The A$ Has Further To Fall|
Added On - 8/7/2015 12:57:14 PM
Every commentator around the country has noticed an intriguing change of language from the Reserve Bank of Australia when it comes to the Australian dollar. But by my reckoning, the implications of this change have been largely misinterpreted.
|Real Reform Not On The Political Agenda|
Added On - 7/17/2015 1:25:13 PM
To the immense frustration of the Federal Treasury I'm sure - not to mention corporate Australia - the current Federal Government seems happy to coast along and not ruffle any feathers after the debacle of last year's surprisingly unfair Federal Budget, which also contained a litany of broken election promises.
|Greece Should Default|
Added On - 6/26/2015 3:06:30 PM
Contrary to consensus market opinion, I'm hoping Greece does fail to seal an 11th hour agreement with its creditors. If it does so, it won't change any of Greece's underlying problems and will only 'kick the can down the road' a little further.
|RBA Turns Jawboning Focus To Property|
Added On - 6/12/2015 1:55:57 PM
The warnings by both Federal Treasury Secretary John Fraser and Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens over Sydney house prices in recent times has led some analysts to suggests interest rates are even less likely to fall further this year. But I have a completely different take of what these senior economic officials maybe up to.
|Bleak Data Confirms Lower Rates Ahead|
Added On - 5/29/2015 2:39:29 PM
The latest survey of business investment intentions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics made for very bleak reading. My call that the official cash rate will decline to 1.5% by year end and the $A will decline to around US68c remains firmly in place.
|Breaking Down The Budget|
Added On - 5/15/2015 1:38:13 PM
The current popular debate on the budget conflates a number of issues that need to be disentangled. Let me set the record straight.
|Sydney Property Concerns Unlikely To Deter RBA|
Added On - 5/1/2015 2:19:11 PM
Despite Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens' concerns about Sydney property prices, chances are the RBA will finally deliver the second official interest rate cut for the year on Tuesday afternoon.
|Leadership Failings Threaten Markets|
Added On - 4/17/2015 1:35:18 PM
We're only a few weeks from the next Federal Budget and already the omens are not good. Due to the slump in commodity prices, and ongoing general weakness in the economy, we know that the Budget will contain another confidence jarring write down in government revenues.
|The RBA's Dilemma|
Added On - 3/20/2015 2:10:03 PM
The differences in philosophy between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the United States Federal Reserve are becoming starker, which will not make of the job of the RBA any easier in coming months.
|RBA To Cut To 1.5%|
Added On - 3/6/2015 1:32:05 PM
I suspect the RBA will go further - and end up having to cut interest rates to 1.5% later this year. My view is based on the RBA's own reasoning. If my call on the economy is right and the RBA remains consistent in its thinking, it will have no choice but to cut rates substantially more.
|Fed Cautious But Rate Hikes Still Loom|
Added On - 2/20/2015 1:41:02 PM
To my mind, the case for monetary policy tightening in the United State is a 'no brainer'. So it bemuses me to see in the latest Fed policy minutes the world's most important central bank is still dithering over when to raise interest rates.
|RBA Helps Keep Risk-On|
Added On - 2/6/2015 3:02:37 PM
The 'surprise' decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates this week has mixed implications for the overall equity market outlook. But it does re-affirm two key themes I have been emphasising for the past year - go for yield and companies with offshore earnings exposure.
|The Outlook For 2015|
Added On - 12/19/2014 12:54:27 PM
The downbeat outlook for the economy as reflected in this past week's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia may well cut interest rates in the New Year - despite the recent declines in the Australian dollar.
|Deflation Fears Over Inflated|
Added On - 11/21/2014 1:58:59 PM
Stubbornly low global inflation has caused many central banks to keep policy settings highly stimulative, even at the risk of potentially creating asset bubbles.
|Investors Need to Be Wary of Crowds|
Added On - 11/7/2014 2:02:47 PM
The trend is your friend in financial markets, but investors also need to be wary when a strong consensus emerges on the likely price direction in any one market.
|Why The RBA Is Wrong About House Prices|
Added On - 10/24/2014 12:18:09 PM
If we're not careful the nervous nellies that continually worry about Australian house prices risk talking the economy into an even more serious downturn.
|Bassanese: Remain Bearish Gold|
Added On - 10/3/2014 1:22:37 PM
If you are still clinging to your gold investment on the view that central bank monetary stimulus will eventually produce an upsurge in inflation and gold prices, think again. And I'd also think again if you anticipate surging jewellery demand in China and India - or huge new buying from central banks - to save you.
|Bassanese: $A Relief|
Added On - 9/19/2014 1:56:23 PM
There is a sea change underway across the Australian investment landscape, and investors need to be ready to capitalise on the emerging new trends.
|Bassanese: The Currency Wars Continue|
Added On - 9/5/2014 12:04:06 PM
As has been the case in Japan, the decision by the European Central Bank to ratchet up its monetary stimulus program will do little to improve the region's ailing domestic demand outlook. The move is best seen as yet another round in the 'global currency wars', in which one economy tries to boost its own exports at the expense of others.
|Bassanese: The Flipside Of A Dovish Fed|
Added On - 8/22/2014 12:48:40 PM
Despite steady improvement in the United States economy, Fed officials and market analysts still talk of the first official US interest rate hike not taking place until 'sometime next year.'
|Bassanese: A Tough Mix|
Added On - 8/8/2014 1:49:38 PM
The Australian economy is not in a great place right now, as a lack of competitive pressure in many sectors is adding to inflation, while a lack of growth drivers is keeping unemployment relatively high.