Now for today’s unemployment figures for May.
Will they spoil the party-like atmosphere that’s developed since the flow of economic data turned a month ago, and culminated in last week’s stronger than expected March quarter growth figures; and then this week’s sharp improvement in business and consumer confidence?
Today’s figures will be based on a return to the old, wider sample base used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics before July of last year.
There are forecasts the unemployment rate will return to the 5.7% rate it hit in March, before easing back to 5.4% in that surprise April reading.
Upwards to 30,000 jobs could be lost, according to some estimates.
Figures like that, and a rise past 5.7%, will certainly get the doomsayers and recession gloomsters out and singing their mournful tunes.
But even at that level, the unemployment picture here will be less than the US where the May rate hit 9.4%, the highest for 26 years.
It will overshadow the strong improvement in confidence reported this week, but go some way to dampening some of the sillier outburst of optimism from some politicians.
Consumer confidence has joined business confidence on a strong upswing and is now at its highest level for 17 months and the housing surge continued in April, but not at the same hectic pace as in March.
In fact it was the strongest rise in consumer confidence in 22 years as the effects of the free spending budget, stimulus packages, the better growth figures for the March quarter and stronger stockmarket overrode concerns about job security.
News of the jump in consumer sentiment followed reports Tuesday from the National Australia Bank of a strong rise in business confidence (but not actual trading conditions), and a slowing in the slump in job ads measured in the ANZ Bank’s job ads survey.
The ANZ’s job ads series for May fell 0.2%, the lowest fall for months and the NAB said business confidence rose 12 index points in May to minus-2 index points, the highest level since February of last year.
The rise in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment was very similar: up 12.7% to 100.1 points, seasonally adjusted, from 88.8 points in May.
The index rose above the 100 point level for the first time in 17 months, the point that divides optimists and pessimists. The Roy Morgan survey of consumer confidence is also showing a positive reading now as well.
The survey showed that of the five components in the confidence index four rose; with expectations for economic conditions over the next five years jumping a sharp 20.2%; and assessments of family finances up 11.1%. But a measure of whether now is the time to buy major household items slipped 1.6%.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said in a statement accompanying the figures that the result was "truly remarkable".
"It is the second largest recorded increase in the index since the survey began in 1974 and the largest increase in the last 22 years," he said in the statement.
"It is very likely that the dominant factor behind this extraordinary rise was the release of the March quarter national accounts last Wednesday.
"That result was widely hailed in the media as indicating that Australia had avoided a recession," Mr Evans said.
However, Mr Evans warned in the statement that the positive reaction in June may turn out to be premature.
"The March quarter national accounts still portrayed a very weak economy with domestic spending falling by one per cent, the sharpest fall since December quarter 2000.
"Overall, GDP growth was positive because imports contracted by an extraordinary seven per cent allowing net exports to contribute 2.2 percentage points to GDP growth and ensuring a positive result.
"We expect this net export effect to partially reverse in the next two quarters, with GDP registering consecutive negative quarters of growth a re-establishing the `recession’ label," he said.
Meanwhile the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that first home buyers continue to dominate housing finance figures.
It said housing finance commitments for owner-occupied housing rose 0.9% in April, seasonally adjusted, to 63,395, and the total housing finance by value rose by 3.6% in April, seasonally adjusted, to $21.5 billion.
The market had expected the number of owner-occupier housing finance commitments to rise by 1.5%.
The ABS said today that "the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments continued to rise, increasing from 27.3% in March 2009 to 28.0% in April 2009.
"In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions increased 3.6%.
"Investment housing commitments increased 8.9% and owner occupied housing commitments increased 1.9%."
The ABS said the "number of owner occupied housing commitments excluding refinancing, seasonally adjusted series rose 1.1% in April 2009 from March"…"while between March and April 2009, the average loan size for first home buyers fell $2,500 to $283,400, the second highest average value in the series.
"This is in contrast to the average loan size for all owner occupied housing commitments which rose $1,500 to $264,700 for the same period.
"The number of finance commitments for the construction of dwelling
