The East Asian economy is forecast to expand by 8.7% this year supported by a recovery in global demand and capital inflows, growth in consumer spending and sustained stimulus, the World Bank said in a report issued this week.
Largely due to China, the region’s output, exports and employment have mostly returned to the levels before the crisis.
No other major group of economies have managed that recovery.
Leading the global economy, real GDP growth in developing East Asia is poised to rise to 8.7% in 2010 after slowing from 8.5% in 2008 to 7.0% in 2009.
The Washington-based World Bank has upgraded its forecast from November’s 6.7%, reflecting its growing confidence in the region.
This is good news for Australia because it confirms that our biggest destination for exports will again grow strong this year, even as India and China continue to tighten monetary policy to slow their strong growth.
"East Asia has emerged stronger from the global crisis and rapid growth will be possible in the coming years even in a weakened global economy," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.
"Recovery in demand abroad, a sustained fiscal and monetary stimulus within developing East Asia, and a rapid rebound in consumer spending prompted the Bank to raise its projection for the region’s real GDP growth in 2010 to 8.7 percent, almost a percentage point above its November 2009 forecast.
"The region has emerged from the crisis with manageable deficits and relatively low public and external debt, and social protection mechanisms have protected the poor from the worst effects of the slowdown.
"The region has emerged stronger in a weakened world economy, in much better shape than after the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
"This remarkable recovery has been due to a large and timely policy stimulus, renewed inventory restocking, and the return of buoyant demand abroad and consumer sentiment.
"Even with the large stimulus, fiscal deficits and debt are contained and for most countries pose no dangers to debt sustainability.
"Solid economic fundamentals, including high foreign exchange reserves, well-capitalized banks and modest levels of household, corporate and government debt have also been key factors for the recovery.
"Capital flows have roared back, even as tight global financial conditions and ample spare capacity prompt worries that the “new normal” will be characterized by slower global growth. But large capital inflows have also raised alarms about new asset bubbles in some countries." (Read China, especially property)
"Authorities in the region are confronting these risks at the same time they are returning to a reform agenda needed to secure strong and sustained growth.
"While upbeat about the pace of East Asia’s recovery, strongly influenced by China, the World Bank says in the update that the region is facing a very different global economy over the medium term.
“The ‘new normal’ will be characterized by slower growth in developed countries, tighter global financial conditions, rising concerns about developed countries’ debt levels, and a more difficult environment for global trade,” according to Vikram Nehru, World Bank chief economist for the East Asia Pacific region.
“In that setting, the developing countries of East Asia will need to carefully manage the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the short term while returning to their structural reform agendas to promote growth in the long term.”
The World Bank noted the return of capital flows to the region, with most of the $US700 billion to $US800 billion worth of capital flows this year going to East Asia.
"Capital flows to East Asia will be supported by expectations of robust growth based on solid fundamentals and prudent policies that are likely to be adjusted with more agility to the changed circumstances of the global economy than in other developing regions," the World Bank said.
China was the driver (without it, growth last year would have been just 1.3% instead of 7%).
The Bank said that "China strongly influenced developments in the region" with its monetary and fiscal stimulus policies limiting the slowdown.
However, it also warned against the rapid withdrawal of economic stimulus policies and said the rebalancing of China’s economy away from export-led growth toward expansion of the service sector and greater private consumption would be "key" to sustainable growth.
"Unbeknownst to many, private consumption made a significant contribution to China’s economic growth in 2009, or 2.8 percentage points to be exact," said the report.
But the World Bank suggested that China can no longer head down the export at will route:
"For China, rebalancing the economy as emphasized in the 11th five-year plan will be key.
"Rebalancing has several dimensions, including restructuring the composition of economic growth by enabling a larger role for the service sector and private consumption, away from investment-heavy export-led growth, and encouraging more environmental sustainability," The bank said.
