After last week’s interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank, this week we see the economic stories for the month of October and the September quarter further fleshed out with the release of a series of reports.
We will see job ads, the trade balance for October, the current account for the September quarter, business and consumer confidence for November, while we will also get October’s housing finance and employment.
Business confidence and conditions will be reported on by the monthly report from the National Australia Bank while consumer confidence will be released Wednesday by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.
Business and consumer confidence are likely to show small falls, albeit from very high levels, in response to the three interest rate hikes.
In fact the Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence survey showed a small fall last week, but it remains at high levels.
Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens speaks tomorrow night in Sydney in his final public appearance of the year.
He’s at a the annual forecasting dinner of Australian Business Economists.
Then on Thursday Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle speaks at a Westpac organised strategy forum in Sydney.
Employment is out on Thursday and is expected to be flat after two months of solid gains and the unemployment rate is likely to remain around 5.8%.
The November ANZ Jobs ads survey figures, also for November, out later today.
The September quarter balance of payments figures will give us more of an idea about the growth picture in the quarter, while the trade figures for October will be examined to see if the improvement in September has continued.
Corporate news is quiet this week with Westpac’s strategy update due to be held today.
Westpac will feel supported by the ANZ and CBA lifting rates by more than 0.25%, unlike the NAB.
Perhaps CEO, Gail Kelly and other managers will finally explain last week’s rude 0.45% lift in mortgage interest rates, a grab for more money from home owners who have mortgages with the bank.
The Bank of Queensland is due to hold its AGM this week, as is the Westpac Offshoot, BT Investment Management.
Plus, markets here and offshore will be watching reports from Copenhagen where the global warming summit will be held.
Central banks in Canada, the UK and New Zealand all meet in the week ahead but all are expected to leave interest rates at current low levels.
Some might express more optimism in the outlook though as the European Central Bank which last week revealed plans to unwind its stimulus package a bit faster than expected and upgraded its 2010 growth forecasts.
The good employment figures for the US for November will help.
A flood of economic data from Japan and China will keep investors’ attention next week fixed on the region.
Japanese GDP, Chinese retail sales and inflation data will be in focus.
Chinese asset growth, industrial production and real estate prices are also due for release.
The Central Economic Work Conference, attended by senior officials from both central and local governments, will review China’s stimulus measures over the past year and determine the parameters of policy for next year.
The ruling Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo set the stage for the conference by declaring a week ago last Friday that China would stick to its "proactive" fiscal setting and "moderately loose" monetary stance.
But the statement also said the policy would be implemented flexibly, which will allow authorities the option of changing and altering policy to correct imbalances in the economy.
The Bank of Korea’s interest rate meeting will also be in the spotlight.
In the US retail sales for November will be watched very closely as it will encompass the all important post Thanksgiving Day start to the Christmas shopping season.
Anecdotal reports suggest a modest gain in sales.
Major retailers, Costco and Kroger are due to release quarterly reports this week.
US trade and consumer sentiment data will also be released, along with the important consumer credit figures for October.
Investors will be listening carefully to Ben Bernanke when he addresses the Economic Club on Monday.
He will continue to argue against proposed legislation changing the Fed’s status and independence.
Investors will also be watching to see if he makes any comments about the economy.
The Fed’s final two meeting of the year is next week.
Government data on Friday showed the US economy shed 11,000 jobs in November — far less than the 130,000 lost jobs that analysts had forecast.
But the monthly payrolls report is a double-edged sword for the US stock market, with the market now stating to factor in an earlier than expected rate rise next year.
Talk of raising rates will keep the spotlight on the US dollar which jumped sharply on Friday after the jobs data was released.
That pushed equities and commodities off the rails a bit in late trading.
