A much quieter week for markets here and offshore, with only Chinese economic data for October likely to be important enough to have a serious impact on sentiment.
But the figures on Chinese inflation, exports, production, retail sales and investment are likely to contain no surprises.
If anything, they should show that the Chinese economy remains robust.
Car sales figures will be important because they are still a good indicator of steel demand (and iron ore) and consumer sentiment.
Figures out over the weekend show that sales were up 80% on October 2008, but down 8.1% on September and under 1 million units for the first time for six months.
That’s still solid and the increases from October through to April next year will be big because the same months of 2008 and 2009 were depressed by the sting of the credit crunch and fall in the world economy that worsened in December.
That also applies to other statistics and the Chinese economy will look almost bubbly for the next few months.
It’s for that reason why quite a few economists are predicting Chinese growth will easily top 9% for this quarter, exports will resume growing on a year ago and industrial production will continue to improve this quarter.
With the World Bank lifting its 2010 growth estimate for China to 8.7% from the earlier 7.7%, it is clear the pace of growth in the economy will be largely maintained around the current level.
In Australia, data for housing finance, job ads, business confidence, consumer confidence and employment will be released.
The ANZ job ads series is out later today ahead of the October labour force numbers on Thursday.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the labour force figures are likely to show a fall in employment of around 10,000 last month, after September’s surprisingly strong 40,000 gain.
"This will probably push unemployment back up to 5.8% but leaving it in the range it has been in for more than six months now.
"It wouldn’t be surprising to see consumer confidence drop back a notch from near record highs on the back of the latest interest rate hike," Dr Oliver wrote on Friday.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey is out mid week, the National Australia Bank’s monthly survey could be out tomorrow.
The Commonwealth Bank gives its September quarter update today ahead of the AGM later in the week.
Orica, the predominantly mining services and explosives group, reveals its full year figures today for the September 30 year.
Tutt Bryant, the equipment hire group, is also due to report its interim results.
AGMs include The Seven Network, Breville Group, Fairfax Media, PMP, IAG, Webster, Wesfarmers, Gunns, Fletcher Building, Computershare, Commonwealth Bank, Biota, ConnnectEast, Lend Lease, Challenger Financial, BlueScope Steel, Kepcorp, McPhersons and Automotive Group
In the US, the third quarter reporting season is close to finishing, with the week to be dominated by leading retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores, Kohl’s, JC Penny, Macy’s and Nordstrom.
Wal-Mart and perhaps Kohls will report better profits, and the others should report falls in sales and earnings, but the key will be how well cost cuts improve the actual outcome. That’s what happened in many cases in the second quarter.
Disney also reports its 4th quarter figures late in the week.
US trade and consumer sentiment data will also be released.
European GDP data is expected to confirm that the eurozone economies returned to modest growth in the September quarter.
Federal Reserve officials speak with Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on Tuesday; San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen speaks also on Tuesday and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on the same day as well.
The US Treasury holds three auctions this week to refinance US government debt in a record $US81 billion November refunding.
Last month signalled the end of the Federal Reserve’s Treasury purchase program, removing one element of demand. That may lessen demand among banks.
President Barack Obama travels to Tokyo on Thursday for discussions with the new government.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will meets ahead of his visit with Japanese finance officials.
After Japan, Obama will visit Singapore and then China.
Reuters reported on Friday that with 88% of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having reported, third-quarter results are expected to fall 15% from the September quarter of 2008, down from the 18% forecast the week before.
Thomson Reuters estimates that of the 440 companies in the S&P 500 that have posted results, 80% reported earnings above analysts’ expectations, 6% matched and 14% missed estimates.
Altogether, companies are reporting earnings 15% above estimates, above the highest-ever surprise factor of 13% recorded in the second quarter.
So far, 44 companies have predicted fourth-quarter results below market expectations, while 36 have predicted results above analysts’ estimates, Thomson Reuters reported.
