Diary: Electoral Wash-Up, Fedspeak, China Manufacturing
A quiet week for markets, but the wash-up of the German elections (and to a lesser extent NZ in our part of the woods) will dominate thinking for the early part of the week.
There’s also the usual end of month data in the eurozone and Japan, and the US and the start of month surveys of Chinese manufacturing late in the week.
Fed chair Janet Yellen headlines a series of speeches by central bankers this week. European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi addresses the European parliament in Brussels tonight, our time.
The Bank of England hosts a monetary policy conference in London on Thursday to reflect on 20years of its independence. BoE governor Mark Carney delivers the opening remarks and Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer and Mr Draghi are also expected to speak at the two-day gathering. Reserve Bank deputy Governor, Guy Debelle speaks at the same conference.
In Canada the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz’s speaks later in the week. The Bank of Canada recently boosted its key interest rate.
Saturday is one of the more important days of the year for the Australian stockmarket that’s when a handful of companies report (as well as the end of the third quarter of the year and the first quarter for the June 30 balancing companies, especially resource groups.
But for the NAB, ANZ, Westpac, it's the end of their financial years and what has been a dramatic year at times for the institutions and their shareholders.
The quality of these results (and a first quarter trading update from the Commonwealth) will impact market sentiment along with the
Macquarie balances its half year for 2017-18, CSR balances its first half as well, while Orica rules off its full year books.
Reporting this week are Premier Investments later today (the full year results will good, but the question of its stake in the struggling Myer will be front of mind for investors). Nufarm also reports its full year figures on Wednesday.
Elsewhere in the corporate arena, the Tabcorp-Tatts merger proposal is back in the Australian Competition Tribunal this week and it is looking like the idea might not make the timetable for a shareholder vote by around October 18.
And the decision from the Foreign Investment Review board on the CBS purchase of Ten becomes a live issue from Thursday onwards (which is a month after the application was lodged).
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases March quarter population data on Wednesday and August job vacancy data on Thursday. On Friday the Reserve Bank releases its credit figures for August.
And the results of the Kiwi election won’t be full known and the shape of the new government for several weeks.
In the US, watch for a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (Tuesday night our time), house price data for July and the last consumer confidence report for September (both also Tuesday night). There’s also durable goods orders (on Wednesday).
Friday night sees the latest data on personal spending for August.
The most important of this data is the August core private consumption deflator which may be a bit stronger at 0.2% month on month thanks to Hurricane Harvey, but with the annual inflation rate remaining still low at 1.4%.
In Germany the focus will shift to who Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union will form a coalition with in the aftermath of Germany’s election.
On the data front in the Eurozone, there are economic confidence readings for September and flash data on inflation and unemployment on Thursday and Friday.
In Japan, data releases this week will be inflation, employment/unemployment, retail sales and spending, as well as industrial production. All are expected to confirm the underlying health of the Japanese economy. There could also be a snap election announced this week.
Chinese business conditions PMIs (are due Friday and Saturday) for September are likely to show a modest easing in growth.
Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.
At the AFR he was a finance writer, Finance Editor, News Editor and Chief of Staff. At the Nine Network he was supervising producer of Business Sunday for more than 16 years. He has also written for other online and analogue print publications here and overseas.