There is some bad news in the latest forecast from the World Bank for Australia and our trade performance in the coming year.
The Bank said yesterday that while the global economy is likely to shrink for the first time since World War II this year, trade will suffer its biggest fall in 80 years, and much of that slump in trade (which accelerated from last November/December), has occurred in regions close to us in Australia..
At the same time the International Monetary Fund has urged countries to spend more on stimulating their economies and not to delay in doing so.
The IMF’s call was echoed in an interview with the Financial Times by President Obama’s senior economic adviser, Lawrence Summers.
He’s urged world leaders to focus on boosting world demand ahead of next month’s G20 summit in London.
Summers heads the White House’s National Economic Council, and he told the FT that there is need for "extraordinary public action" and urged leaders to take coordinated steps to pump more money into the global economy.
"There’s no place that should be reducing its contribution to global demand right now.
"It is really the universal demand agenda. The right macro-economic focus for the G20 is on global demand and the world needs more global demand."
The World Bank report is of special interest to Australia because it forecasts that the deepest falls in trade will occur in East Asia, which is where our main export markets – Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan – are located.
Judging from the Bank’s forecast the collective falls in output, exports and imports in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand will outweigh whatever happens to Chinese output, exports and imports.
That means the long discussed positive impact from China’s rebound will be muted by the slumps elsewhere.
That’s unless (as the IMF points out) Governments don’t start boosting their stimulus packages as soon as they can.
In the first of what will be a flood of reports and opinions ahead of the Group of 20 nations meeting on April 2, the bank and the fund released reports at the weekend calling for more aid and help for both developed and developing countries.
While it didn’t provide was an estimate for global growth this year (it will come closer to April 2), the World Bank’s assessment is more pessimistic than the IMF which forecast that the world economy will grow by just 0.50% in an assessment issued in January.
The IMF will issue new forecasts ahead of the April 2 meeting and from what reports from Washington say, they will predict negative growth this year and next (the Fund forecast a 3% growth rate for the world in 2010).
"The global economy is likely to shrink this year for the first time since World War Two, with growth at least 5 percentage points below potential. World Bank forecasts show that global industrial production by the middle of 2009 could be as much as 15 percent lower than levels in 2008.
"World trade is on track in 2009 to record its largest decline in 80 years, with the sharpest losses in East Asia," the World Bank said.
"The financial crisis will have long-term implications for developing countries. Debt issuance by high-income countries is set to increase dramatically, crowding out many developing country borrowers, both private and public.
"Many institutions that have provided financial intermediation for developing country clients have virtually disappeared.
"Developing countries that can still access financial markets face higher borrowing costs, and lower capital flows, leading to weaker investment and slower growth in the future."
The report said that 94 out of 116 developing countries had experienced a slowdown in economic growth, with poverty increasing in 43.
The result, the bank said, would be growing dependence on foreign aid as developing countries face a financing shortfall of $US270-$US700 billion this year.
Earlier the IMF said governments have to consider taking new stimulus measures through 2010 as the current global economic downturn continues.
And in comments that will resonate in Australia, the Fund says governments shouldn’t delay and should spend sooner, rather than later.
"Given the depth of the crisis, avoiding or postponing action is not a viable option and would come with significant downside risks in terms of further deepening or prolonging the recession."
The IMF said it was "particularly important for fiscal policy to take on an increased share of the burden during the period in which the financial sector is recovering and is not yet able or willing to extend credit to households and businesses to the extent that it normally does".
"Given the anticipated weakness in the global economy over the next two years, consideration should be given to providing fiscal stimulus that goes beyond the measures already announced," the IMF said in a report on Friday.
"Given the likelihood that the economic weakness will continue into 2010, there should be less concern that the expenditures will only be put into place once the economy has begun to recover,.
"Fiscal authorities have acted globally, but so far the stimulus packages outside the United
