In Australia, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates by another 0.5% to 5.5% following its meeting tomorrow, Melbourne Cup day.
The bank’s decision will be made public at 2.30 pm, a half an hour before the cup is run.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says that " While the fact that inflation is still high and the RBA sees a slowdown and not a recession ahead will likely see a more modest cut than October’s 100 basis point move, rates are nevertheless likely to fall again on the back of the further deterioration in the global growth outlook and the ongoing volatility in financial markets."
The rate cut will be one of a number important moves and figures released for the economy this week.
October’s employment data will be released on Thursday, retail sales trends and building approvals for September on will also be released today and Wednesday, respectively.
International trade figures for September are due for release Wednesday as well.
House price indexes for the September quarter are also due for release today: some signs of an easing in prices nationally is expected, especially from Perth and Melbourne..
The overall tone for these releases will be to show the economy is running down, slowly as activity subsides.
Dr Oliver says anecdotal evidence points to a fall in retail sales in September after two strong months, house prices are likely to have drifted lower in the September quarter and the labour market is data is likely to show a rise in unemployment consistent with recent anecdotes of increasing layoffs.
Major earnings updates will come from News Corp’s first quarter figures on Thursday morning and CSR’s interim on Wednesday.
The big event in the US in the week will be the Presidential election.
Getting that out of the way and a change of Government in the US will be welcomed by financial markets.
Many investors will be a bit fearful of the new administration, but thankful that the wasted years of the Bush Administration are over, although he will be around for another two months and will chair the important G-20 economic meeting in Washington in two week’s time.
Dr Oliver says that it’s also worth noting that US shares normally do better when a Democrat is in the White House as opposed to a Republican.
"Since 1945 the average return for US shares under Republican Presidents has been 10.2% p.a. versus 15.1% pa under Democrats."
The US will see another lot of important figures: the key ISM survey of manufacturing activity will be released along with employment data for October. Both are expected to remain weak with the US now being in recession.
October’s US employment report will grab all the attention after the tens of thousands of job cuts announced last month as the credit crunch became a freeze and battered employers and employees alike.
Reuters reckons nonfarm US employers shed 200,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate forecast to rise 6.3% that’s after 159,000 in September and an employment rate of 6.1%, that was kept down only by hundreds of thousands of people leaving the workforce, or accepting shorter working weeks and lower salaries.
Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to cut rates by a further 0.5% after meetings later in the week.
MONDAY:
Reserve Bank releases its Commodity price Index for October; the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its house price indexes for the September quarter, and the retail sales trends figures for September. ANZ Jobs Ads series update for October. AGMs include Ridley Corp and Flight Centre.
TUESDAY:
Reserve Bank board meets, decision at 2.30 pm. A certain Melbourne horse race at 3 pm US president and Congressional polls start tonight our time. Business expectations survey for the September quarter from the CBA and Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. AGMs, Platinum Asset Management.
WEDNESDAY:
Results of the US presidential and Congressional polls. ABS releases international trade figures for September and building approvals, also for September. AGMs include West Australian Newspapers, Mincor, Kresta, and Select Harvests. CSR Ltd interim,
THURSDAY:
News Corp first quarter results. Labour force figures for October. Fortescue CEO, Andrew Forrest speaks at a Perth business lunch. AGMs include Tassal, IBA Health, PrimeAg Australia, Energy Developments, Seek, Trans Pacific Industries, Scott Corp, Leighton Holdings. European Central Bank, Bank Of England meet.
FRIDAY:
AGMs include PMP, IMF Australia, Pan Pacific Petroleum, Ansell, Babcock And Brown Power, Kagara, Macmahon Holdings. US employment and unemployment data released.
