More Confirmation Of Strong Economy

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

On the eve of the Reserve Bank's November meeting in Sydney today, more data suggesting the economy is burbling along at close to full speed, with all the attendant perils.

Jobs figures look strong, inflation is persistent, the dollar is solid and overall there doesn't seem to be any way the bank can avoid an election campaign rate rise.

The ANZ Bank said yesterday that the number of jobs advertised in Australia last month hit a record monthly high.

The ANZ says its job ads series showed the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.7% to an average of 254,554 a week.

It is the highest number of job ads recorded in any month since the survey began and came after several months of static performance.

To show it another way, October's jobs total was a huge 30.5% higher from October 2006, surely the best sign of the enormous jobs boom we are having, and the difficulties employers are having filling positions.

The ANZ said that the number of jobs advertised on the internet rose 2.8%, to a weekly average of 234,089 and the number of newspaper job ads rose 1.7% to an average of 20,465 a week.

Newspaper advertisements are now 2.2% above October 2006.

In addition to this the TD Securities Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge showed that price pressures remain in the economy and there doesn't look like being a significant easing soon.

This news helped the Australian dollar remain over 92USc yesterday, despite those subprime mortgage fears on news of more losses at huge US bank, Citigroup.

The Aussie was also firming ahead of the RBA meeting and the expectation of a rate rise, which would widen the interest rate differential spread between Australia, the US and Japan.

The strong US jobs figures and news on the strength of demand in the economy probably means there will be no more interest rate cuts in the US this year.

TD Securities said the inflation gauge rose by 0.3% in October, following a 0.2% rise in September and a 0.5% rise in August when the RBA last lifted rates.

The October rise took the rise over the past 12 months to 3.3%, well above the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target band of 2%-3%. A re-weighted version of this figure produced underlying inflation of 3.2% (similar to the RBA's own re-working of the Consumer Price Index).

TD Securities said that the major contributors to the October figure were rises in the prices of automotive fuel, holiday travel and accommodation, utilities, and fruit and vegetables, while the stronger dollar helped falls in the prices of audio, visual and computing equipment, communications, and some household supplies.

Meanwhile the ANZ's head of Australian economics, Tony Pearson, said the new jobs record high in October was a sign that demand for labour remained very strong.

"However, the October rise followed four months of flat or declining advertisements, and in aggregate this has led to a steady slowing in the monthly trend increase in advertisements," he said.

"This suggests the demand for workers is now not increasing as quickly as it was earlier in the year."

Mr Pearson also noted that the monthly trend rate of employment growth had been slowing since February, and the forward nature of the relationship between the job advertisements series and employment suggested that trend in employment growth would continue to slow over coming months.

"We do not expect this will lead to any substantive easing in the tightness of labour market conditions," he said.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases labour force data on Thursday and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at a 33-year low of 4.2%.

Another minor survey yesterday from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) shows its Business Expectations Survey for November with business confidence levels and investment in plant and equipment and in building are all at 13-year highs.

But the Australian Industry Group-Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index showed the services sector's expansion slowed last month.

The PSI fell by 3.2 points to 53.2 in the month, to stay above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction.

Activity expanded in eight of the nine sectors in October, up from seven in the previous month; NSW, Victoria and Tasmania experienced growth in services, while nationally supplier deliveries fell for the first time in six months.

"Against this jobs background, consumers have weathered the headwinds of rising interest rates and petrol prices and have continued to spend."

AIG chief executive, Heather Ridout, said the Australian PSI showed that "Australia's services sector continues to perform solidly.

"With new orders lifting significantly over recent months prospects for the near-term also look positive.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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