More figures on China’s economy out later today, but already the flow of early data suggests still strong growth.
China’s exports and imports jumped in February from a year ago, but there a couple of points that mean the figures are unreliable.
Firstly the rises are from February 2009, which is when demand for Chinese exports and demand from industry for imports, was slashed by the GFC and credit crunch.
Secondly, the Lunar New Year was in January last year, this year it was in February.
China shuts down for more than a week, and the impact of the long break is hard to work out when making comparisons especially when the basis is a very weak month as February was last year (and January as well).
That all helped the trade surplus shrink to the lowest level in a year, especially coupled with the strong rebound in the economy since February 2009.
The export import figures were released yesterday in China, ahead of a bigger release today of data on inflation, production, retail sales and urban asset growth.
Reports yesterday suggested that Chinese car sales rose strongly again last month, but at a slower rate than January, while bank lending halved from January in February as the central government ordered banks to lend less.
And real estate prices accelerated last month, rising by their fastest pace in two years despite government efforts to cool the market amid fears of a looming property bubble.
Figures released last night showed prices of commercial and residential property in China’s 70 largest cities rose by 10.7% in February from the same month in 2009, up from the 9.5% year-on-year gain in January.
That got western commentators once again yelling ‘bubble’, ‘bubble’ and warning of collapse.
Exports rose 45.7% in February, from a year ago imports jumped 44.7% percent from a year ago as well.
The trade surplus almost halved to $US7.6 billion from $US14.2 billion in January.
Exports were down 2.2% from January.
That may have resulted from the timing difference with the Lunar new Year Festival, but omitted to point out that February 2009 had been among the low points for China’s economy (along with January and November-December, 2008).
Commerce Minister Chen Deming said last weekend that the country’s trade surplus fell 50.2% in January and February from a year earlier.
Chinese banks made loans for about 700 billion Yuan ($102.6 billion) in February, around half the 1.39 trillion Yuan worth of loans issued in January.
Media reports in China said that China’s four largest lenders together lent about 294 billion Yuan of the total loans made during the month, with unlisted Agricultural Bank of China leading with total loans of 82 billion Yuan.
China has set the official loan target for 2010 at 7.5 trillion Yuan, after record loans of 9.6 trillion Yuan in 2009.
And China’s car sales slowed last month, with the Lunar New Year holidays the culprit.
China’s Association of Auto Manufactures said overnight that 2.88 million vehicles were sold in January and February.
February saw 1.2 million units sold, which was a fall from the very strong 1.66 million sold in January.
February’s sales were 46% above the depressed February figures of a year ago, but the Lunar New Year holiday fell in January 2009 and not February as it did this year.
Sales for January and February were up 83.8% from the same months of 2009.
