Greece, US earnings, the weakening euro and a Chinese tightening will all play a part in the markets this week, along with the flow of Australian interim earnings and more speculation about interest rates.
The latter will be dominated by the Reserve Bank where it’s a big week.
The minutes from the Reserve Bank’s meeting on February 2 are out tomorrow.
Friday sees testimony to the House of Representatives economics committee from Governor Stevens.
Both are seen as shedding more light on the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates on hold in February, which seems to have been made redundant by last week’s sharp rise in jobs created last month.
The minutes and Governor Stevens’ testimony will be added to by speeches by senior RBA officials Guy Debelle (assistant governor financial markets )and Phil Lowe (assistant governor economics) will also be doubt be looked at closely for more clues as to when the next rate hike might come.
All up, we will be left with a clear impression that more interest rate hikes are likely on the way.
A National Bank business survey will also be released along with data for skilled job vacancies, figures on lending finance and imports for January.
The profit reporting season in Australia will roll on with companies such as Fosters, Mirvac, OneSteel, Ansell, Brambles, Coca Cola (full year), CSL, AMP (full year), Qantas, Wesfarmers and Billabong due to report.
Others reporting will include Bendigo Bank, BlueScope Steel, Crane Group, GWA, Commonwealth Property Office Fund, Primary Healthcare, Wattyl, Monodelphous Group, Photon, Isoft, CFS Retail Fund, Seek, AXA Asia Pacific (full year), The Reject Shop, Clough, Biota, Connecteast, Wotif, Transurban, CSL, Ansell, Macmahon Holdings, Lihir Gold (full year), PMP, Prime Media, Austereo, Westfarmers, West Australian Newspapers (was last week, now today), Worleyparsons, ASX, Super Cheap Auto, Adelaide Brighton, Amalgamated Holdings, Fortescue Metals, Paperlinx, Cons Media, Centennial Coal, Boart Longyear and Austral.
We will also get profit and trading updates from Westpac and the NAB, and perhaps the ANZ during the week.
All eyes in this region will be on China’s markets today where news of the second lift in the reserve asset ratio for banks came after trading ended Friday.
Japanese December quarter GDP (out today) growth is expected to show growth of around 0.9%.
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Any weakness in China will overshadow the impact of what are expected solid figures.
In the US, figures for consumer and producer price inflation, housing starts, a survey of home builders, industrial production and a couple of business surveys will be released.
Most US markets will be closed, or trading thinly, because it’s President’s Day in the US tonight.
The health of the US economy will drift back into view with reports on new housing starts and building permits for January (they will have to show a sharp rise to be convincing), industrial production (probably higher) and inflation (moderate and no threat).
Weak housing starts for a second month will add to the growing worry that the stricken US housing market is heading for a double dip.
US corporate earnings for the 4th quarter continue, although they are starting to wind down.
But Wal-Mart Stores’ 4th quarter sales and earnings on Thursday night, our time, will be a major report.
The biggest retailer in the US and the world is an important indicator as to how consumer demand is travelling.
Wal-Mart’s quarterly results will also show whether the company gained ground during the critical holiday sales period and if its retail strategy is holding onto its shoppers.
Smaller retailers will also report this week, including Abercrombie & Fitch and JCPenney.
Dow components Kraft and Merck will report as does Whole Foods, the biggest health food and organic retailer in the US, will join them after the close.
In technology, Hewlett-Packard and Dell both report. They will give us more of an idea about how technology is travelling.
The US Fed’s minutes of its last meeting at the end of January will be released and several regional Fed officials are set to speak.
Notable will be Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President, Thomas Hoenig, who argued at that recent Fed meeting against the current policy of keeping interest rates at very low levels for an "extended period".
