Data from China and America will dominate the markets this week.
As we saw on Friday, the quarterly info from China is out this Thursday.
But already March car sales look solid, according to early reports and there’s news China had a rare trade deficit for March of $US7.3 billion, the first in six years.
China exports rose 24.3% to $US112.11 billion in March, while the imports surged 66% year-on-year to $US119.35 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $US7.24 billion.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says he’s expecting China’s first quarter GDP growth of around 12% (annual), but he sees inflation falling back from 2.7% to 2.6% (annual), helped by softer food prices.
In the US we will see data for the trade balance, inflation, retail sales, industrial production, a couple of business surveys, housing starts, a survey of home builders and consumer sentiment.
It will be a big week for testing the growing belief that the US recovery is becoming well founded.
Strong anecdotes and industry surveys last week suggest that US retail sales were very strong in March, likely rising by another 1.3% or so.
US consumer sentiment is likely to have been boosted by recent news of rising employment and core inflation is likely to have remained benign.
The earnings period kicks off with results from Dow component Alcoa early tomorrow morning, our time.
We then get results from majors such as tech giants, Intel and Google, plus General Electric, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
That will give us spread from manufacturing and international trade (Intel, Alcoa and GE), banking and financial services (Bank of America, GE and JP Morgan Chase), hi tech (Intel) and the internet and advertising (Google).
These results and several others could very well set the tone for the first quarter reporting season in the first week.
Thomson Reuters is forecasting a 36.8% rise in earnings for the 500 companies in the S&P 500.
Some 72% of companies beat earnings estimates in the fourth quarter, down from a record 79% in the previous quarter, but still well above the 61%, according to figures from Thomson Reuters.
Besides the flow of economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index, March retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and consumer sentiment reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee.
He reminded everyone in a speech last week that the jobs market remains weak and that the US housing sector is again weakening and could be a new danger to the economy.
Mr Bernanke is scheduled to speak on Wednesday to a congressional panel called the Joint Economic Committee.
Although data continues to show economic improvement, the Fed has reiterated its commitment to keep benchmark interest rates near zero.
Also on Wednesday’s agenda: the US Consumer Price Index and the government’s data on retail sales, both for March. Industrial production is out Thursday, and March housing starts the day after.
In Australia, data for housing finance, business confidence and consumer confidence will be released.
The Bank of Queensland releases its interim results later in the week, Coal and Allied holds its AGM Friday and Australand has its AGM Thursday.
There should also be more on the battle for control of Macarthur Coal.
