Oil prices edged a touch higher on Friday in New York, but news of an official investigation into the way some investors are using the markets (especially so-called Index-Long funds) by American regulators has sent tremors through the huge $US50 trillion a year market.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been conducting an investigation of oil trading for much of the past six months.
And the Commission is also expected to reveal new rules this week to tighten up on trading in futures on US exchanges that will be designed to make it tougher for speculators.
Both the oil probe and the new rules are responses to pressure from US politicians nervous about the impact of higher prices for oil and foodstuffs in an election year. (They are not worried about higher prices for gold, steel, coal, platinum or copper: just those commodities used extensively by voters).
Both responses are likely to be more along the lines of new ‘rules’ rather than sweeping changes to who can trade.
New financial investors in specialist funds are widely blamed in the US for pushing the likes of oil, wheat, soybeans and rice higher: but these funds only total some $US250 billion at most and total trading value in commodity exchanges in the US and London would be well over $US100 trillion (the oil market is the largest).
These new funds are financial investors in that they do not take delivery of the commodities: they sell their expiring contracts to oil refiners, wheat or corn processors and the like every day.
Financial investors or speculator shave a bigger impact in the huge US bond markets than they do in commodities and yet there is no move against them in these areas.
Friday saw oil in New York edge higher to close up 73c at $US127.35 a barrel for July crude on Nymex while in London, Brent North Sea July crude added 89c to settle at $US127.78.
Prices fell heavily earlier last week in the wake of the surge past $US135 the week before.
Oil is now a sort of catalyst for re-awakening fears of inflation in Australia, Asia, Europe, the US and everywhere.
And for some more thoughtful commentators, it’s also now being factored in as a growing negative for economic growth in every region of the world: a sort of ‘tax on growth’ that will not only force inflation and interest rates higher, but force consumers to cut their consumption in retailing, housing, autos, petrol itself, travel and a host of activities.
The longer crude remains between $US100 a barrel to $US130 a barrel, the greater the possibility of corporate earnings being hurt by margin compression (airlines, transport and even retailing).
Concerns about the global credit crunch and the US housing slump seem to have been supplanted by worries about global inflation.
This is now plain to see in bond yields which rose further over the last week with the US 10 year bond yield back above 4% for the first time since January and the Australian ten year bond yield rising to 6.6%, its highest level in eight years.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver warns:” It’s hard to see this going too much further though: leading indicators point to a further weakening in global and Australian growth, this is likely to take pressure off inflation and commodity prices seem to be coming of the boil.
"Apart from signs that the oil price may be topping out for now, it’s worth noting that average global agricultural prices have fallen about 22% from their high earlier this year. From their recent high wheat prices are off 45% and rice prices are down 22% both on better news regarding this year’s crops.
"While further increases in the oil price in the short term are possible there is increasing evidence that it has gone too far for now.
"Vehicle miles travelled in the US are running 4.6% below year ago levels, UK petrol consumption is down 7% on a year ago, Australian unleaded petrol sales fell 4.4% in the March quarter and several Asian countries are now reviewing the fuel price caps and subsidies which have been underpinning oil demand to some degree.
"At some point over the next six months the oil price is likely to fall back sharply, maybe to around $US100 a barrel in response to weaker oil demand, which has been partly caused by the rise in the oil price itself. That said the reality of rapid industrialisation in countries such as China driving strong long term growth in oil demand and constrained supply indicate that the long term trend in the oil price will remain up.
"The political debate in Australia about petrol prices has become a bit of a comedy.
"Neither a “fuel watch” scheme nor knocking 5 cents a litre off petrol excise will make much difference to motorists who are used to seeing petrol prices move 20 cents a litre in the space of a few days. Australian fuel taxes are already very low compared to other developed countries.
"We should really be debating ways to cut oil consumption over time – better public transport, flex fuel vehicles, manufacturing hybrid cars locally, etc," Dr Oliver said in his weekly market commentary on Friday..
Gold on Friday rose for the last week while silver gained more than 2%.
But that was a of small relief to precious metals bulls who saw both metals pounded in the wake of a lift in the value of the US dollar. Not even rising concerns about inflation could stop the rot.
Gold lost 3.7% in value last week, the biggest drop since the sharp sell-off in mid March. It finished up $US9.80 an ounce at $US891.50 for August metal. That compared to the all time record of well over $US1,030 set in mid March.
Last week’s sell-off halved May’s gain to 3.1% and cut the
