The US and European economies sent a far more realistic message last week about the outlook for the global economy than the weekend’s Group of 20 meeting of leaders from the globe’s 20 largest economies did in Washington.
Friday brought the news that the eurozone economies were in the first recession since the euro appeared on the global scene back in 1999, and US consumers, the heart and soul of the American economy, went on strike in October to the extent where headline retail sales fell by the most ever, (Down 2.8%) as did the core measure when the impact of car and petrol sales were taken out.
Thousands more jobs went on Friday (upwards of 50,000 or more in America and in different parts of the world) and this week will see more figures that will confirm an even greater fall in new home starts and in industrial production.
The dollar edged higher, the markets turned lower, losing more than 6% in value for the second week running.
The news from the real economy made the statement issued at the end of the G-20 meeting look like it really was: a political confection devised by France and agreed to by a nervous President Bush before the US elections on November.
Though the countries’ stimulus packages were cast as ambitious steps, they mainly reflected measures that the countries were already undertaking to respond to the crisis. (Such as Australia’s $10.4 billion package).
From January 20, the rest of the G-20 has to work with a new President in the US. The group planned its next meeting for April 30, 101 days after President-elect Obama is sworn into office.
Mr. Obama sent representatives to the meeting.
He may find common ground with the leaders in his support of a further stimulus program in the United States, something the Bush administration opposes after blowing its ammunition on a useless $US120 billion tax rebate earlier in the year that did nothing except delay the inevitable and give the Republicans a chance ahead of the November 4 poll.
According to one news report: "Leaders from the biggest developed and emerging nations agreed more must be done to shore up a global economy sliding into recession, and laid out regulatory proposals to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis.
"In a statement after a five-hour summit in Washington, the Group of 20 urged a “broader policy response” to spur growth, including potential interest-rate cuts and fiscal stimulus.
The group set a March 31 deadline for recommendations on tightening accounting standards, strengthening derivatives markets and increasing oversight of hedge funds and debt-rating firms."
Reform of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were promised, but that won’t have any impact on the current slowdown which is looking more miserable by the day.
British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown was quoted as saying that a number of countries would unveil initiatives in the coming weeks.
Well, that might be true in the UK, but Australia has already done its bit, as has China, Japan and South Korea. France, Spain and Germany have done nothing like those programs started by China, Australia and Japan.
The US won’t really do anything until the new administration starts after January 20: that’s not unless President Bush and President-elect Obama can reach an unprecedented agreement before then.
In the US the trials and tribulations of the country’s imploding car industry is of greater importance than anything at the moment.
If the current administration and Congress can’t do anything to resolve the impasse, the future of hundreds of thousands of jobs is problematic.
That will occupy more attention than any reflation package, which won’t emerge in the US until late January.
Before then there’s a rowing belief that growth this quarter will contract at an annual rate of 3%-plus, that retailing will be the next sector to be devastated by the credit crunch and freeze and then it will be the turn of manufacturing.
This was recognised by the G-20. It said that rather than coordinate action, nations should act "as deemed appropriate to domestic conditions.”
The group pledged not to erect new trade barriers, guaranteed more resources for the International Monetary Fund if needed and promised to meet again before May.
The G-20 leaders, representing 90% of the world economy, blamed the crisis on investors who "sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the risks.” At the same time, the group faulted regulators in developed nations for failing to "adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets.”
The statement papered over differences by recognizing that regulation is "first and foremost” a national responsibility, while at the same time demanding more international cooperation to oversee financial firms whose operations and problems cross national borders.
The leaders directed their finance ministers to work on recommendations for enhancing disclosure by investors and institutions, including hedge funds, of their financial conditions.
Credit-rating companies, which blessed many of the products that have since gone into default, should be registered, and oversight of their actions strengthened to ensure they provide unbiased information and avoid conflicts of interest.
The meeting said that accounting standards should be harmonized around the world and regulators should consider whether current rules properly value securities, particularly complex, illiquid products, during times of stress.
The leaders endorsed the use of clearinghouses for financial derivatives to back trades and absorb losses in case of a dealer failure.
