In Australia, the focus will be on data for retail sales, building approvals and private credit as these will be the last major data releases ahead of the RBA’s next board meeting tomorrow week, after the Easter break.
The private lending figures for February this week from the Reserve Bank. We should be looking for a slowing in housing credit and an uptick in business loans.
Major stats next week include retail sales and building approvals for February (both out on Wednesday) and the monthly trade report also for February on Thursday.
All three will tell us if the economy’s recent solid growth has continued.
However, it’s unlikely that the readings will be decisive enough to have a big impact on the RBA’s thinking.
February retail sales growth is likely to slow to around 0.3% after a strong rise in January, building approvals are likely to bounce back a bit after a sharp fall and the private sector credit growth figures will confirm that the slump in lending has bottomed and started turning higher.
RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle speaks midweek at a securitisation conference and the market will be watching that for clues as to whether interest rates will be increased again at next week’s meeting.
The week also sees the end of the first half for our big three banks, the NAB, ANZ and Westpac. The Bank of Queensland, CSR, Orica and James Hardie are other March 31 balancing companies.
Nufarm’s interim results are due today.
And the market is still awaiting Sigma’s 2009-10 financial results which were promised a week ago.
The company said the results were expected to be released by or before tomorrow.
So the expected huge loss could come today.
The verdict of the case against four Rio Tinto workers in China, will be known today.
In the US, the highlight will be the March employment report on Friday which is likely to show a solid rebound in employment after the snowstorm affected weakness in February.
A gain of around 190,000-200,000 jobs is likely.
If this is the case it is likely to add to confidence that the US recovery is becoming self-sustaining.
The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.7%.
Data for house prices, consumer confidence, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing confidence survey will also be released.
The Japanese Tankan business sentiment survey from the Bank of Japan and two competing Chinese purchasing managers index reports will drive investor interest for the week.
Similar reports for manufacturing in Australia, the UK, parts of Europe and the US will be released.
The release of the Chinese manufacturing conditions indexes or PMI (Performance of Manufacturing Index) will also be watched closely, given a significant fall in February.
The state of the consumer will be measured by February income and spending data on Monday and March consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Personal income is expected to rise 0.1%, mirroring the previous month’s rise, while the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is seen rising to 50, from 46 in February, according to US surveys.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index for January, due on Tuesday, is expected to show house prices fell 0.7 % year-over-year, a much slower pace than the 3.1% recorded in December.
US car sales figures for March are expected on Thursday, ahead of the holidays.
One thing investors should watch out for is the end of month and quarter on Wednesday.
That is likely to produce some odd market activity, even some ‘window dressing’.
Markets are up around 7% or so for March so far: watch fund managers try and lock those in.
