After the dramas of last week with rate cuts, recessions and some of the gloomiest news seen for decades, the coming week will be quieter, thankfully.
Jobless figures here will be watched closely, as will the first payments of the $8 billion-plus fiscal stimulus from the federal government.
In the US, retail sales data for November are likely to show further weakness adding to concerns about the severity of the US recession. US data for pending home sales, import prices, producer prices and trade will also be released.
The Bank of Canada is also likely to further cut interest rates, following the US and other western economies.
Canadian economic growth is still positive; 1.3% in the year to the September quarter. But it is being hurt by the deepening US slump, especially in cars.
The global commodity slump is also hitting Canada, as it is Australia. Our annual growth was 1.9% in the year to September.
That’s why the start of the monthly release of Chinese economic data for November will be closely watched here, in Canada and elsewhere.
Inflation, industrial production, imports and exports and retail sales are some of the figures due for release.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says worries about the outlook for Chinese growth ”are only likely to be accentuated. Fortunately, China is now throwing lots of stimulus at its economy and more is on the way".’
In Australia, a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will be watched closely.
But our employment figures will be the most watched set of numbers. We have still to see a noticeable rise in the number of jobless as the US, UK, Europe and other economies are seeing.
Besides the employment figures, we will get data on consumer and business confidence, a wheat crop update, mineral statistics and housing finance.
So far the official employment data has remained solid, but with the economy having slowed to a crawl it’s only a matter of time before weakness starts to show in both employment and unemployment.
Dr Oliver says the AMP "expects employment to have fallen in November pushing up unemployment to 4.4%".
Dr Oliver says that given the current extreme uncertainty ”a big chunk of this will be saved, but nevertheless it will help ensure that the downswing in the economy will be far less than would otherwise have been the case and helps provide confidence that there will be a recovery later next year".
Besides the retail sales figures in the US we will also get figures for producer prices for November, import and export price indexes.
European industrial production and German investor sentiment will be released this week and will confirm that the eurozone and especially Germany will suffer a long slump next year.
Figures on Friday on German manufacturing orders for October were bad, down 6.1% after an 8.3% fall in September.
October’s orders were 17% down on a year ago, signalling a further slump in industrial production in coming months.
The German Central bank forecast the economy will contract 0.8% next year. The European Central Bank forecast the eurozone would shrink 0.5% next year.
US retail sales in November are forecast to have dropped 1.8% by the various surveys. It would be the fifth straight decline: October’s was 2.8%. They are out Friday.
Uncertainty about the fate of ailing US automakers is another big wild card. Congress is expected to OK some aid, but not as much as the $US34 billion the three giants have asked for.
MONDAY:
ANZ job ads series for November; a mortgage industry report from Deloittes will be released.
TUESDAY:
ABARE releases its December crop report; RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens speaks in Sydney at a business dinner; National Australia Bank survey for November; BT Investment Management AGM; Macquarie Countrywide Trust AGM.
WEDNESDAY:
ABS releases housing finance figures for October; The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey for November; Oroton Group AGM
THURSDAY:
ABS releases labour force figures and the unemployment rate for November; Westpac AGM; Bank of Queensland AGM.
FRIDAY:
Babcock & Brown Communities AGM; Macquarie Office Trust AGM.
