At last a small hint that the moves by the Chinese government to control property prices are having an impact, with the news that prices rose 12.4% in the year to May in the country’s 70 largest cities.
That was only a small fall from the 12.8% annual rate in April, but a fall nevertheless, especially after the rise from 11.8% to 12.8% in April from March.
At the same time the surge in exports in May hinted at in a leak this week was confirmed yesterday with news that they jumped by 48.5% (close enough to the 50% figure rumoured on Wednesday).
Imports showed a strong rise and the country’s May trade surplus jumped to more than $US18 billion (see below).
But iron ore imports fell 6% in May to 51.9 million tonnes, from 55.33 million tonnes in April and 59 million tonnes in April. Copper and oil imports also eased.
But the property centre commands the attention at the moment and the 25% drop in the value of sales reported in May was a far more significant figure as it indicates the moves to cool the market are biting.
May was also important because it showed a significant slowing in the annual rate of property price gains in 11 months.
On a monthly basis, values advanced 0.2%, down from the 1.2% March to April rate.
Anecdotal media reports in recent days say that property sales in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, China’s wealthiest cities, fell by as much as 70% last month from the previous month and land sales for residential development projects in 70 Chinese cities fell 14%.
The property index on the Shanghai stock exchange is down 28% this year and close to 50% since midway through 2009 when it peaked.
We reported earlier this week that sales by China Vanke, the country’s biggest listed property developer, dropped 20% in May from May 2009, while other developers have reported sales down by as much as 48%.
So far the government hasn’t lifted interest rates to help cool demand, as central banks in Australia, Brazil and now New Zealand have done.
But they have forced banks to cut lending by increasing their asset reserve ratios.
According to the country’s Statistics Bureau, investment in real estate rose 38% to 1.39 trillion Yuan ($US203 billion) in the first five months of this year, after a 36.2% rise in the January-April period.
This comparison will remain high for months to come as it includes the pell mell months from June 2009 onwards when lending and buying soared.
Property sales by area rose 22% in the first five months, down from the 33% rate in the first four months of the year (compared with the same period of 2009 which was depressed by the aftermath of the slump).
The 48.5% jump in May’s exports was the best for six years, and imports rose 48.3% as higher prices for iron ore and various coal types kicked in.
But as impressive as it was, the comparison was made to look better because May last year saw a record 26.4% fall in exports.
Exports rose to $US131.76 billion last month, the highest figure since September 2008, while imports totalled $US112.23 billion.
May’s rise in imports was down on the 49.7% annual rate in the 12 months to April.
After taking into account calendar adjustments for the number of working days, Chinese customs said that exports rose 45.3% in May from May 200, rose 11% from April.
Imports rose 41.7% from May last year, but fell 0.9% from April.
The trade surplus was the biggest in seven months.
Shipments to the European Union jumped 50%, compared with 29% in April, and came despite the gradual appreciation of the pegged Yuan (to the US dollar) against the euro that is now running at around 20%.
Exports to the US were up 44%, against the sluggish 19% rise in April.
It was only in March that China recorded its first trade surplus for six years.
And there were two pleasant surprises in yesterday’s growth and producer price data in Japan: both were better than anyone had forecast.
Producer prices in Japan rose last month for the first time since late 2008, and March quarter GDP was revised up to an annual rate of 5%, thanks to higher domestic consumption.
No one forecast either and for Japanese companies it’s a sign that the intense price deflation might be easing as stronger demand from China and other high-growth economies in Asia pulls the country’s economy further from the mire.
The Bank of Japan said its corporate goods price index rose 0.4% in May from May 2009, the first increase since December 2008.
Petroleum, coal and natural gas prices increased 38.8% (that would be higher coal and oil prices), while metal prices gained 30.8%. The rises came despite the still high level for the yen.
And first quarter growth was a touch faster than first estimated at 5.0% instead of the 4.9% first estimate.
No one picked that, with the Tokyo consensus for a fall to an annual rate of 4.2% . The quarter on quarter was an unchanged 1.2%.
That was due to an upward revision of domestic consumption, which helped offset the downward revision of capital spending to 0.6% growth from 1%.
