Confidence manifests itself in different ways, not just interest rates and at the consumer level, which eased in October, but not by much (see below).
In the midst of the toughest 12-18 months Australia has had financially since 2001, more new Australians were born in the 2009 financial year than in any previous year.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday that a total of 296,600 births were registered in 2008, surpassing the previous record years of 2007 (285,200 births) and 1971 (276,400).
Given that we went through the global financial crisis which intensified from September 2008 onwards and then the recession, which rolled up to our shores/beaches, then retreated, the figures from the ABS are quite astounding.
While we were busily worrying about the crunch, the slump and jobs, more couples were forced to stay at home (ABS figures show spending in cafes and restaurants fell) off an on in 2008 and early 2009.
Was it that we became a nation of stop at homes (watch the likes of MasterChef Australia), and not going out?
Did unemployment, or underemployment as working hours were cut, leave couples with more times on their hands and a desire to fill it in an age old way?
Certainly starting or adding to an existing family is certainly a very confident act.
In the midst of the global crunch in late 2007 and the early months of calendar 2008, more and more Australians were confident enough to start the process to expand their families.
The upshot was a birth boom of the sort we have not seen before, according to the ABS.
The Bureau said that Tasmania had "the highest fertility rate, with 2.24 babies per woman, slightly higher than the Northern Territory (2.22), while the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest at 1.76.
"Women in Tasmania and the Northern Territory were also having their children at younger ages; fertility rates were highest for women aged 25-29 years, for the rest of Australia it was highest for women aged 30-34 years.
"Overall, Australia had a total fertility rate of 1.97 babies per woman, up from 1.92 in 2007 and the highest since 1977 (2.01). Nearly half (43%) of all births in 2008 were to first time mothers, while a third (33%) were having their second child."
With this sort of explosion in births, and high levels of immigration, it’s no wonder the Australian population is now growing faster than it has done in decades.
The ABS reported in late September that in the year to March Australia’s population increased by 2.1%.
"The last time Australia saw higher growth rates was in the 1950s and 1960s as a result of post war migration and high birth rates. These rates compare with a 1.2% growth rate recorded five years ago."
Meanwhile, at the consumer level the Reserve Bank would have been happy at October’s dip in consumer confidence.
That’s probably what it had been looking to happen.
But it wasn’t such a shock that after successive rate rises from the Reserve Bank (followed by bank home loan rate rises) and an awful lot of media reporting, that consumer confidence fell last month.
The survey of 1,200 people aged over 18 was conducted between November 2 and 8.
The RBA lifted rates on November 3, at the start of the survey, so the news would have been to the forefront of public discussion early on.
Westpac said that the survey it does with the Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.5 to 118.3 in November, from 121.4 in October.
The index had risen in October by 1.7.
The fall was in contrast to the rise last week in the Roy Morgan poll.
(It was done, however, the weekend before the Melbourne Cup rate rise and is due to be updated tomorrow.)
It also followed the fall in the ANZ job ads series on Monday (which some attributed to the rate rise that month), but there was no sign of any impact higher rates had on the "remarkable" level of business confidence, or the sharp improvement (and widespread, it must be said) in business conditions in the NAB’s October monthly report.
In a statement, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said consumer sentiment was still strong.
"Given that this fall comes after a second consecutive increase in the Reserve Bank’s overnight cash rate and associated increases in variable mortgage rates it has to be classified as a modest response," Mr Evans said.
"The level of the Index is still 38.3 per cent above its level from a year ago." (Something also supported by the Morgan weekly survey.)
