So what will the world car industry look like by Christmas?
Who knows, things are changing quickly as sales slump in the west and even Chinese buyers take a rest (meaning lower demand for steel and Australian iron ore and coal).
It’s a good question, but a better one might be, will the US car industry look the same by the end of the March quarter next year?
Christmas might be a bit too close to get something done and dusted with the change of administration in Washington and a new bunch of politicians in the Congress, all eager to do something.
Spend more will be the option; on a stimulator package, on housing, and on helping the car industry, specifically Ford, and then GM and Chrysler merge and then effectively kill off Chrysler as an entity to cut enough capacity for GM and Ford to survive, plus the US operations of foreign groups like Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen.
From what is being written in US media, that seems to be the plot. Will the chances of seeing General Chrysler motoring along the US highways and freeways by the time Santa arrives be a bit too optimistic, unless there is an agreement in principle, to be settled once there’s a new bloke in the White House?
But it will still be an unpleasant sight:
General Chrysler chewing up cash and if that doesn’t work, perhaps a transnational wedding of GM and Chrysler to Renault/Nissan in various combinations?
A joining of two US car makers would help maintain the share the two domestic producers have at around 40% to 44%, instead of it being shared by three.
General Chrysler looks more like an option, but even then there’s rising doubts in the US that it will happen, simply because the hurdles are so high in the current volatile environment.
And what about Ford, which is looking more and more like the orphan at the bottom of Detroit?
Ford’s future was thrown into more doubt Tuesday when the opportunistic investor, Kirk Kerkorian started unloading his 6% stake in the ailing car group at a big loss.
US brokers reckon Kerkorian sees more of an upside in gaming in Las Vegas, which is doing it tough at the moment, but not as tough as Ford and the US car industry.
Kerkorian and his advisers have spent around two months flirting with Ford, watched the price of the company’s shares fall to around $US1.99 (Kerkorian paid over $US5 each) and decided at the first opportunity of market stability (Monday) to bail out. So he tossed out some of his stake and indicated the rest might follow.
In a statement on Tuesday, Kerkorian’s investment company, Tracinda Corporation said it sold on Monday 7.3 million Ford shares at an average price of $US2.43 each and that it intended to further reduce its holdings in the stock, including the possible sale of all its remaining shares. Tracinda said it still held 133.5 million Ford shares, accounting for 6.06% of the troubled carmaker’s outstanding shares.
Ford closed at $US2.16 this morning in New York, down 17 USc on the day. His exit tells you a lot about what he thinks of the company and industry’s future. At that level Kerkorian will lose more than $US500 million on his Ford adventure.
Still saving around $US500 million from his original $US1 billion entry cost might represent a partial win if Ford sinks much further into the mire.
The money would have been borrowed, so the banks who advanced him the money will be happy, and pleasing your banks these days is more important than making profits.
Kerkorian is a three times loser in cars: he built up a 10% stake in GM in 2006 and in the 1990s tried to take over Chrysler (but walked away with money at the end).
But the talks between GM and Chrysler are grabbing the attention and there’s no certainty the deal will happen.
Chrysler has $US11 billion or so in cash, but much of that is borrowed, and the question is whether the lenders to Chrysler will be comfortable with an ailing GM taking over the debt and getting its hands on the money. GM has around $US21 billion in cash, but industry analysts say it can’t let its cash reserves fall below $US12 to $US15 billion (considered to be its minimum working capital levels) because if it happened, its existing financiers would feel very nervous.
Chrysler’s owner, Cerberus, the private equity group, also owns 51% of GMAC (GM the other 49%), and it clearly wants out of cars after losing billions of its investors’ money in the two deals.
If GM buys Chrysler, it has to buy out that company’s car dealers contracts: suggested cost is $US1 billion. There are few, if any car models and equipment at Chrysler that GM wants, only the cash pile, which is shrinking by the day.
The banks, the US government (to do a deal on the pensions and health bills of both car giants) and Cerberus would have to basically fund the deal.
All that to do a deal whose logic demands the extinguishing of the Chrysler name, to allow GM and the rest of the US industry a chance to survive.
Ford’s future rests with the General Chrysler. Kirk Kerkorian couldn’t wait around for that to happen. If Chrysler fails, could GM go to Ford, broken cruise control in hand, to ask once again for a deal?
It was knocked back in May, but that was before the industry fell off the cliff in September’s credit freeze. What would a Ford-GM merged company be called?
General Ford, Ford Corp, or General Motors?
And don’t think this is just an American experience.
The pain is being shared, although not to the same degree. Just ask the mighty Toyota of Japan (and BMW and Mercedes in Germany).
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