Car sales were strong in August, and now skilled job vacancies have risen for a second consecutive month after more than 18 months of declines.
Figures out yesterday show that job vacancies rose 1.2% in September compared to August.
This was the second consecutive monthly increase, having steadily fallen since November 2008.
According to the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) skilled vacancies index which rose to 38.6 points this month, 50.4% lower than in September 2008.
It’s another hint that the rise in unemployment won’t be near as sharp as expected earlier in the year.
Vacancies in September rose in all three occupational groups monitored by the department.
Professional vacancies rose 1.2%, trades were up 0.8% and associate professionals increased 5.0%.
The rise in skilled vacancies was widespread with increases evident in most occupations monitored by the department.
The largest monthly rise was recorded in building and engineering professionals, up 9.1%.
Increases in skilled vacancies were recorded in a majority of states and territories in September, led by the Northern Territory (5.8%) then Victoria (4.7%).
But they fell in South Australia (1.7%) and in Queensland (1.0%).
However, all states and territories suffered declines in the year to September, led by a 58.5% drop in Western Australia because of the savage downturn in resources.
The department’s recently established internet vacancy index increased 1.9% for the month of August to 71.4 points, to be 48.4% lower than in August 2008.
That approximates the performance of the ANZ Jobs ads index where the internet advertising of jobs is down by around the same level in the past year.
The ANZ job ads index improved in August and could go the same way in September when released in a fortnight.
Meanwhile a speech yesterday by Treasury head, Dr Ken Henry has pointed to the strong contribution from the government’s stimulus spending to Australia’s solid economic performance.
He told a company directors lunch that the economy would have contracted during the course of the global economic crisis if stimulus measures had not been put in place.
"If it were not for stimulus measures the Australian economy would have contacted, with GDP (gross domestic product) falling by 1.3 percentage points over the year,’’ he told the function.
He also said that the "unemployment rate is now not expected to reach the peak of 8½ per cent forecast at Budget time".
"There are tentative signs the Australian economy is recovering and that the downturn is likely to be less severe than first thought earlier in the year,’’ Mr Henry said.
On the need for global stimulus he said: "The sustainability of the global recovery is reliant on a continued implementation of the stimulus commitment".
Dr Henry said because of the stimulus, Australia’s GDP grew by 0.6% in the June quarter.
"And our estimates are, that in the absence of this stimulus package it would have gone backwards by 1.6 per cent.
"So in our estimates, the stimulus package has contributed about two per cent to Australia’s growth through the year to the June quarter,’’ he said.
He repeated there were tentative signs Australia’s economy is recovering.
"At budget, as you’ll recall, we were expecting GDP to decline by half a percentage point in 2009/10 but recent indicators suggest a more optimistic outlook.
"The GDP outcomes for the March and June quarters have surprised all of us.
"Measures of business and consumer confidence have surged in recent months, in some cases to levels above those prior to the global financial crisis.’’
But he warned that slower domestic economic activity will continue to weigh on the demand for labour, household incomes and thus consumption.
Income growth was expected to be weak in 2009-10 for various reasons.
"A key risk to the timing and speed of a recovery in private demand is the near-term weakness in income growth," he said.
There was the fall in the terms of trade from lower contracted prices of iron ore and coal, plus lower energy prices; there was the impact of unemployment and cuts to working hours and more part time jobs on household income and there was also lower corporate profits, plus credit constraints for some sectors of business, such as commercial property.
