A quieter week ahead, but the continuing doubts about Europe and the euro will be more than enough to hold our attention.
The wash up over the federal budget here has gone, but in the US there will also be a flow of data that will add to the picture of a strengthening economy.
Manufacturing conditions surveys for May are likely to show continuing strength, but a survey of home builders is likely to be down after the expiry of a first time home buyer tax credit in April.
Inflation data for April is also out and will not be terrifying.
US housing starts for April will be watched to see if the end of the tax credit has had an impact here as well.
And minutes from the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting will also be released.
We will see more results from retailers this week after the April retail sales figures on Friday were a bit stronger than expected.
Sales rose 0.4% after rising 2.1% in March.
Total sales were up 8.8% over April 2009.
Sales excluding cars and car parts jumped 0.4% from March.
April’s increase was double what markets had expected and marked the seventh straight monthly gain.
Below-par results on Friday from retailers, including Nordstrom and J.C. Penney Co Inc, cast some doubt on the strength of consumer demand.
Among the retail groups reporting next week are Wal-Mart Stores, Abercrombie & Fitch, Home Depot and Lowe’s Co.
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But Kohl’s and Macys both reported solid results.
Other retailers to report include Target Corp, Limited Brands (which owns lingerie group Victoria’s Secret) video game retailer GameStop Corp, women’s clothing retailer Ross Stores, major US office supplies retailer Staples, and personal computer maker Dell Inc.
Tuesday also sees tech giant, Hewlett-Packard will report results. General Motors reports tonight.
In Australia, consumer confidence for April is out Wednesday and is likely to have dipped following the latest interest rate hike and the arguments about tax and the federal budget.
Wages data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics is likely to show continued moderate growth: average weekly earnings and the labour price index will both be released.
The Minutes from the RBA’s May board meeting are out tomorrow and will confirm that, while borrowing rates have essentially returned to longer term average levels, the bias for the RBA is still towards more interest rate hikes.
Speeches by RBA officials (Malcolm Edey, Assistant Governor and Luci Ellis, head of the financial stability department) will also be watched closely for more clues on interest rates.
Elders releases its first half results today.
They are likely to contain more losses from write-downs of some of the businesses it has exited, such as selling managed investment schemes.
Other statistics include car sales for April and lending finance for April.
In Asia, traders will watch whether the Bank of Japan takes any steps to grow the economy when it announces its monetary policy decision.
Japanese GDP data for the March quarter is expected to confirm that Japan’s recovery is continuing with growth of around 1.4% in the quarter.
But US markets face more volatility this week and so will markets in Australia and Asia.
