The equine flu crisis will not only hurt racing, harness racing or pacing, and non- thoroughbred activities, it is going to damage the finances of the big two of wagering, the ailing Tabcorp and the just-merged Tattersall's-UniTab company.
As well, Woolworths and Coles could be hit as both have extensive hotel interests, especially Woolies.
And the ING Real Estate Entertainment Trust has 23 hotels in NSW and Queensland, which leave it exposed.
Just how much damage will be done will depend on the length of the bans on racing while the flu outbreak is contained and beaten.
With more cases being reported in NSW and now possibly Queensland, hopes for a quick end to the bans by next weekend look optimistic. Hundreds of cases, real and potential, have been reported in NSW and next weekend's opening to the Spring Carnival looks like being cancelled.
Tabcorp last week revealed poor 2007 profits, especially in its wagering business, and especially in NSW where the flu problems seem to have started and at this stage, are worse than anywhere else.
Tattersall's and UniTab merged during the year and are due to reveal their 2007 figures this Thursday.
Some of the listed online gambling companies such as Centrebet and ISAS will be impacted for the same reason as the larger Tabcorp and Tattersall's.
The impact of the flu epidemic is likely to take the gloss off the maiden profit of the merged company, while Tabcorp's hopes for a revival to start in the closing months of the 2008 financial year, could be postponed into 2009.
The ban on racing leaves only greyhounds, poker machines and casinos as outlets for gamblers, but not all punters can go to a casino, not all punters like greyhounds (it's why they rate number three in wagering behind thoroughbreds and pacing).
Only wagering on horses and pacers across NSW, Queensland and other states through TABs, pubs and clubs and other licensed outlets, plus the races, seems to make gamblers happy.
Poker machines in pubs and clubs rate a poor second and many punters don't like them because they don't offer any chance of showing skill or ability in picking and backing winners.
Already there's been betting revenue losses estimated at $50 to $70 million, with most of that felt by the TABs in NSW and Victoria which are controlled by Tabcorp.
There are estimates the sports betting and online gaming web businesses could have lost more than $20 million in revenues over the weekend.
Racing NSW said the NSW TAB had lost $9 million due to Randwick being closed Saturday; bookmakers lost a similar amount of turnover.
The total NSW TAB loss yesterday, including those incurred from regional racecourses was estimated about $14 million.
The company saidyesterday that if Australian thoroughbred and harness racing did not resume until next weekend, it expected to lose $150million in turnover. The 72-hour suspension of racing had already had an effect, with NSW and Victorian TAB turnover slumping on Saturday to $5.9 million; well down on the $52.8million on the same day last year.
Tabcorp said increased betting turnover on races in New Zealand and England during the shutdown was partially compensating for the losses.
If the Spring Carnivals were banned Tabcorp could lose up to $1.5 billion in revenue, with around $160 million of that on the Melbourne Cup.
Unitab saysit turned over about $200million from the Victorian spring racing carnival through its betting agencies in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
He did not mention the about to start Sydney Spring Carnival.
At least 16 horses at two Sydney locations have tested positive to the virus and six more are showing symptoms. Eleven are in lockdown at Centennial Park and another five are at a quarantine facility at Eastern Creek. Cases have now been reported in Queensland.
The rich Melbourne Cup Carnival could be threatened, not to mention Sydney's Spring Carnival which is about to start.
It all depends on the length of the ban.
But the impact on Tabcorp and Tattersall's has been immediate because there is no way they can recoup the lost revenue from the bank, and the lost profits.
Other companies, such as Spotless (which is involved in food service and catering), David Jones (retailing), Fosters, Lion Nathan plus a host of others who service the rich racing carnivals, could face varying impact.
The carnivals are times of big sales for the likes of Fosters and Lion Nathan. David Jones usually spends heavily to promote itself: that could be a cost saving but sales momentum at the top end of the market could be lost (and at rival, Myer).
Small clothing, millinery and other suppliers will be affected as well if the bans force the spring racing carnivals to be postponed or abridged.
State Governments could feel the pinch with tax revenues from their take from wagering down, race clubs, jockeys, trainers and owners will feel the pain as well.
There are several trusts and companies specialising in hotel ownership or management: they will be impacted by a drop in revenue from Pub Tabs and from lower beer and food sales because of the lower number (or absence of punters over the weekend, and for as long as the bans remain in force).
The ING Real Estate Entertainment Trust is one of the biggest with management or ownership deals over 28 hotels in NSW and Queensland worth $340 million.
Retail giant Woolworths has the largest exposure to pubs (it's the biggest owner in Australia) and a long ban will hurt its hotels operation. It reports 2007 earnings today.
Coles Group has a smaller interest in pubs in Queensland after it bought the Hedley group.
PBL half owns Betfair: it will face reduced gambling levels during the ban, like all other outlets.
But it's Tabcorp which w
