Yes, we’ve got a lot here this week to watch out for:
Tomorrow is a big day with the release of the Reserve Bank minutes from the board meeting earlier in the month that saw that surprise 1% rate cut and a speech from RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens.
Results from the NAB (brought forward to tomorrow) and the ANZ on Thursday, will tell us how the banking system is travelling right now, especially over the past month to five weeks as the credit crunch turned into a global credit freeze that is only know starting to show signs of thawing.
Both the NAB (down 11% for the year to a cash earnings figure of $3.9 billion) and the ANZ (which should report around $2 billion after write-downs and loses of a similar amount already announced) will go a long way to influencing market sentiment about the sector’s health and the worth of the guarantees put in place by the Federal Government.
Both banks won’t be lifting final dividends, but they won’t be cutting them. The NAB reaffirmed its final in its announcement last week of the new guidance figure. The ANZ has already supported its final payment in an earlier statement.
The Consumer Price Index inflation figures for the September quarter on Wednesday will add to the flow of important information on the economy after last week’s banking support package and the $10.4 billion stimulatory package designed to boost Christmas.
US data for existing home sales will be released and September quarter profit results will be watched closely to see how the credit crunch and economic downturn is starting to affect non-financial and non-housing related stocks.
The market consensus is for profits to have fallen by 10% over the year to the September quarter after falling 22% in the previous quarter. So far there are signs of damage being done, with growing expectations that the fourth quarter will see even nastier outcomes.
The latest Merrill Lynch survey of global money managers reveals high levels of suspicion about US earnings forecasts.
The report, released last week, says that "third-quarter earnings season will be a vital input to investors’ portfolio decision making and to gauging how the financial crisis has impacted the real economy. Respondents appear to be placing little or no credibility in consensus earnings estimates for the year ahead.
"A net 92 percent of respondents regard estimates as "too high," and more than half say estimates are "far too high."
Among the batch of heavy hitters to release earnings next week are Caterpillar, 3M Co, Boeing Co and McDonald’s: all Dow companies. Caterpillar should get another boost from exports, but even there signs are of am emerging slowdown. Boeing will be hit by the impact of a strike and by falling demand for planes.
After IBM and Google’s solid figures, US analysts are looking for similar returns from Apple Inc , perhaps Yahoo Inc; certainly Amazon and Microsoft.
Chinese September quarter GDP data is likely to show a further slowdown in growth to around 9%, from 10.1% in the June quarter.
However, this combined with another fall in China’s inflation rate is likely result in further measures to boost the Chinese economy.
In the UK data for September quarter GDP is likely to show a fall as output, retail sales, house prices and demand falls and inflation and unemployment rises..
Both the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are likely to cut interest rates again (by 100 basis points in the case of the latter).
In the US more gloomy news from the economy, even though it’s a light week for figures.
September’s index of leading U.S. economic indicators, Wednesday’s weekly mortgage market index, Thursday’s weekly U.S. claims for jobless benefits and Friday’s report on September US existing home sales will be show varying signs of the emerging slump, especially in employment..
Tonight, our time, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to appear before a House Budget Committee hearing about the economic outlook and the financial markets.
MONDAY:
The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the September quarter’s Producer Price Indexes.
TUESDAY:
National Australia Bank releases 2008 final results. RBA minutes from the October 7 meeting. RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens speaks at a Sydney business lunch. Oz Minerals third quarter production report. AGMs for Austal Ltd, Kairiki Energy.
WEDNESDAY:
ABS releases the September quarter Consumer Price Index figures. BHP Billiton first quarter production and exploration report. AGMs for Macquarie Infrastructure, Riversdale Mining, Globe International, Cobar Consolidated and Reserve Corp Ltd.
THURSDAY:
ANZ 2008 final results. BHP Billion AGM in London, other AGMs include: Cardno Ltd. Santos’ third quarter production and exploration report, Macarthur Coal CEO, Nicole Hollows speaks in Brisbane. Housing Industry Association/Commonwealth bank Housing Affordability survey for the September quarter.
FRIDAY:
AGMs include Amalgamated Holdings, Aevum, Wattyl, PaperlinX, Boom Logistics, Clough
