Bank profits in Australia, bank fitness, growth, interest rates in the US, growth figures and estimates in Europe and some parts of Asia.
It will be another big week for markets as they approach a big test.
Four more regional US banks failed at the weekend, making a total of 29 now to have collapsed so far this year. 25 failed in 2008 and 2009 is now the worst year since 1993.
Their failures (which will cost the US government’s FDIC, which ensures deposits, around $US700 million) came at the end of a day when the first details of the bank stress tests were released in the US.
It was only an outline of the test, no results or conclusions could be reached, although one broker reckoned just one of the 19 banks would have failed.
But from tonight onwards details will start seeping out into the market ahead of their formal release on May 4.
Analysts say most of the 19 are likely to pass the tests, but some will likely be required to raise additional capital and this will likely see their share prices come under pressure.
That could turn the continuing sharemarket rally and make any move to push stricken US car group, Chrysler towards bankruptcy that much more fraught with problems.
Chrysler’s fate remains uncertain: fiat wants in, the banks want a bigger cut than the company and the government wants to give them. It could go to the wire Thursday night, our time.
Elsewhere the US Federal Reserve meets midweek and is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 0.25%, but the focus will be on quantitative easing where the Fed may announce an increase in its buying of US Treasuries, on fears that the recent rise in bond yields might be bad news for private sector borrowing rates and hence for the economy.
US 10 year bond yields finished at 2.99% on Friday night, around 0.02% under where they were when the Fed revealed its move to quantitative easing six weeks ago, after the March meeting.
US March quarter GDP data is likely to show the US economy still contracting sharply but at a slower pace than in the December quarter thanks to slightly stronger consumer spending and some signs of a steadying in the housing slump.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver said "We expect March quarter GDP to fall at a 5% annualised rate compared to a 6.3% annualised decline in the December quarter".
The first estimate of first-quarter real GDP is set for release on Wednesday, the day the Fed concludes its policy meeting and makes a statement at 4.15 am Thursday, our time.
Thursday sees reports on weekly jobless claims, data on March personal income and spending, the first-quarter employment costs index and April manufacturing activity in the Midwest.
The release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for February on Tuesday, (along with an April index of consumer confidence) will tell us more about the state of the US housing sector and the US consumer’s state of mind.
Figures from other surveys suggest the terrible plunge in housing has eased and the drop in prices has slowed.
The Case Schiller in the most respected of all measures and will tell us if the remorseless fall in house prices is continuing.
April auto sales are due to be released on Friday.
As well figures for US consumer confidence, personal income and consumption and the key ISM manufacturing conditions index will also be released this week The latter is tipped to show an improvement, just as we have seen signs of a small improvement in China and Europe.
The Bank of Japan is expected to leave rates on hold at 0.1%, but could reveal a further step up in quantitative easing, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut its key interest rate again to below 3%.
In Europe, quarterly earnings reports are expected from Scania AB, Siemens AG and Sanofi-Aventis SA.
The latest German consumer confidence survey is out on April 27. The index eased for the first time in seven months in April as workers worried about keeping their jobs amid the worst recession since World War II.
The European Commission is scheduled to release its latest index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area on April 29. European confidence fell to the lowest on record in March.
In Australia, it will be a quite week on the economic data front. Private credit growth data for March is likely to remain soft on Thursday, following the soft figures for February.
However, speculation is rising about the upcoming Federal Budget.
Dr Oliver said "We expect key elements to be another downwards revision to the Government’s GDP growth forecast for 2009-10 from +0.75% to a contraction of 0.5% to factor in recession this calendar year, an upwards revision to unemployment rate forecasts to a peak of around 8 or 9% next year and extra fiscal stimulus in the form of pension increases, more help for small business, additional infrastructure spending and the delivery of the tax cuts that have already been announced.
"While there is likely to be a cutback in middle class welfare, extra spending and the recession will nevertheless see the prediction for the 2009-10 budget deficit blow-out to $50 billion, from a $35.5 billion estimate in February.
(Note that our forecast is for unemployment to peak at 9% next year and this compares to the Government’s current forecast for 7% unemployment next year and the IMF’s prediction of 7.8%.)"
The National Australia Bank reports its first half earnings on Tuesday and the ANZ Bank reports its first half result on Wednesday.
The National Australia Bank’s quarterly business survey will be released on Thursday.
And Woodside Petroleum has its AGM on Friday.
But t
