So what’s the outlook for BHP?
In 2007 BHP was confident that the China boom would continue; and last year the company was looking for world growth to slow, but demand for the company’s commodities to remain solid.
But there was caution, but no one could have anticipated the impact of the collapse of Lehman Brothers just over a month later on September 15.
That changed everything and sent economies around the world lower, including China’s.
But at the halfway mark in February, the company’s cautious confidence was evident:
"We expect global economic growth to be weak over the short to medium term as developed economies such as the United States and Europe enter recession and the rate of growth of emerging economies like China slows.
"Like many governments around the world, the Chinese government has introduced wide ranging stimulus measures.
However, it is likely that these measures will take some time to have a positive flow through to economic activity. In reaction to deteriorating financial and economic conditions, there is a risk of increasing protectionism by governments which may hamper any global recovery.
"Whilst the global economy faces significant challenges, our long term outlook remains unchanged.
"We expect emerging economies’ long term growth to be robust as they continue on the path to urbanisation and industrialisation."
Yesterday the company gave us more of the same, but with a bit more optimism, but it was well hedged:
"Over the past financial year the global economy deteriorated rapidly as a result of a significant decline in consumer demand stemming from the financial crisis.
"This impacted all countries through lower levels of trade, compounded by falls in private investment.
"Although economic data over recent months indicates a stabilisation across many key indicators, in general economic indicators remain weak by past standards and any assumption of a quick return to historical trend growth may be premature.
"Governments initiated economic stimulus packages have steadied the financial markets in the developed and developing economies.
"Bank funding costs dropped from recent highs in October 2008 to more normal levels by the end of June 2009.
"However, credit growth across developed economies remains weak as households and businesses attempt to take the risk out of their balance sheets.
Unemployment is still rising in many economies, albeit at a slower rate.
"As with all economic stimulus policies, the degree of support will be difficult to measure and there remains uncertainty about economic growth beyond the period of each specific program.
"In China, the response has been a sharp increase in investment that has accelerated a range of existing infrastructure and construction projects.
"This has provided strong support to short-term economic growth.
"If the recent stabilisation in the key indicators persists, many economies will improve economic output over the short term to rebuild inventory.
"However, structural economic problems will take time to correct and may hold back growth over the medium term."
BHP said the outlook for commodities was mixed to hard to fathom:
"The 2009 financial year was a year of two distinct periods.
"The first period was typified by steep falls in prices, essentially across all commodity markets in which BHP Billiton operates.
"Spot prices for our commodities fell between 50 to 90 per cent over this period as an aggressive de-stocking occurred in all regions.
"Lower prices led to supply-side cuts of five to 25 per cent year on year across the commodity suite."
This is what BHP said in February in its commodities outlook in the interim profit statement:
"The unprecedented deceleration in the global economy has sharply reduced demand for commodities.
“Producers in both developed and emerging economies have responded quickly by closing marginal sources of supply and deferring projects.
“In the short term, it is expected that many producers will primarily focus on cash conservation to cope with financial distress. We expect that commodity price weakness and volatility will persist."
But that was then, now there’s a bit of an upturn.
"While demand in developed markets remains constrained, a brighter outlook has emerged recently from some of the developing markets.
"China and India demand returned earlier than many expected, as those economies began to re-stock.
"In China in particular, re-stocking coupled with stimulus package spending, fuelled strong real demand in key commodity-intensive industries such as infrastructure, construction and real estate.
“In the second half of the financial year, spot prices for our commodities increased by up to 90 per cent from the December 2008 lows.
"However, despite the recent price rally, commodity prices at the end of the 2009 financial year were generally 20 to 60 per cent lower than at the start of the year.
"The commodity re-stocking in China now appears largely complete with substantial inventory build in specific commodities over the last three months at end-user level and in strategic stockpiles.
"Chinese demand has been exceptionally strong in cases in which imports have replaced higher cost domestic production (such as in iron ore) or where commodities have substituted unavailable products (such as copper cathode for copper scrap).
"We expect Chinese demand to more
