As expected the good autumn and winter rains in parts of NSW, Victoria and South Australia, have revived the hopes for the 2007-08 winter grain crops.
But already there are signs the important wheat crop will be under initial forecasts for the 2007-08 harvest
Below average rains in Queensland and Western Australia may cut the wheat harvest to 22.5 million tonnes, from the first estimate of 25 million tonnes.
Rain is also needed on the north-western slopes on NSW, one of the country's major growing areas.
It and the Queensland growing areas across the border have mostly missed out on the soaking rain along the NSW coast this month.
Some forecasters claim a more accurate figure might end up around 20 million tonnes of wheat harvested, assuming average follow-up rains.
But the news helped push world wheat prices down under $US6 a bushel in Chicago overnight. They finished at $US5.97.
The drought has already hacked into the size of the summer crops.
But Federal Government's principal commodity forecaster,ABARE (the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics), is still forecasting a significant rebound from the 2006-07 harvest which was slashed by the drought.
ABARE says it expects the 2007-08 winter crops to jump by 21 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes because of the improved weather conditions.
ABARE said autumn rainfall across the majority of NSW, Victoria and South Australia has provided an ideal start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season.
But continued dry conditions throughout Queensland and parts of WA meant that winter crop prospects in those states are below average at this stage.
ABARE says thedrought last summer and much of autumn will have cut the major summer crops by 57 per cent to 1.89 million tonnes.
But for the season ahead ABARE's crop production forecasts assume a return to average crop yields and the amount of land planted in Australia is forecast to increase by around 10 per cent to just over 20 million hectares for the 2007-08 harvest.
Wheat production in 2007-08 is forecast to recover to 22.5 million tonnes from the drought affected 9.82 million tonnes in 2006-07, but still less than the 25.4 million tonnes harvested in 2005-06.
That's in line with the forecasts issued in may and last week by the US Department of Agriculture in its forecasts.
The area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 11 per cent to 12.4 million hectares; barley and canola areas are also forecast to increase by 10 per cent and seven per cent respectively.
Barley production is forecast to increase to around nine million tonnes, and canola production is forecast to be around 1.4 million tonnes, almost triple the amount produced in the previous season.
Mr Glyde said the outlook for winter crops after last year's drought is in marked contrast to the outcomes from recently harvested summer crops.
Of the major summer crops, grain sorghum production is estimated to have declined by around 52 per cent to 952,000 tonnes, and cotton production by around 54 per cent, to its lowest level in almost 20 years.
‘The rice crop was severely depleted by lack of water. However,favourable growing conditions resulted in above average rice yields,' Mr Glyde said.
Total rice production fell by 83 per cent, to around 167 000 tonnes for the 2006-07 season.
This will be good news for the likes of ABB Grain, GrainCorp, Futuris/Elders Bank, AWB and Incitec Pivot, the big fertilizer supplier.
But according to ABARE, fertilizer supplies have emerged as a concern
"Fertiliser supplies have been a widespread concern, holding up sowing activity in some states as growers waited for shipments to arrive.
"Generally, however, the high price of fertiliser has not resulted in a reduction in intended planting area, as grower confidence in the season has prompted most growers to go ahead with intended plantings.
"However, some growers are expected to reduce application rates to reduce costs."
