In Australia, the RBA Board minutes from the September 1 meeting, will further underline the Bank’s growing confidence in the economic outlook with the clear implication that rate hikes are on the way, but without any clear guidance as to timing.
Data for dwelling commencements and lending finance will also be released along with the Westpac leading index.
All in all it will be a quiet week here as markets digest the news of the mixed nature of data from July and August and the timing of the first rate rise.
Those talking about rises miss the appreciation of the dollar, which is a significant monetary tightening in itself, but far more invisible than a rate rise.
The Aussie dollar has risen more than 15% since May against the US dollar and over 20% since the start of the year.
If continued that will put further pressure on the entrenched rate of inflation, and cut the impact of any rise in oil prices. As well it has already cut returns from the still well performing export sector.
Many of the newly formed certainties about the first interest rate rise will depend on a reading of the RBA board minutes tomorrow, and then applying those comments to the realities of the data on retail sales, housing finance and employment.
And the Financial Times reported on the weekend that the huge $40 billion Gorgon LNG project in Western Australia will be given the green light this week by Chevron and its partners, Exxon and Shell.
That could come as early as today.
In the US, data for retail sales, business inventories, inflation, industrial production and housing starts will be released along with a survey of home builders and a couple of business surveys.
A big week for official figures, which will be overshadowed to an extent by the anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers a year ago today and then the shattering problems that hit AIG, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Fortis, AB, Royal Bank of Scotland, the Irish banks and a host of other economies and financial systems.
The US figures will no doubt confirm the US economy continues to make its way back to positive growth and Wall Street will no doubt continue to believe it is all due to its reformed ways.
In reality it is the doing of the Fed and other central banks with huge cuts in interest rates and dollops of cheap and easy to come by money.
Corporate earnings are on the improve and everyone thinks it’s due to the resilience of US business and the economy.
It’s more down to huge cost cuts (inflicted by big companies on smaller suppliers and on employees. 14.9 million unemployed is a big cost saving.
Federal Express, the big freight group and consumer giant Procter & Gamble gave better than expected updates last week.
August retail sales, due tomorrow night and the Producer Price Index and a reading on July business inventories, will be vital to investor confidence.
Retail sales will be up because of the cash for clunker car subsidy sales, producer prices will see an easing in the drop in wholesale prices and business investors will show a run down (because of car sales).
Excluding autos, the sales are projected to be up 0.4%, compared with a drop of 0.6% in July. With the car sales included, they will be up an estimated 2%, according to US surveys.
Consumer Price Index and industrial production for August are due on Wednesday and should have basically good news.
August housing starts, the usual weekly report on initial jobless claims and a survey of factory activity in the US mid-Atlantic region are scheduled on Thursday. (The Fed’s Empire state survey of manufacturing is due tonight, our time.)
President Obama is due to speak in New York on Monday on financial reforms and the need to strengthen the system to avoid another economic collapse.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will talk about "Reflections on A Year of Crisis" in Washington on Tuesday.
Fed Ex reports its latest quarterly results this week (which will be good after Friday’s upgrade) as does the biggest electrical retailer in the US, Best Buy Co. and business-software maker Oracle .
President Obama will speak Tuesday to the trade union peak body, AFL-CIO during its conference. His administration agreed with union complaints about Chinese tyre imports and slapped punitive tariffs on them late Friday in a worrying development.
China’s government attacked the move immediately over the weekend.
In Europe this week second-quarter unemployment figures for the 16-nation euro area are due tonight, our time, along with industrial production for July which is forecast to fall and the jobless rate to rise.
A monthly survey of investor confidence in Germany is tipped to show another increase when it’s released later in the week.
First half results are expected from rag traders, Next (of the UK) and Inditex SA (which is Europe’s largest clothing retailer) and UK DIY group, Kingfisher will also report its latest figures.
