Some very mixed news on inflation in Asia.
China yesterday revealed a third month of slowing inflation in July, as the price controls imposed by the central government and intense competition seemingly trimmed the sharp rise in wholesale price inflation experienced by producers, manufacturers and wholesalers in the same month.
Japan revealed a sharp rise in its producer price pressures, Singapore consumer prices are rising and India’s are running at 13 year highs. Singapore growth is slowing and Malaysia seems to be felling the pinch.
But it was China’s lower than expected rise in consumer prices of 6.3% last month that took markets by surprise.
A fall in consumer price inflation is very rare at the moment, given the intense price pressures across the world from higher oil prices and the lingering impact of high food costs.
There had been concerns that it would rise from June’s 7.1% (which itself was surprisingly lower than market forecasts).
Analysts said that subsiding food costs were as much to blame for the fall last month, a big difference to the closing months of last year when soaring pork costs forced inflation higher at the retail level.
Economists now say the Government can bring in more measures to maintain growth at current levels (10% annual). But others warn there’s still pent up price pressures behind the controls on food, energy and other costs.
Price rises for electricity, diesel and petrol (plus jet fuel) last month didn’t have the impact some commentators thought they would have on costs.
But the pressures remain: Chinese power companies have asked the Government for subsidies to help keep them in operating by making up some of the difference between the controlled price of electricity and the high cost of coal.
Inflation was the slowest in 10 months and with the slump in oil, copper, nickel and other metal prices, plus lower food prices, there’s every chance the low July reading will further cut cost pressures this month.
In fact with pork prices expected to fall and falls in the cost of energy and metals, some Chinese Government officials are pushing the line of consumer price inflation falling under 5% in the next few months.
The Government statistics office said food prices rose 14.4% last month from a year earlier, slower than the 17.3% annual growth rate in the year to June.
Meat prices were up 16% from a year after a 27.3% rise in the year to June, while vegetable prices were all but steady on June and only 8.4% up on June 2007.
Non-food prices increased 2.1% in July after climbing 1.9% and China’s inflation is falling just as other Asian countries face new highs.
Commentators expect the government to make some major announcements (or ‘indicate’ them through speeches and official comments) after the Olympics finish later this month.
Already bank loan controls have been eased for small and medium businesses and farmers, export rebates have been raised on textiles and clothing, and more moves are expected.
The surprisingly stronger trade performance last month seems to have been driven by a number of sectors pushing more products into the export chain ahead of expected cuts in rebates or moves to restrict volumes. Steel exports in the month were higher than forecast, for example.
In Tokyo, Japan’s wholesale inflation rate accelerated to a 27-year high last month, driven by rising goods prices, higher energy prices and a rise in some commodity costs, such as iron ore and coal.
The Bank of Japan said that producer prices jumped by an annual 7.1% in July: China saw a 10% annual rise last month, the US 9% annual in June and the US 10% in the same month.
The increase was much steeper than forecast and came after June’s rise was revised to an annual 5.7% gain.
Economists say the rise was due to companies boosting the cost of products they sell to others in the manufacturing or retailing process, as well as the surge in oil prices in the early part of the month and those higher iron ore, coking and thermal coal costs contained in April 1 supply contracts.
There’s talk of further price rises for Toyota cars in Japan soon, the central government may lift wheat prices for a second time this year (20% is suggested after 30% April 1) and there are more reports of other suppliers lifting the costs of products.
Paper prices could rise a second time this year and the higher wheat costs would boost the price of noodles, a retail staple.
Economists said the July increase was the steepest since January 1981. The rise in July alone on June was a very sharp 2%, according to the central bank’s figures.
Japanese consumer price inflation is now running at 1.9% excluding fresh food, fish and vegetables. That’s a 10 year high.
And figures out this week show that economic growth slowed in the second quarter in Singapore to an annual 2.1% from a year ago.
And the government reckons the US slowdown (which seems to hurt Singapore more than many other Asian countries) looks like cutting non oil exports over the rest of the year, instead of a forecast rise.
And Malaysia reported that industrial production grew at its slowest pace in 10 months in June.
Singapore growth contracted 6% in the second quarter from the March three months, a very sharp slowdown.
