The BHP Billiton board is due to meet this week in what could be the most important discussion so far in the meandering attempt to take over Rio Tinto in a $120 billion-plus deal.
At the same time another bid for smaller rival Xstrata by CVRD of Brazil is also reported in London to be gathering pace.
More reports in London at the weekend claimed the BHP takeover will "go to the wire", as the London observer put it on Sunday.
A week before it was the Sunday Times with reports of how BHP had the finance in place.
The speculation about both bids is likely to go some way in offsetting any volatility in the markets from overseas market moves.
What we do know is that BHP has to put up or shut up by February 6, the day it releases its interim earnings for 2007-08. That's tomorrow week.
BHP Billiton tries to meet a deadline to formally declare its offer for Rio Tinto, a report in the Observer newspaper in London said.
If BHP doesn't bid, it can't make an offer in London for the Rio shares listed there (the majority of Rio shares are listed in London), so despite the different takeover rules in Australia, the UK rules would preclude a full and complete offer if it can't be formally launched (with documentation) by February 6.
As best we know the BHP offer is still an all share three for one bid, although there have been leaks it could be increased to 3.5 shares for every Rio, plus some cash.
Rio has told BHP to go away because the offer undervalues the company and has proceeded to mount a very active defense, announcing new deals, better than expected production figures for the last quarter and last half of 2007, and its executives have met customers and customer governments around the world, especially in China.
On Friday, it announced a joint venture with the world's largest copper producer, Codelco, to explore for the metal in Chile.
Chile is BHP's backyard where its huge Escondida deposit and mine is located: that, along with the iron ore mines of the Pilbara, are the two powerhouses of the company (to be joined by Olympic Dam In South Australia in coming years).
Rio shares rose more than 9% on Friday, as investors continued to listen to rumours of BHP Billiton making an improved offer for the company.
Rio Tinto shares ended up $10.03 at $118.50 on Friday and BHP Billiton up $1.98 to $36.80. The BHP offer is still underwater at three for one.
Meanwhile the other big battle in world mining: CVRD's (Vale) advance on UK-South African-Swiss mining group, Xstrata, continues.
Again London reports say CVRD has lined up a $US50 billion financing package from a powerful group of global banks for bid for Xstrata that would also see around $US40 billion in non-voting shares issued..
HSBC is leading a consortium thought to include Santander, BNP Paribas, Lehman Brothers, Credit Suisse and Citigroup. Some of those are also in the group claimed to be arranging the $US70 billion for a BHP bid on Rio Tinto.
The Brazilian government controls nearly 53% of Vale's stock and there have been reports of concerns that a bid might water down this level of control, but seeing the shares to be issued will be non-voting (like News Corp has) the issue is moot.
Vale – formerly CVRD (Companhia Vale do Rio Doce) – is the world's largest mining group after BHP Billiton.
With BHP planning a bid for rival Rio Tinto, and Vale keen to match it with the move on Xstrata, the two mining giants will dominate iron ore, copper, coking and steaming coal and aluminium, as well as have major interests in lead, zinc and especially nickel.
This concentration of market power has caused consternation in China, which relies on imported materials to fuel its economic growth.
Rio CEO, Tom Albanese was in Beijing at weekend to discuss the situation with Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister.
Albanese also met the heads of Baosteel, China's biggest steel-maker, and major Chinese state banks.
There have been denied reports that Chinese groups, such as Baosteel or banks might take a blocking stake in Rio Tinto.
