Australia’s wheat production this year could hit a four year high, according to ABARE, the government’s commodity forecaster.
It said yesterday that output may be about 22 million tonnes in 2009-2010, about steady with the March forecast of 22.1 million tonnes and last year’s crop of 21.4 million tonnes.
ABARE (the Australian Bureau of Agricultural And Resource Economics) said recent rainfall across growing regions had boost planting intentions by growers.
The news will help keep world wheat prices on the low side.
They have fallen around 10% in the past month as US growing conditions improve and offset worries that a severe drought and government-grower disputes will slash exports from Argentina.
ABARE director, Phillip Glyde said in a statement that rain in late May and early June "was timely for those winter crops that had already been sown and provided an opportunity for remaining planting intentions to be realized.
“The amount and timing of rainfall during the rest of the season will critically affect the extent to which these production outcomes are achieved,” he said.
The area sown to wheat is forecast at 13.5 million hectares, the second year more than 13 million hectares have been sown.
Wheat output of 22 million tonnes would be the highest since the 25.2 million tonne harvest in 2005-2006, if achieved by growers.
ABARE said barley production may rise 13% to 7.7 million tonnes, while canola output is forecast to drop 9% to 1.7 million tonnes.
ABARE said in the June edition of its Australian Crop report that the total area sown to winter crops in Australia is forecast to be 21.9 million hectares in 2009-10, up 1% from the previous season.
"Assuming average yields, winter crop production is forecast to be around 34.8 million tonnes in 2009-10, around 1.6 million tonnes more than the previous season’s harvest.
“The amount and timing of rainfall during the rest of the season will critically affect the extent to which these production outcomes are achieved,” Mr Glyde cautioned.
"Most of Queensland, northern and central New South Wales, western Victoria and South Australia have had relatively good starts to the 2009-10 winter cropping season," ABARE Said in the report.
"Average autumn rainfall was received in most areas and with further rain in early June; most farmers were able to finish sowing their winter crops.
"In southern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Western Australia the start to the season has been poor, with below average rainfall received throughout autumn.
"The lack of autumn rainfall in these regions meant that many winter crops were dry sown or not sown during the optimal planting window as growers waited for rain.
"However, widespread early June rainfall has provided some relief, boosting crops which have been dry sown and enabling further planting to occur in these regions."
The area sown to barley is forecast to decline by around 1%, but production is forecast to increase by 13%, assuming average yields.
The area planted to canola is forecast to increase in 2009-10. But with yields expected to fall, particularly in Western Australia, ABARE says production will be lower.
Mr Glyde said that total summer crop production in 2008-09 is estimated at 3.5 million tonnes, 11% lower than the record achieved in 2007-08.
“Grain sorghum yields were above average for a second consecutive year, but did not match the 2007-08 record.
"Grain sorghum production is estimated to have been 2.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, compared with 3.1 million tonnes harvested in the previous year,” Mr Glyde said.
"Rice and cotton production were more than double the previous year’s production, but well below historical averages," ABARE said.
This is good news for the listed grain groups such as ABB (which is subject to an offer from a Canadian grain giant), GrainCorp, AWB and Elders.
It is also good news for the country’s export performance, with another solid year of exports expected to make sure the rural sector fills some of the gap left by the downturn in resources like iron ore, coal and oil and gas.
