In Australia, we are getting closer to learning about 4th quarter GDP on Wednesday week.
So this week we will get figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for business investment, wages and private credit (from the Reserve Bank) and construction activity and car sales for January.
Construction activity is likely to have increased by around 1.5% on the back of the housing recovery and stimulus spending.
The December quarter capital spending is likely to show a rebound after a weak September quarter data.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver said improving business confidence is likely to have contributed to another upwards revision to business investment plans.
He says December quarter wages growth is likely to have remained benign and data for car sales and private credit will also be released.
RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino also speaks.
He follows appearances and comments last week by Governor Glenn Stevens, who appeared at the House of Representatives Economics Committee on Friday, Assistant Governors (economics), Phil Lowe, who spoke Thursday and the Assistant governor in charge of financial markets, and Guy Debelle, who spoke on Wednesday.
All made the point that the Australian economy had improved dramatically since a year ago, with financial markets healthier and the economy now growing on its own, with a promising outlook thanks to China and India.
That’s in dramatic contrast to the current state of the economies in the US, Japan, Europe and the UK.
His speech will also be watched closely given he alluded to a possible pause in interest rate hikes in a speech late last year.
He has, in the past year, made significant remarks about the economy as a sort of summary to the flow of commentary from the central bank in the preceding week or two.
The profit reporting season in Australia will roll on with companies such as Aristocrat, GPT, Suncorp Metway, Harvey Norman, Fairfax, IAG and QBE due to report.
Also expected to report this week are Caltex, UGL Ltd, Australian Worldwide, Sonic, GPT, Amcor, Boom Logistics, Asciano, APA Group, Transfield Services, Emeco, Goodman Group, Lend Lease, Toll, Origin, Downer EDI, Goodman Fielder, Tatts, Breville Group, Premier Investments, Perpetual, OZ Minerals, Origin Energy, Woolworths, AP Eager, AGL Energy, Harvey Norman, Beach Petroleum, Woodside and Virgin Blue.
Crown and Cons Media are now due this coming Friday, not last week. Austar releases 2009 full year figures.
Seven Network is due out this week as well, as are APN News and Media.
In a big week after the Fed lifted the discount rate it charges banks to 0.75% and shortened the maturity for loans to the normal overnight term.
The rise is the first upward move in any US official rate since August 2007.
It came as a complete surprise early Friday, our time.
So the flow of data for house prices, new and existing home sales, consumer confidence and durable goods orders will be the key focus.
Interest will focus on the second estimate for US 4th quarter GDP.
The first estimate said GDP rose an annual rate of 5.7%, after increasing 2.2% in the third quarter.
A downward revision is expected with some forecasts saying the annual rate could fall to around 4% by the third revision at the end of March.
In all of 2009, US GDP fell 2.4%, the biggest drop for a calendar year since 10.9% in 1946.
And then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s makes his usual bi-annual testimony before the House of Representatives and Senate committees this week.
After last week’s surprise move, there will be considerable interest in the comments from the Fed chairman, especially the Fed’s line that the discount rate increase does not signal any change in the outlook for monetary policy.
Mr Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the next day he is due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee.
While the rate hike confirmed that the Fed now considers the financial sector to have healed sufficiently to warrant pushing harder in removing the trillions of dollars in extraordinary liquidity it injected into the US economy since mid-2007.
But there are some nervous nellies who, having talked about the evils of debt and deficits, are now uneasy about the possible removal of economic stimuli.
The Fed repeated on Friday morning in its statement that it sees its benchmark Fed funds rate remaining at the current record low levels for "an extended period" to sustain the recovery
Earnings from major US retailers, including Home Depot Inc, Nordstrom, Target Corp and Macy’s and supermarket chain Safeway.
Home builder Toll Brothers, Lowes, Radioshack and gold miner Newmont Mining Corp are also due to report. Campbell Soup is also due top report its earnings and they are expected to be soft after the company cut its 2010 sales forecasts on Thursday.
Toyota’s chairman, Akio Toyoda, appears before a US Congressional Committee on Wednesday night, our time in Washington.
In Japan, deflation will continue to be the primary concern for the economy as CPI numbers are released Friday.
Retail sales and unemployment figures are also expected to be released in Japan.
India’s GDP will be released on Thursday.
