A week ago the federal government got a lot of publicity with a new estimate that the Australian population would rise to 35 million by 2048, a figure 7 million greater than previous estimates.
Some commentators were alarmed at the environmental impact, others at the social cost, while some doubted that the figures would be realised.
But some of those doubters should have had their questions silenced this week (others will have them confirmed) by the news that the Australian population is now growing faster than at any time in the past 28 years, and possibly more.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal that the population grew by 2.06% in the year to March this year, the fastest growth in the that period since figures were started in the their current form back in 1981.
Australians are also dying in record numbers, being born in record numbers, migrants are arriving here in numbers not recorded in almost 30 years of compiling figures.
Nearly 10,000 migrants arrived here every week in the 12 months to March 31, a figure that coincided with the depths of our economic slowdown in the 12 months to March.
All in all more than 502,000 people arrived here under varying migration schemes, such as family reunions, business and work visas of varying types.
The statistics measure net movements in the flow of population, migrants, etc: so around 97,000 migrants arrived in Australia in the March quarter, around 20,000 more than at any time since 1981.
The natural rate of growth in the population (I.e. births over deaths) rose 15% as births and deaths hit record levels.
Given that background, there’s a direct economic impact: it means economic growth and jobs growth will now have to accelerate to handle the growing number of people waiting to enter the work place.
There will be significantly higher pressures on housing of all types, pressure on state and local governments to release more land, more business for the banks for home loans and consumer credit, while retailers of varying types stand to reap enormous benefits in coming years with a rapidly rising group of consumers.
The last time Australia saw higher growth rates was in the 1950s and 1960s as a result of post war migration and high birth rates and its approaching levels nearly double the 1.2% of five years ago.
Australia’s population at March 31 this year was 21,779,000, an increase of 439,100 people over the previous year and just over 135,000 from December 2008.
Australia’s net overseas migration contributed to more than half of this growth at 63% or 278,200 people. Natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) contributed 160,800 (37%), according to the ABS.
Natural increase for the 12 months to March 31 was 160,800 persons, an increase of 15.2% (or 21,200 persons) on the natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2008 (139,700).
That was despite record deaths in the year of more than 143,000.
The ABS said the preliminary estimate for births during the year ended 31 March 2009 (304,500) was 8.2% higher than the figure for the year ended 31 March 2008 (281,500).
NSW had the largest percentage increase of 17.3%, followed by Queensland (14.5%).
The preliminary estimate for deaths during the year ended 31 March 2009 (143,700) was the highest ever recorded for a year ending March 31.
The ABS said the number of deaths registered for the 12 months to March 31 increased in comparison with the previous year, in most states and territories.
The Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest percentage increase of 5.9%, followed by South Australia (4.0%).
For the year ended 31 March 2009, Australia’s preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 278,200 persons.
This was the difference between 502,800 overseas arrivals that were added to the population (NOM arrivals) and 224,600 overseas departures that were subtracted from the population (NOM departures).
The contribution made to population growth by NOM (63.4%) was higher than that of natural increase (36.6%).
All states and territories recorded positive population growth over the 12 months ended 31 March 2009.
Western Australia recorded the fastest growth rate (3.1%), followed by Queensland (2.6%), the Northern Territory (2.2%), Victoria (2.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.8%), New South Wales (1.6%), South Australia (1.2%) and Tasmania (1.0%).
The contribution of Net Overseas Migration was the major component of population growth in South Australia at 88.9% (16,500 persons) for the year ended 31 March 2009, followed by New South Wales at 73.3% (82,500 persons).
This was followed by Victoria at 68.8% (77,000 persons), Western Australia at 64.3% (43,400 persons), the Australian Capital Territory at 53.9% (3,300 persons) and Queensland at 46.7% (52,600).
Tasmania and the Northern Territory also experienced positive net overseas migration.
For the year ended 31 March 2009, Queensland experienced the highest positive net interstate migration with a gain of 20,000 persons.
Other states and territories that experienced positive net interstate migration were Western Australia (5,900 persons), the Northern Territory (830 persons) and Tasmania (800).
Negative net interstate migration was experienced by New South Wales (-21,900 persons), South Australia (-5,000 persons), the Australian Capital Territory (-310 persons) and Victoria (-300 persons).
