Diary: RBA, US Jobs, Global Manufacturing
US jobs, Australian interest rates and the health of global manufacturing will all be reviewed this week. That will be after start of the month global manufacturing surveys were issued yesterday and last night and showed the activity remains solid.
That was especially so in China where its two surveys were issued late last week ahead of this week’s week-long holiday. The Euro fell after a violent part poll in Catalonia in Spain left questions about the stability of the country.
In Australia the Reserve Bank will leave its key interest rate on hold for a 14th week in a row when the board meets later today.
The post-meeting statement from Governor Phil Lowe will mention improving global growth, strong business confidence and jobs growth, the RBA’s own expectations for a growth pick up and already high levels of household debt.
Record low wages growth, low underlying inflation, the impending slowdown in housing construction, the weight of that debt on consumer spending and the stronger $A argue against a rate hike.
“We agree that the next move in rates is likely to be up, but for now the downside risks are still significant and as such we remain of the view that its way too early to start raising rates just yet,’ the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver wrote at the weekend.
On the data front in Australia, the CoreLogic home price data for September and the first three quarters of the year showed some continued moderation in Sydney.
August building approvals are out later today, retail sales and trade data, also for August.
Car sales figures for last month will be out later in the week.
In the US, the focus will be on September jobs data (Friday), but the figures will not be taken seriously because of the likely distortions caused by the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
For that reason, Dr Oliver says we can expect payrolls to be up by a low 90,000 last month, with the unemployment remaining steady at 4.4% though. Wages growth is likely to be rise slightly to 2.6% year on year from 2.5%.
Fed Chair Yellen has another speech on Wednesday, while several other Fed members are also due to speak this week. These include Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan, governor Jerome Powell, Philly Fed president Patrick Harker and New York Fed president Bill Dudley.
In the Eurozone, expect unemployment (Monday) to have fallen to 9% in August.
In Asia, The Bank of Japan’s the September quarter Tankan business conditions survey is out today and is expected to show continued strength.
The Reserve Bank of India meets and is expected to hold its key interest rate at a seven-year low of 6% despite signs of rising consumer inflation.
This week also brings the Nobel Prizes, the annual awards bestowed by Swedish and Norwegian institutions in recognition of advances in the fields of science and arts and for humanitarian achievements.
Last night the committee awarded the prize in physiology or medicine, on tonight, its the award in physics, followed by chemistry on Wednesday and the peace prize on Friday. The prize for economics will be awarded the nexr week, while the date for literature has yet to be announced.
Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.
At the AFR he was a finance writer, Finance Editor, News Editor and Chief of Staff. At the Nine Network he was supervising producer of Business Sunday for more than 16 years. He has also written for other online and analogue print publications here and overseas.