Next Week At A Glance
While clearly all attention will be on Washington next week, expecting a swift outcome is akin to expecting tax reform legislation to be passed tomorrow. More likely the rush of news will become a trickle, and Wall Street will go back into policy-expectant hibernation.
The main focus will therefore be on the OPEC meeting in Vienna on Thursday night, which will determine whether or not the production cut agreement that saved the oil price will be extended by six months, or maybe even nine, as the Saudis and Russia have already flagged. Analysts are all bar unanimous in believing an extension will be agreed upon. The oil price has been sneaking back towards US$50/bbl in anticipation.
The minutes of the Fed meeting are out on Wednesday night. Were it last week Wall Street would likely have expected nothing that would change the assumption of a June rate hike. After this week, everything is at question on the fiscal side. The FOMC didn’t know that when it met.
US data releases next week include new and existing home sales, house prices, trade, durable goods, consumer sentiment and the Chicago Fed national and Richmond Fed indices. On Friday the March quarter GDP number will be revised, most likely upward given a revision in consumer spending.
The only thing of note on the local economic calendar next week is March quarter construction work done, giving us a clue that the GDP result is nigh. For some reason this data release is slated for a week earlier than usual, assuming that’s the case.
It’s a busy week on the local stock front nonetheless, featuring earnings results from all of ALS ((ALQ)), Collins Foods ((CKF)), Ozforex ((OFX)), Programmed Maintenance ((PRG)) and Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)).
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