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Shane Oliver
A Year On From Brexit - What Have We Learned?
Added On - 6/22/2017 11:27:42 AM
It's now 12 months since the British voted to leave the European Union, an event that some saw as setting off a domino effect of other European countries looking to do the same.
The Australian Economy Hits Another Rough Patch
Added On - 6/16/2017 1:42:15 PM
Despite numerous forecasts for an 'unavoidable' recession following the end of the mining boom early this decade, the Australian economy has continued to defy the doomsters and keep growing. However, recently it seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch.
The Perils Of Forecasting
Added On - 6/2/2017 2:58:15 PM
It is always tempting to believe that you or someone else can perfectly forecast the market. However, as Ringo Starr said 'it don't come easy'!
The Trump Bump & Shares
Added On - 5/25/2017 1:23:34 PM
It's now six months since Donald Trump was elected President of the US and four months since he was inaugurated. In many ways, it has gone better than feared.
3 Reasons Why The Risks For The A$ Are Still On The Downside
Added On - 5/18/2017 12:42:42 PM
Given the downside risks for the $A it makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via unhedged global investments.
Budget 2017 - Pragmatism & Fairness Rule
Added On - 5/12/2017 12:53:26 PM
The 2017-18 Budget has much to make it popular. In fact, the goodies make it almost feel like a pre-election rather than a post-election budget. The transformation from the austerity to end 'the age of entitlement' of the 2014 budget to the 'fairness, security and opportunity' of this Budget has been profound.
Are Shares Offering A Premium Over Bonds?
Added On - 5/5/2017 12:39:20 PM
It is often thought that shares should return more than 5% per annum (pa) over bonds, because this is what their excess return has averaged over much of the post war period, but this likely exaggerates the required excess return for shares.
Global Growth Looking Healthier
Added On - 4/28/2017 1:32:48 PM
Stronger global growth is positive for Australia and supports the case for the RBA to remain on hold. But with underlying inflationary pressures remaining very low and underemployment very high a rate hike is unlikely until second-half next year.
Macron To Face Le Pen In French Run-Off Election
Added On - 4/24/2017 3:08:04 PM
As suggested by opinion polls the centrist pro Euro candidate Emmanuel Macron will face far right anti Euro National Front candidate Marine Le Pen in the May 7 run-off vote for President of France.
Bank Rates, Home Prices & Implications For Investors
Added On - 4/7/2017 3:15:24 PM
For investors: bank term deposits offer poor returns; remain wary of the $A; and shares, commercial property and infrastructure continue to offer attractive yields.
A Further 21 Great Investment Quotes
Added On - 3/30/2017 1:04:41 PM
The basics of successful investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these into a sentence or two that brings them to life in a way that's easy to understand.
The $US200 Trillion Global Debt Mountain
Added On - 3/24/2017 3:32:56 PM
History tells us that the next major crisis will involve debt problems of some sort. But just because global debt is at record levels and that global bond yields have moved higher does not mean a crisis is imminent.
Australian Housing - What Are The Key Issues?
Added On - 3/17/2017 12:51:28 PM
The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely.
Eurozone - Will They Or Won't They Break Up?
Added On - 3/10/2017 1:25:37 PM
Elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany, possibly Italy and another Catalonian referendum will keep Eurozone break up risks in the headlines this year.
The Australian Economy & Profits - 7 Reasons To Be Upbeat
Added On - 3/3/2017 1:14:26 PM
A rebound in the economy in the December quarter confirms that Australia is continuing to avoid recession.
The Chinese Economy Stabilises & Iron Ore Surges
Added On - 2/17/2017 12:55:11 PM
Chinese economic growth stabilised in 2016. Expect Chinese growth this year of 6.5% and inflation of 3%. Key risks regarding China relate to policy tightening, the property cycle, rapid debt growth and a trade war with the US. All of these should be manageable.
Where Are We In The Global Investment Cycle?
Added On - 2/10/2017 4:04:10 PM
We are still a long way from the peak in the investment cycle. There is little sign of economic excess globally: underlying inflation is low; spare capacity remains; there is no sign of overinvestment; credit growth is modest; monetary conditions are not tight; share market valuations are okay; and investors are not euphoric.
Is Donald Trump's Honeymoon With Investors Over?
Added On - 2/3/2017 2:47:31 PM
The Trump honeymoon with investors is likely over with a short term period of correction/volatility likely to continue in shares, bond yields and the $US.
The Fed Hikes & Trump Stimulus In 2017
Added On - 12/15/2016 3:06:36 PM
After a year since the first Fed rate hike in this cycle, the Fed has finally moved the Fed Funds rate up again from a range of 0.25-0.5% to 0.5-0.75%. The move reflects confidence in the ongoing recovery in the US economy.
Review Of 2016, Outlook For 2017
Added On - 12/9/2016 3:38:19 PM
2016 started badly for investors with worries about global growth and deflation. But global growth turned out okay &, despite political events, rising bond yields & disappointing Australian growth, the end result has been a constrained but okay year for diversified investors.
The 9 (Bad) Habits Of Highly Ineffective Investors
Added On - 11/25/2016 12:52:33 PM
Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. As investment markets are forward looking its often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head.
The End Of The Super Cycle Bull Market In Bonds?
Added On - 11/18/2016 3:03:21 PM
There are several implications for investors from the likely end of the super cycle bull market in bonds.
Donald Trump Elected President: Implications For Investors & Australia
Added On - 11/10/2016 8:30:55 AM
Donald Trump's election as President of the United States risks ushering in a period of policy uncertainty which could cause further share market weakness in the short term.
Oliver's Insights: The US Election & Investment Markets
Added On - 11/3/2016 1:03:36 PM
While some of Trump's economic policies could provide a fiscal and supply side stimulus to the US economy, a Trump victory is likely to be initially negative for shares and favour safe havens like bonds and the US dollar as investors would fear his policies on trade in particular.
5 Ways To Help Manage The Noise
Added On - 10/26/2016 11:07:34 AM
The combination of a massive ramp up in financial information combined with our natural inclination to zoom in on negative news is making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more short term.
The US Presidential Election - Implications For Investors
Added On - 9/23/2016 12:25:42 PM
Some of Trump's economic policies make sense and could be positive for the US economy and shares but this would rely on Congress checking his more radical policies (particularly on trade, immigration and foreign policy).
Shares Hit Another Rough Patch
Added On - 9/15/2016 1:14:30 PM
After a period of relative calm share markets have seen a return to volatility lately. This has gone hand in hand with a back-up in bond yields. This note looks at the main drivers and how long this period of weakness may last.
7 Reasons For Optimism On The Australian Economy
Added On - 8/31/2016 4:46:35 PM
The mostly gloomy debate around the Australian economy often gives the impression we are in a constant state of crisis. But there are reasons to be reasonably optimistic about the Australian economy and Australian assets.
The Great Policy Rotation
Added On - 8/26/2016 12:57:31 PM
A shift in emphasis away from monetary policy and towards a greater role for fiscal policy could be positive if it boosts inflation and nominal growth. This would mean bond yields will start to bottom out and drift higher over time.
The Constrained Medium Term Return Outlook
Added On - 8/19/2016 12:38:05 PM
For investors the key is to: have realistic return expectations; allow that inflation is also low so real returns aren't down as much; focus on asset allocation; and focus on assets with decent & sustainable income.
Infrastructure Investing In A World Of Low Rates
Added On - 8/5/2016 3:22:48 PM
Infrastructure provides an attractive investment, offering solid yield based prospective returns and a relatively low correlation to shares making it a good diversifier.
Megatrends Impacting Investment Markets
Added On - 7/29/2016 12:36:22 PM
Most Megatrends are constraining growth and hence investor returns. However, technological innovation remains positive for profits and some of these point to inflation bottoming.
The Investment Outlook - It's Not All That Bad!
Added On - 7/22/2016 1:01:52 PM
There are nine reasons for optimism: okay growth, easier for longer monetary policy, rising prospects for easier fiscal policy globally, we may have seen the worst of the commodity bear market, deflation risks are likely receding, the global profit slump may be close to over, share valuations are okay, investors seem to be getting used to a falling Chinese Renminbi and there is still a lot of bearishness around.
Australia's Messy Election
Added On - 7/8/2016 1:07:44 PM
This note takes a look at the implications of Australia's Federal election. The Australian Federal election has delivered a messy result suggesting an even more difficult Senate for the Coalition if it is able to form government and the risk of return to minority government.
Investment markets and key developments over the past week
Added On - 7/1/2016 12:25:18 PM
Share markets rebounded over the past week as worries about Brexit leading to global financial and economic chaos faded somewhat.
Brexit Wins - Implications For The World, Australia And Investors
Added On - 6/27/2016 1:46:13 PM
The key for investors is to either look through the short term noise caused by the Brexit decision or look for investment opportunities that it throws up as investment markets become oversold.
Investment markets and key developments over the past week
Added On - 6/27/2016 11:58:45 AM
The past week has been dominated by first the anticipation that Britain would vote to Remain within the European Union followed by an abrupt reaction in financial markets as the referendum saw the Leave vote win by 52% to 48%.
Britain votes to leave the European Union
Added On - 6/24/2016 5:00:05 PM
Weekly economic and market update - Britain votes to leave the European Union
Where Are We In The Roller Coaster Of Investor Emotion?
Added On - 6/8/2016 12:30:32 PM
Investor sentiment right now towards shares still seems to be relatively cautious - nothing like the 'euphoria' seen at major market tops.
The Outlook For Shares & Growth Assets
Added On - 6/3/2016 3:28:49 PM
After a strong 12 to 14% rebound in share markets from the February lows we could be in for a rough patch over the months ahead. However, many of the current threats are well known and most share markets are offering reasonable value.
RBA Rate Cuts, Inflation Targets, Deflation And Are Central Banks Out Of Ammo?
Added On - 5/20/2016 4:12:59 PM
The low interest rate environment means the chase for yield is likely to continue supporting commercial property, infrastructure and shares offering sustainable high dividends.
The 2016 Australian Federal Election & Investors
Added On - 5/10/2016 5:39:46 PM
The starker choice at this election between smaller government, lower taxes and mild economic reform under the Coalition, and larger government, higher taxes and more intervention in the economy under Labor suggest greater uncertainty this time around.
Why Have Australian Shares Underperformed Global Shares? Will It Continue?
Added On - 5/6/2016 3:07:22 PM
It's too early to say the underperformance by Australian shares is over, but some of the drivers may be waning.
The 2016-17 Australian Budget - Putting Popularity Ahead Of Austerity
Added On - 5/4/2016 7:34:22 AM
The 2016-17 Budget provides some pre-election goodies but holds the line on spending growth. But it doesn't get us any closer to getting the deficit under control with risks remaining around the revenue assumptions. The budget strategy's durability also faces uncertainty given a likely July 2 election.
Emotional Investing Magnifies Volatility
Added On - 4/15/2016 3:24:42 PM
There are several points to note when thinking about volatility and the risk of not meeting your investment goals.
The A$ - Up For Now, But Likely To Resume Its Long Term Downswing
Added On - 4/1/2016 12:48:57 PM
A more dovish Fed, better Australian economic data, higher commodity prices and the reversal of high levels of shorts have seen the $A gain 12% from its January low. It could hit $US0.80 in the short term. However, the bounce is unlikely to be sustained.
China In Transition From Manufacturing To Services
Added On - 3/24/2016 5:03:19 PM
China's economy is seeing an ongoing transition from manufacturing & investment to services & consumption at the same time that it is continuing to deregulate.
Crash Calls For Property - Are They Valid?
Added On - 3/11/2016 2:08:01 PM
The combination of high house prices, the strong gains of the last few years in Sydney and Melbourne, low rental yields and possible changes to tax concessions around property mean investors need to be careful.
The Lucky Country Holding Up Pretty Well
Added On - 3/4/2016 3:31:43 PM
The Australian economy grew a surprisingly strong 3% through 2015, as non-mining activity and export volumes helped offset the slump in mining investment.
Global Politics In The Year Of The Monkey
Added On - 2/26/2016 1:43:11 PM
There is a seemingly long list of global political issues that could affect investors this year: the US presidential election, a vote on Brexit, the rise of populism in Europe, tensions in the South China Sea, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and an election in Australia. The bulk of these issues should turn out okay for investors, but it's worth keeping a close eye on them.
 

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