The Australian economy’s rebound is still happening, according to job ads figures from the ANZ’s November report yesterday.
The ANZ said yesterday the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet rose 5.2%, reversing a 1.7% drop in October.
It was the strongest growth in job ads for two years.
Ads in papers alone rose 8.3%, which should be good news for the likes of Fairfax and News Ltd.
"The 8.3% lift in newspaper job advertising in November is particularly encouraging, given that this sector tends to ‘lead’ overall job advertising trends," according to Warren Hogan, ANZ’s acting chief economist.
He said that with other positive recent economic news, "these data imply that Australia’s recovery from the recent downturn is gathering pace," he said in a statement today.
The ANZ’s survey’s rise comes after the Olivier recruitment group’s index showed full time job ads rose 5.9% last month, more than the 4.6% increase in part-time positions job ads.
Job ads rose to average 140,658 a week last month, but the job gains came entirely in part-time work.
Mr Hogan said full-time jobs have dropped 10,400 since June, while part-time positions have added 85,500 in the same period.
"The net addition in headcount in recent months is telling us only part of the labour market story, with actual demand still proving to be soft," Mr Hogan said in a statement.
But the ANZ report shows that total job advertisements are now 12.3% higher than the trough recorded in July, but they are still 34.2% lower than in November 2008.
In trend terms, the total number of job advertisements increased by 1.6% in November, the same pace of trend growth as seen in October.
The number of internet job advertisements rose by 5.0% to average 131,128 per week but they remained 35.1% lower than a year ago.
In trend terms, internet job advertisements rose by 1.5% in November but are still 36.6% lower than in November 2008 in trend terms.
The ANZ said that in trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements grew by 2.3% in November, their sixth consecutive month of trend growth
"The biggest increase in newspaper job advertisements in September was in WA (+18.4%), followed by VIC (+14.0%), the NT (+10.5%), the ACT (+10.3%), SA (+7.2%), NSW (+6.0%) and TAS (+0.8%).
"QLD was the only state to experience a fall in newspaper job advertisements this month," the ANZ said.
The November employment and jobs figures are out Thursday: the market thinks 5,000 new jobs were created, but the unemployment rate could rise to 5.9% as more people rejoin the work force looking for jobs.
Mr Hogan said total job advertisements are now well past their trough point, with four months of trend growth recorded since July.
"The 8.3% lift in newspaper job advertising in November is particularly encouraging, given that this sector tends to ‘lead’ overall job advertising trends. Eventually the improvement in job advertising will translate into higher employment growth.
"The recent strength in job advertising is consistent with the positive trends seen in many other indicators across the Australian economy.
"Taken together, these data imply that Australia’s recovery from the recent downturn is gathering pace.
"Employment growth is also now trending upwards, after contracting through the first half of 2009.
"The unemployment rate appears to have stabilised in the high ‘fives’.
"This is good news for households and businesses alike, but net jobs growth remains weak by historical standards, with considerable volatility in recent monthly jobs growth."
"In the near term, we expect weak employment growth over the summer months.
"If total hours worked picks up pace, then more of these jobs will be full-time.
"But even with this jobs growth, continuing labour force growth will still see a further increase in the national unemployment rate, probably to around 6.5% in mid-2010," Mr Hogan said.
