|Macron To Face Le Pen In French Run-Off Election|
Added On - 4/24/2017 3:08:04 PM
As suggested by opinion polls the centrist pro Euro candidate Emmanuel Macron will face far right anti Euro National Front candidate Marine Le Pen in the May 7 run-off vote for President of France.
|Bank Rates, Home Prices & Implications For Investors|
Added On - 4/7/2017 3:15:24 PM
For investors: bank term deposits offer poor returns; remain wary of the $A; and shares, commercial property and infrastructure continue to offer attractive yields.
|A Further 21 Great Investment Quotes|
Added On - 3/30/2017 1:04:41 PM
The basics of successful investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these into a sentence or two that brings them to life in a way that's easy to understand.
|The $US200 Trillion Global Debt Mountain|
Added On - 3/24/2017 3:32:56 PM
History tells us that the next major crisis will involve debt problems of some sort. But just because global debt is at record levels and that global bond yields have moved higher does not mean a crisis is imminent.
|Australian Housing - What Are The Key Issues?|
Added On - 3/17/2017 12:51:28 PM
The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely.
|Eurozone - Will They Or Won't They Break Up?|
Added On - 3/10/2017 1:25:37 PM
Elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany, possibly Italy and another Catalonian referendum will keep Eurozone break up risks in the headlines this year.
|The Australian Economy & Profits - 7 Reasons To Be Upbeat|
Added On - 3/3/2017 1:14:26 PM
A rebound in the economy in the December quarter confirms that Australia is continuing to avoid recession.
|The Chinese Economy Stabilises & Iron Ore Surges|
Added On - 2/17/2017 12:55:11 PM
Chinese economic growth stabilised in 2016. Expect Chinese growth this year of 6.5% and inflation of 3%. Key risks regarding China relate to policy tightening, the property cycle, rapid debt growth and a trade war with the US. All of these should be manageable.
|Where Are We In The Global Investment Cycle?|
Added On - 2/10/2017 4:04:10 PM
We are still a long way from the peak in the investment cycle. There is little sign of economic excess globally: underlying inflation is low; spare capacity remains; there is no sign of overinvestment; credit growth is modest; monetary conditions are not tight; share market valuations are okay; and investors are not euphoric.
|Is Donald Trump's Honeymoon With Investors Over?|
Added On - 2/3/2017 2:47:31 PM
The Trump honeymoon with investors is likely over with a short term period of correction/volatility likely to continue in shares, bond yields and the $US.
|The Fed Hikes & Trump Stimulus In 2017|
Added On - 12/15/2016 3:06:36 PM
After a year since the first Fed rate hike in this cycle, the Fed has finally moved the Fed Funds rate up again from a range of 0.25-0.5% to 0.5-0.75%. The move reflects confidence in the ongoing recovery in the US economy.
|Review Of 2016, Outlook For 2017|
Added On - 12/9/2016 3:38:19 PM
2016 started badly for investors with worries about global growth and deflation. But global growth turned out okay &, despite political events, rising bond yields & disappointing Australian growth, the end result has been a constrained but okay year for diversified investors.
|The 9 (Bad) Habits Of Highly Ineffective Investors|
Added On - 11/25/2016 12:52:33 PM
Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. As investment markets are forward looking its often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head.
|The End Of The Super Cycle Bull Market In Bonds?|
Added On - 11/18/2016 3:03:21 PM
There are several implications for investors from the likely end of the super cycle bull market in bonds.
|Donald Trump Elected President: Implications For Investors & Australia|
Added On - 11/10/2016 8:30:55 AM
Donald Trump's election as President of the United States risks ushering in a period of policy uncertainty which could cause further share market weakness in the short term.
|Oliver's Insights: The US Election & Investment Markets|
Added On - 11/3/2016 1:03:36 PM
While some of Trump's economic policies could provide a fiscal and supply side stimulus to the US economy, a Trump victory is likely to be initially negative for shares and favour safe havens like bonds and the US dollar as investors would fear his policies on trade in particular.
|5 Ways To Help Manage The Noise|
Added On - 10/26/2016 11:07:34 AM
The combination of a massive ramp up in financial information combined with our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news is making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more short term.
|The US Presidential Election - Implications For Investors|
Added On - 9/23/2016 12:25:42 PM
Some of Trump's economic policies make sense and could be positive for the US economy and shares but this would rely on Congress checking his more radical policies (particularly on trade, immigration and foreign policy).
|Shares Hit Another Rough Patch|
Added On - 9/15/2016 1:14:30 PM
After a period of relative calm share markets have seen a return to volatility lately. This has gone hand in hand with a back-up in bond yields. This note looks at the main drivers and how long this period of weakness may last.
|7 Reasons For Optimism On The Australian Economy|
Added On - 8/31/2016 4:46:35 PM
The mostly gloomy debate around the Australian economy often gives the impression we are in a constant state of crisis. But there are reasons to be reasonably optimistic about the Australian economy and Australian assets.
|The Great Policy Rotation|
Added On - 8/26/2016 12:57:31 PM
A shift in emphasis away from monetary policy and towards a greater role for fiscal policy could be positive if it boosts inflation and nominal growth. This would mean bond yields will start to bottom out and drift higher over time.
|The Constrained Medium Term Return Outlook |
Added On - 8/19/2016 12:38:05 PM
For investors the key is to: have realistic return expectations; allow that inflation is also low so real returns aren't down as much; focus on asset allocation; and focus on assets with decent & sustainable income.
|Infrastructure Investing In A World Of Low Rates|
Added On - 8/5/2016 3:22:48 PM
Infrastructure provides an attractive investment, offering solid yield based prospective returns and a relatively low correlation to shares making it a good diversifier.
|Megatrends Impacting Investment Markets|
Added On - 7/29/2016 12:36:22 PM
Most Megatrends are constraining growth and hence investor returns. However, technological innovation remains positive for profits and some of these point to inflation bottoming.
|The Investment Outlook - It's Not All That Bad!|
Added On - 7/22/2016 1:01:52 PM
There are nine reasons for optimism: okay growth, easier for longer monetary policy, rising prospects for easier fiscal policy globally, we may have seen the worst of the commodity bear market, deflation risks are likely receding, the global profit slump may be close to over, share valuations are okay, investors seem to be getting used to a falling Chinese Renminbi and there is still a lot of bearishness around.
|Australia's Messy Election|
Added On - 7/8/2016 1:07:44 PM
This note takes a look at the implications of Australia's Federal election. The Australian Federal election has delivered a messy result suggesting an even more difficult Senate for the Coalition if it is able to form government and the risk of return to minority government.
|Investment markets and key developments over the past week|
Added On - 7/1/2016 12:25:18 PM
Share markets rebounded over the past week as worries about Brexit leading to global financial and economic chaos faded somewhat.
|Brexit Wins - Implications For The World, Australia And Investors|
Added On - 6/27/2016 1:46:13 PM
The key for investors is to either look through the short term noise caused by the Brexit decision or look for investment opportunities that it throws up as investment markets become oversold.
|Investment markets and key developments over the past week|
Added On - 6/27/2016 11:58:45 AM
The past week has been dominated by first the anticipation that Britain would vote to Remain within the European Union followed by an abrupt reaction in financial markets as the referendum saw the Leave vote win by 52% to 48%.
|Britain votes to leave the European Union |
Added On - 6/24/2016 5:00:05 PM
Weekly economic and market update - Britain votes to leave the European Union
|Where Are We In The Roller Coaster Of Investor Emotion?|
Added On - 6/8/2016 12:30:32 PM
Investor sentiment right now towards shares still seems to be relatively cautious - nothing like the 'euphoria' seen at major market tops.
|The Outlook For Shares & Growth Assets|
Added On - 6/3/2016 3:28:49 PM
After a strong 12 to 14% rebound in share markets from the February lows we could be in for a rough patch over the months ahead. However, many of the current threats are well known and most share markets are offering reasonable value.
|RBA Rate Cuts, Inflation Targets, Deflation And Are Central Banks Out Of Ammo?|
Added On - 5/20/2016 4:12:59 PM
The low interest rate environment means the chase for yield is likely to continue supporting commercial property, infrastructure and shares offering sustainable high dividends.
|The 2016 Australian Federal Election & Investors|
Added On - 5/10/2016 5:39:46 PM
The starker choice at this election between smaller government, lower taxes and mild economic reform under the Coalition, and larger government, higher taxes and more intervention in the economy under Labor suggest greater uncertainty this time around.
|Why Have Australian Shares Underperformed Global Shares? Will It Continue?|
Added On - 5/6/2016 3:07:22 PM
It's too early to say the underperformance by Australian shares is over, but some of the drivers may be waning.
|The 2016-17 Australian Budget - Putting Popularity Ahead Of Austerity|
Added On - 5/4/2016 7:34:22 AM
The 2016-17 Budget provides some pre-election goodies but holds the line on spending growth. But it doesn't get us any closer to getting the deficit under control with risks remaining around the revenue assumptions. The budget strategy's durability also faces uncertainty given a likely July 2 election.
|Emotional Investing Magnifies Volatility|
Added On - 4/15/2016 3:24:42 PM
There are several points to note when thinking about volatility and the risk of not meeting your investment goals.
|The A$ - Up For Now, But Likely To Resume Its Long Term Downswing|
Added On - 4/1/2016 12:48:57 PM
A more dovish Fed, better Australian economic data, higher commodity prices and the reversal of high levels of shorts have seen the $A gain 12% from its January low. It could hit $US0.80 in the short term. However, the bounce is unlikely to be sustained.
|China In Transition From Manufacturing To Services
Added On - 3/24/2016 5:03:19 PM
China's economy is seeing an ongoing transition from manufacturing & investment to services & consumption at the same time that it is continuing to deregulate.
|Crash Calls For Property - Are They Valid?|
Added On - 3/11/2016 2:08:01 PM
The combination of high house prices, the strong gains of the last few years in Sydney and Melbourne, low rental yields and possible changes to tax concessions around property mean investors need to be careful.
|The Lucky Country Holding Up Pretty Well|
Added On - 3/4/2016 3:31:43 PM
The Australian economy grew a surprisingly strong 3% through 2015, as non-mining activity and export volumes helped offset the slump in mining investment.
|Global Politics In The Year Of The Monkey|
Added On - 2/26/2016 1:43:11 PM
There is a seemingly long list of global political issues that could affect investors this year: the US presidential election, a vote on Brexit, the rise of populism in Europe, tensions in the South China Sea, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and an election in Australia. The bulk of these issues should turn out okay for investors, but it's worth keeping a close eye on them.
|Shares Hitting Bear Market Territory|
Added On - 2/12/2016 1:32:22 PM
The key for investors is to recognise that periodic declines in share markets are normal, that selling after big declines just locks in a loss, that dividend income from a well-diversified portfolio is little affected by share market volatility and that income flow from Australian shares is now very high relative to bank deposits.
|The Importance Of Decent Investment Yield|
Added On - 2/5/2016 1:42:47 PM
Assets with decent and sustainable yields are attractive in an environment of return volatility as they provide greater return certainty.
|The Plunging Oil Price - Why And What It Means|
Added On - 1/29/2016 2:06:40 PM
Oil prices are down more than 70% from their levels two years ago driven by a combination of a surge in supply relative to demand and a rise in the value of the $US. Further weakness down to $US20/barrel is possible, but we are getting closer to the point where supply slows.
|2016 - A List Of Lists Regarding The Macro Investment Outlook|
Added On - 1/22/2016 2:44:20 PM
2016 should end much better than it has started off for investors, ultimately providing ok investment returns, but expect a continued volatile ride.
|A Rough Start To The Year|
Added On - 1/13/2016 3:27:12 PM
The key for investors is to recognise that shares offer a higher return potential after sharp falls, selling after big declines just locks in a loss and that dividend income from a well-diversified portfolio is little affected by share market volatility.
|The US Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates|
Added On - 12/18/2015 12:12:10 PM
After much delay and much warning the Fed has finally raised the Fed Funds rate from a range of 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. The move signals confidence in the ongoing recovery in the US economy after the GFC.
|Review Of 2015, Outlook For 2016|
Added On - 12/4/2015 1:17:25 PM
Most growth assets, including shares are likely to trend higher, resulting in reasonable returns. But volatility is likely to remain high as the easy gains are well and truly behind us.
|5 Reasons Not To Be Too Worried About The Fed|
Added On - 11/20/2015 2:42:30 PM
However, there are several reasons not to be too concerned about the Fed: rate hikes will be conditional on the US economy continuing to improve and the process is likely to be gradual; history tells us it is only when monetary policy becomes tight that it becomes a major problem; other major countries are still easing; the strength of the $US will constrain the Fed; and shares outside the US are cheap indicating there are still plenty of opportunities for investors.