As we have seen, the issues this week for investors will be the Reserve Bank, interest rates, employment in Australia, shares, banks generally, credit freeze, earnings in the US, interest rates in Britain and Japan and confidence generally.
Later today we will get a rate cut: 0.25% certainly, perhaps half a per cent, or a quarter now and a quarter next month.
The Bank of England meets Thursday night our time and if there’s any chance of not giving a rate cut to try and soften the landing of the collapsing UK economy, then there are still some on the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee who will find a way to voice concerns about inflation.
Inflation is dead and the sooner central banks understand fully that price pressures are no longer the big worry, the quicker rates will fall. But UK rates will be cut, possibly by 0.50% because Briutain is suffering a severe slump.
He says this will probably see the commercial banks cut their mortgage rates by around 0.25%.
Dr Oliver says the other major indicator to watch this week is the employment and jobless numbers for last month.
Friday saw a huge 159,000 rise in the US figure and economists are now wondering if the slowing pace of activity in our domestic economy will finally start showing up in the labour force stats.
We will also get housing finance figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
In America the minutes of the Fed meeting in late September will be released, but they will be dated, given given the turmoil in financial markets over the last month.
But a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be watched more closely for indications as to whether the Fed will soon lower interest rates as more and more US economists suggest.
Dr Oliver reckons a Fed rate cut could come very soon.
US figures for pending home sales is likely to be bad, the trade balance will reflect the slumping economy and any sign of a downturn in the rate of growth of exports will be taken as bad news.
Import prices however should be a better story with the surge in the value of the greenback since Mid-July finally having a noticeable impact on the cost of imports, as well as the very sharp fall in commodity prices.
Oil prices have led the way and fell by around 10% last week alone.
TUESDAY:
Reserve Bank board meeting with interest rate decision at 2.30 pm; Seeking employment index for September; Dun and Bradstreet business outlook for December quarter; the Australian CEO of HOBOS Australia, David Willis speaks at a business lunch in Melbourne; SAI Global/ACCCI quarterly survey of investors confidence; the ANZ Job Ads Index.
WEDNESDAY:
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures on housing finance for August; Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment for October; Telstra CEO, Sol Trujillo speaks at a business lunch in Melbourne.
THURSDAY:
ABS labour force figures for September; Melbourne Institute survey of consumer inflation expectations; Bank of Queensland annual profit figures; Financial Services Conference in Melbourne.
FRIDAY:
OZ Minerals CEO, Andre Michelmore speaks at a Melbourne business lunch.
If the global slump accelerates and the credit freeze continues, deflation could become an issue next year in some economies, just as it remains in parts of the Japanese economy even now.
But it’s thought highly likely the Bank of England will push rates down by 0.25% at least, and perhaps half a per cent because of the worsening state of the UK economy.
The Bank of England has been battling hard to pump liquidity into the UK economy and banking system in the past months and keep it well maintained with cash.
The credit freeze is hurting as mortgages, retail sales, car loans and other forms of credit slump, both for demand reasons and the lack of availability.
Even the European Central Bank and its hang of hard line anti-inflation fighters have now realised that and eurozone rates will come back to 4% next month.
That will get rid of the totally unwarranted 0.25% rise in July that helped drive commodity prices up even higher in a final two week frenzy before the crash started around the 11th of that month.
The Bank of Japan meets mid week but won’t move rates from their present half a per cent.
The Japanese economy is definitely getting worse, with exports and output falling, demand slowing, unemployment rising and wages stagnant.
Today’s RBA will make a cut against circumstances that have changed radically since the September discussions.
The global credit crunch is becoming more ferocious than ever in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers failure and the global growth outlook deteriorating even further.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says "In view of the growing threat to the Australian economy from the global economic slump, the ongoing contraction in global credit availability and the likelihood
That the commercial banks won’t pass on the full amount of any rate cut given the latest blow-out in their funding costs the RBA will cut the cash rate by 0.5% to 6.5%".
