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Greg Tolpigin
2017: So Much Uncertainty, So Many Opportunities
Added On - 1/20/2017 1:20:12 PM
So how does 2017 look? This year will be littered with more uncertainty than ever before. Equity markets have already surged in the last quarter of 2016, seeing many of our trading opportunities already unfold, while the growing populism movement across the globe means potentially big corrections.
Be Careful - Short Term Bearish Risks Increase
Added On - 10/28/2016 9:31:14 AM
The last time I wrote an Uber bearish note was in December 2015, providing an outlook for the start of 2016.
Index Watching Can Be Harmful - Long Alibaba
Added On - 9/23/2016 9:54:31 AM
I find myself more and more often overlooking the performance of the major indices and having a greater concentration on individual stocks and sectors. Like counting cards in a casino, the real advantage over the house is knowing when the deck is 'hot'.
Transaction Ltd: Exposure To Enormous Growth In India
Added On - 9/9/2016 9:29:06 AM
SMN and EMC are two stocks that I have focused on the most and now Transaction Ltd has begun to gather my attention for it is difficult to find pure investment plays exposed directly to rapidly growing Indian economy.
My Next SMN: Emefcy Group, A Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity
Added On - 8/26/2016 12:16:24 PM
Of the several hundred companies that have visited our offices and promoted themselves, I have been genuinely impressed on all fronts only twice in three years. The first time I invited SMN to learn more and the second in May this year when Emefcy Group (EMC) presented. I told them too.
Short Sellers: Our Best Friends Right Now
Added On - 8/19/2016 9:07:49 AM
Like all of us short sellers win and short sellers lose. Knowing when they will lose can be a very powerful timing tool to enter stocks that could experience a significant short covering squeeze
Structural Monitoring Systems: Slow and Steady Wins The Race
Added On - 8/12/2016 9:08:15 AM
It's hard to classify a 500% return in 12 months as 'slow and steady' but when compared to many other pump and dump, overnight sensations the performance of Structural Monitoring Systems (SMN) has been on cue and in keeping within our expectations.
All Roads Lead To Gold (And Silver...And Platinum)
Added On - 8/5/2016 8:55:39 AM
I have been a bond bull for a very long-time and in this column I even expressed the view that US Treasuries were the lowest risk, highest probability trade in global markets 18 months ago, 12 months ago and 6 months ago.
Oil To Follow Gold: Producers Outperform Commodities
Added On - 5/27/2016 3:47:25 PM
The oil price has bottomed and while it may not reach much above the $50/bbl level as this is where US shale oil producers are able to pump more oil at a profit, the price has clearly stabilized.
Never Fall In Love - No Matter How Exciting It Is
Added On - 5/13/2016 2:22:42 PM
Remember peak oil back in 2007/2008? The world was going to run out of oil. I know a man who was worth billions riding that wave and fell in love. Rode it all the way back down. Now the world is awash with oil and nothing to show for all those paper profits.
JB Hi-Fi: Short Squeeze Coming Or Another Peak?
Added On - 5/6/2016 3:25:43 PM
The combination of a share price on the verge of fresh record highs and a large short position is a recipe for a short squeeze. JB Hi-Fi (JBH) has these very ingredients and with a move to record highs, every short seller will be losing money, underwater and under pressure to cover.
Sitrep: Update On Our Trade Positions
Added On - 4/29/2016 3:53:20 PM
When investors begin to question the validity of the owning high p/e stocks they begin to look for value in low p/e and more stable earners. This explains much of the revival in the commodity stocks and in some of the auto related companies like Ford and General Motors. We are seeing improvement in agricultural and mining services companies as well.
Sell In May And Go Away - Rotation
Added On - 4/22/2016 3:15:04 PM
Volatility in equity markets tends to reach its lowest point in May and then generally start to rise thereafter and if there are major corrections in the offing, they almost always come in the August - September period.
Extending One's Trading Horizon In Search Of Profits - Tesla
Added On - 4/15/2016 2:44:55 PM
As a proprietary trader whose income solely relies on the accumulation of profits it is important to be able to continually find new trading opportunities AND profit for them
The US Isn't Leading The World This Time
Added On - 4/11/2016 4:38:53 PM
The upcoming earnings season for US banks and local banks will contain a few negative surprises. Just don't get caught thinking that current dividend payouts are etched in stone. Like voters, shareholders seem have a short memory too
Next Phase For Structural Monitoring Systems
Added On - 3/30/2016 12:00:41 PM
SMN's market cap is currently $157 million and is still on target for the $500 million I originally believed it could reach when I first discovered the company in 2014 (equivalent to $5.00).
The Fed Concedes Economy Not Perfect
Added On - 3/18/2016 12:18:37 PM
The Federal Reserve has backed away from its projection of four rate hikes this year, something we failed to see possible given the state of the US economy. They now only believe there will be two rate hikes this year.
A Great Trader Is One Who Still Makes Money When They Are Wrong
Added On - 3/4/2016 3:13:20 PM
I use that definition everyday when I trade and when I talk to other traders when discussing markets and assessing the portfolio of our proprietary trading desk. Now it might seem an impossible outcome of how can one make money when their trade view is wrong but the reality it is not. It's exactly the same as great athlete who can still win when not performing well.
Media Focus On Australian Housing Collapse
Added On - 2/26/2016 1:27:57 PM
There are consequences for every action. The consequences of negative interest rates will be the banks being unable to maintain their previous profit and margin levels. Sprinkle some real estate and currency volatility on a global scale and a potential change to negative gearing and the local impact will be seismic. I want to be wrong, but I have to call like I see it. And so far unfortunately the banks keep sliding.
Gold Surges As Classic Cars Finally Drop In Price
Added On - 2/12/2016 3:10:20 PM
A sign of a rampant market that is exhausted. Buyers are now becoming more discerning with their cash and that has been reflected in 2016 in equity markets as well.
Beware Of Banks - Warning Number 3
Added On - 2/5/2016 1:52:18 PM
Readers have probably grown tired of my consistent bearish outlook on markets since November 2015 where I warned about an impending market retreat of significant proportions. I warned that sky high prices for asset managers - like Magellan, Bankers Trust, Platinum, IOOF and Macquarie Bank - were all due for a serious drop. Blow me over, surprise, surprise they have declined almost 25% just in 2016.
Calculating Risks: What's Next After A Bounce?
Added On - 1/22/2016 2:53:11 PM
It's time for a potential bounce after the worst start for equity markets in history. Am I turning bullish? No way. We may see a very short-term tradeable bounce but on this rally.
Rewind: Who Was Bearish At End Of 2015?
Added On - 1/15/2016 1:36:24 PM
Every time I see an opportunity in the market I release strategy and presentation documents that entails the reasons behind the trade, how the trade will be structured and what the trade plan for profit and managing risk will be.
Fed Hike Too Little, Too Late - Beware Of 2016!
Added On - 12/18/2015 1:34:41 PM
After calling for an early Xmas rally to come in October following the August correction, we have been highlighting the extensive risks that have been building across financial markets. Some of these risks have been apparent all year long - such as our long-held view that a GFC-style collapse emerging in junk bonds and emerging markets - but now, we see more and more reasons for investors to turn cautious and in reality, bearish.
Market Fizzling, Changing Tides - Still Cautious
Added On - 12/14/2015 4:11:55 PM
For the past few months I have been warning about the next upcoming GFC-style collapse that will occur within the high yield corporate bond market (junk bonds) and emerging markets. It feels like I have written about nothing else.
Market Rally Fizzling, Changing Tides - Still Cautious
Added On - 12/4/2015 1:34:21 PM
In 2013 I wrote a piece called the Bullish Road Map for the next 3 years and it highlighted that the same macro circumstances that led to the 1995-1998 equity bull market were present once again at the beginning of 2013. Reviewing that research, there are no longer any of those factors remaining. And to me that's scary.
Do You Like Money? Then Don't Throw It Away
Added On - 11/27/2015 1:13:49 PM
I might ruffle a few feathers with today's column but in all seriousness readers need to know why 95% of traders lose money. I witnessed it time and time again in the past few weeks and I think it's time to tackle these issues head on. You could call it tough love.
Starpharma - The Next Big Australian Biotech
Added On - 11/20/2015 2:50:50 PM
One of the main keys to maximizing returns from your capital is not just about riding a stock for its entire rally, it's also about not committing capital during those periods when a stock is consolidating, resting or undergoing a lengthy consolidation.
Market Rally Fizzles, Cautious Times Return
Added On - 11/13/2015 10:58:48 AM
It is always good to have a break from trading for a couple of weeks and return with a clear mind to be able to reassess the position and direction of financial markets. It is even better to take a break having been on the right side of market direction rather than take a break to nurse losses.
Price Action That Repeats = Opportunity
Added On - 10/23/2015 1:08:54 PM
Looking at the charts and behaviour of stocks will ensure that you can train yourself to be aware of more than just one dimensional theoretical chart patterns. It helps add to your knowledge library and your profits too.
Late Stage Bull Market: Changes In Trends - Gold
Added On - 10/16/2015 3:20:05 PM
For the first time in several years I have gold and silver exposure but it is only small and with a $100 rally in gold I would certainly look to take profits.
Sometimes It Just Comes Together Nicely
Added On - 10/12/2015 1:09:58 PM
This week I will open up our proprietary trading book to give readers a sneak peek into the instruments we traded and the structure of these trades to give some insight into ways to maximise profits and do so with limited risk.
One Week On - Is 2015 Still Like 2011?
Added On - 10/2/2015 2:45:24 PM
Last week we highlighted the similarities between the performance of equity markets in 2011 with that of 2015 and it seems others this week have followed suit as I have read several articles comparing the two periods.
Tracking Similar To 2011
Added On - 9/25/2015 1:38:14 PM
Last week we highlighted the ramifications of no Fed rate hike which would be further weakness in equity markets and all week markets have been on the decline. The price action reminded me very much of what occurred back then during the European debt crisis and the S&P 500 downgrading US debt causing an aggressive correction in global markets.
FOMC: Rate Hike A Missed Opportunity?
Added On - 9/18/2015 1:33:15 PM
September 2015 will go down as a missed opportunity for the Fed to show confidence in the US economy and in fact, stabilize markets with some certainty and normality. All we are left with is more confusion.
Structural Monitoring Systems - Changing Aviation Safety
Added On - 9/4/2015 12:39:39 PM
In recent weeks and months I have been discussing global markets as a whole from a macro level identifying the risks and opportunities that exist as the world enters the late stages of what has been one of the most untrusted and hated bull markets of our time. This week I wanted to return back to local soil and discuss the only stock we hold in our proprietary trading book long-term.
Market Volatility: Being Wrong & Still Making Money
Added On - 8/28/2015 12:09:59 PM
We have been discussing in recent weeks and months different market thematics, trends and flows that have been underway in an attempt to better understand and predict where financial markets are headed. One of our key points had been that in a late stage bull market we always see dispersion. That is, a breakdown in the bullish correlations that most sectors and asset classes have.
Miners Turning To Tech - 1999 All Over Again?
Added On - 8/14/2015 2:56:44 PM
Micro-caps and in particular small miners, that are turning to buying technology companies in a bid to divert their business away from the resources collapse.
Global Money Flows - Winners And Losers
Added On - 8/7/2015 12:30:43 PM
The timing of a GFC-style unraveling in emerging markets may not occur for another 6 months after the Fed hikes 2 or 3 times but it is clearly an unsustainable situation and in our view a ticking time bomb.
Excelling In A Performance Related Field - Trading
Added On - 7/31/2015 12:51:02 PM
Trading - particularly for a living - is without doubt one of the toughest occupations but also the most rewarding.
Gold - How Low Can It Go?
Added On - 7/24/2015 1:43:33 PM
Gold has been on the back foot for several years now despite goldbugs consistently telling us to buy the precious metal as it is important hedge against inflation and the eventual demise in asset prices around the world.
Markets Brewing - Further Signs Of Euphoric Rally
Added On - 7/17/2015 12:38:14 PM
Conditions are near perfect for an enormous rally - particularly in some key sectors - over the course of the next six to nine months.
Nearmap Flying High In The USA
Added On - 7/3/2015 1:21:13 PM
Nearmap uses low flying planes to map out in extreme detail aerial shots of cities and geographical location which they then sell to Governments, construction companies, real estate agents, etc that wish to use these maps to better plan for change. The high level detail, coverage and regularity of their mapping sets them aside from the competition.
Signs Of A Late Stage Bull Market Which Means Euphoria Is Still To Come
Added On - 6/26/2015 1:33:15 PM
As some sectors begin to crack, the key is not to panic. It doesn't necessarily mean every sector has peaked. Pay attention to the price action in the sector you have exposure to and only stick with the market leaders.
Ctrl-Alt-Del The Reserve Bank of Australia
Added On - 6/19/2015 3:37:05 PM
The title may be controversial but it's time to sack the Reserve Bank board and replace it with the members of Federal Reserve. I said it, I mean it and I need to get it off my chest.
Best Ideas Are Often Ones You Can Actually See...
Added On - 6/12/2015 1:31:49 PM
Given the rapid growth seen in the likes of Tesla, the rapid adoption of technology by the industry and the innovation of driverless cars as a new concept there are upside risks to Mobileye well beyond the initial $61 target.
Yields Spiking - Warning Signs For Equities
Added On - 6/5/2015 2:37:42 PM
The move in bond yields should not be ignored because it has started to affect the entire spectrum of debt, from government through to corporate including both junk and investment grade.
Markets To Rally After Fed Hike, But Difficult Until Then
Added On - 5/29/2015 1:59:56 PM
Markets are absolutely focused on when the Federal Reserve will hike rates. And it seems most are expecting that this will be the start of a market correction. The reality is the exact opposite is likely to happen with the first rate hike likely to be a take off point for equity markets on a case of 'sell the rumor and buy the fact'.
Best European Exposure - Henderson Group
Added On - 5/22/2015 3:26:21 PM
The best performing region this year has been Europe as the European Central Bank has embarked on its own quantitative easing program.
Budget Benefits Car Dealers
Added On - 5/15/2015 1:10:32 PM
Automotive Holdings Group is only at the start of what we see as an exceptional appreciation where prices above $6.00 are likely.
Benefiting From The Green Energy Movement
Added On - 5/8/2015 1:32:35 PM
Considering that at a market cap of $65 million, growth exceeding 30% per annum a price earnings multiple of just of 10x is truly cheap and really underpins why Vmoto is primed for a huge re-rating.
New Car Sales At Record Highs - Who's Doing All The Selling?
Added On - 5/1/2015 2:03:29 PM
The bullish cocktail of rising property prices, population growth and record low interest rates is fueling a boom in the car industry. February and March recorded the highest ever new car sales for those respective months and the clear trend is for further records to be set.
The Silent Boom In Aluminium
Added On - 4/24/2015 3:06:56 PM
I have been a long-term bull on aluminium and there is a secretly quiet boom that has been occurring for over a decade.
Three Things Guaranteed In Life
Added On - 4/10/2015 1:54:18 PM
This week I wanted to focus on an excellent opportunity in the small cap area of the market. There are three things I like to say that are guaranteed - death, taxes and IT problems - given the new age world we now live in.
Australian Outperformance - Hard To Believe
Added On - 3/26/2015 4:45:14 PM
As we noted last week, the ASX 2000 has experienced severe underperformance to the US not only in the past two years, but since the GFC lows in March 2009.
Why It's Critical To Know Your Trading Environment
Added On - 3/20/2015 1:21:41 PM
Whenever, I have asked many of my successful trading peers - hedge fund managers, proprietary traders and wealth managers - what is the most common mistake traders make the most common response I receive is they are unaware of type of market environment they are trading in.
 

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