In the week ahead in Australia, the focus will be on the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision tomorrow, while overseas, the panic over Dubai will ease, but not go away, and questions over the health of the US economy will return on Friday night with the November jobless figures.
Here the RBA is expected to lift rates for an unprecedented third month in a row according to many economists.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says that with the exception of retail sales and September quarter business investment, most indicators have been coming in on the strong side since the last meeting and "our assessment is that the RBA will increase the cash rate again by another 0.25%".
"However, it is a very close call between moving again and leaving rates on hold," he said in his weekly comment.
"The RBA has itself said that rate hikes will be gradual and with uncertainty still remaining about the strength of the global financial system and recovery (as highlighted by Dubai’s woes and the resultant slump in investor confidence) and with underlying inflation still falling there is a strong case for the RBA to wait to see what the impact of the last two rate hikes has been before moving again, which is what I think they actually should do."
Besides the RBA decision, we will also see data on new home sales (November), private sector credit (October) and building approvals and retail sales (both October) released.
Business indicators for the September quarter will also be released.
October retail sales are expected to bounce back after the soft result in September.
Car sales figures from the industry for the month will also be released late in the week.
There are more than 80 annual meetings set down for today, the last day of the meeting season (November) for June 30 balancing companies. All are small or medium mining or technology companies.
There were more than 90 on Friday and the same last Thursday. Madness,
Harvey Norman, a June 30 balancing retailer, holds its AGM in Sydney at 11 am,.
David Jones, which holds its AGM in Sydney at the same time, is a July 25 balancing retailer. David Jones has taken less time to call its shareholders to meet than Harvey Norman and deserves brownie points for that.
Struggling property groups, Goodman and Valad also have AGMs today.
Both have been among the biggest losers in the crunch, racking up huge losses and loss of value for securityholders.
Nufarm, the September 30 balancing agricultural chemical group, holds its AGM this week. We could get full details of whether the bid from a Chinese group is successful.
Washington Soul Pattinson holds its AGM later in the week as well.
Interim results are expected from retailer and wholesaler, Metcash today.
We may learn more about its plans for Mitre 10, the hardware group, if its offer is successful.
In the US, the labour market will be the centre of attention with payroll figures due for release Friday night.
Given the improving trend in unemployment claims, business employment surveys and layoff announcements, a slowing in the rate of losses is expected with market estimates for job cuts last month to total 100,000.
There is also a chance that unemployment may have fallen slightly from the 10.2% level of the previous month.
Since the US recession began in December 2007, the number of unemployed has increased by 8.2 million and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points.
The key US ISM business conditions surveys will also be released, along with figures on car sales and early updates from the huge retailing sales season that started Friday in the US.
US new-vehicle sales are expected to rise in November from the same month last year.
Forecasters however say the overall annualized sales rate in November is projected to be 10.3 million, down slightly from October’s 10.43 million rate.
Major retailers (But not Wal-Mart) will report same-store sales for November on Thursday. Expectations are for modest improvement. Their comments about the weekend sales will draw attention from investors.
October construction spending and pending home sales are due tomorrow and the Federal Reserve releases its beige book of economic conditions in various areas of the country on Wednesday.
Third quarter productivity figures are out on Thursday and October factory orders next Friday.
General Motors will present a detailed restructuring plan for its German unit Adam Opel subsidiary this week: up to 9,000 jobs could go, many in Germany. Standby for a bit of a brawl between the company and the government of Angela Merkel.
GM may also reveal what it plans to do with its Saab subsidiary after an earlier plan to sell it collapsed.
And, perhaps the most interesting public appearance will come Thursday when the US Senate’s Banking Committee holds a confirmation to consider Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s appointment for a second term. Bernanke was appointed by President Obama to a second four-year term in August.
The hearing is likely to be a contentious one, with Bernanke on the receiving end of tough questioning from politicians over the performance of the Fed in the credit crisis.
