In Australia, the August figures for job ads, employment, housing finance, retail sales and business and consumer confidence will be released, all of which will make for another big week for the economy.
After last week’s news of better than expected growth in the June quarter and 2008-09, the markets will be assessing more up to date information.
Already building approvals for July were a bit stronger, with new private homes solid, but a sharp rise in oil imports and a slightly fall in exports saw the trade deficit jump sharply in July.
Economists will be quick to proclaim ‘rate rise looms’ if the data continues to surprise on the upside.
Watch for plenty of talk about October, November or December being the most likely months for an increase.
Retail sales will likely be key on this front as they are particularly sensitive to the fading of stimulus payments to households and hence will give a good guide as to the sustainability of the emerging economic recovery.
There’s every chance retail sales might not be as strong as they were in the June quarter, with that stimulus spending disappearing.
The jobs data is likely to see a small rise in the number of unemployment and the jobless rate could rise.
The NAB’s business confidence figures are out tomorrow, the ANZ job ads data is out today and housing finance and retail sales, plus the labour force numbers are out Wednesday and Thursday.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey is out as well.
There has been a big improvement since May and it’s currently around 19 month highs.
We will be no closer to knowing when rates will rise at the end of this week than we were on Friday.
Overseas, a week for monetary policy decisions with the central banks of the UK, Canada and New Zealand meeting.
They are likely to stick to the theme of increasing optimism but leave their interest rates on hold for some time.
The NZ and UK economies appear to be still mired in recession, compared to Australia and the US, Japan and Germany and France.
US consumer sentiment data will be watched closely for further signs of improvement.
It’s the first reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan survey for the month.
Sentiment has been weak for the past four to five months
US economic sentiment will also be revealed by the Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal evidence on the state of the economy.
The US trade figures for July will be released.
Consumer credit figures will be released by the Fed tomorrow night and are likely to show a small rise for July because of the start of the cash for clunkers car scrappage scheme.
Wall Street and other US markets are closed tonight for the Labor Day holiday, the last break until Thanksgiving in late November.
US Congress returns and bank regulation and health care, plus climate change will be all on the agenda.
Healthcare will be in focus with President Obama’s speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to change its production levels when it meets Wednesday.
Most OPEC members are said to support no change in output.
OPEC’s staff experts expect worldwide oil demand in the fourth quarter to drop by about 150,000 barrels a day from last year before rising by about that level in the first quarter of next year.
Campbell Soup Co. is likely to report flat earnings and lower revenue Friday.
Apple is expected to unveil an updated line of iPods at an event on Wednesday night, our time.
The media event will be Apple’s first since Chief Executive Steve Jobs returned from medical leave in late June after a liver transplant.
It is unclear whether Jobs, who hasn’t appeared in public since an Apple MacBook event last October, will be present at the event. And Motorola is expected to unveil Thursday its first smart phone running Google Inc.’s Android mobile operating system.
China’s monthly economic figures are expected later this week, with industrial production, inflation and exports, plus bank lending figures due for release at some stage.
