We’ve seen the outline for the coming election campaign in Australia, starting with the RBA minutes tomorrow, but the key event in the week for global markets will be the release of the stress tests of 91 major European banks.
While debate surrounds the tests and their severity, we should get a good result.
The US stress test results in early 2009 produced a positive response and a tick of health for the banks which then proceeded to raise enough capital to reassure investors.
That helped drive the rebound in markets (along with the inventory driven rebound in many economies).
In Europe we should see a similar outcome from the stress tests, which really are an attempt to draw a line in the sand and end queries over the health of the area’s major banks
If that happens, it should have a positive result in terms of boosting confidence in the European banking system, and the euro, which has risen 9% in the past month against the US dollar.
But the results last week for the second quarter from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America confirm that the big trading rally for the banks, which started in the wake of the US stress tests, has ended, leaving the banks at the mercy of a slowing economy and stricken consumers.
In the US, the health of the recovery will again be questioned by new figures for the deeply depressed housing sector.
Data for sales of existing homes and new home starts and permits are likely to remain soft following the expiry of the first home buyer tax credit.
The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) releases its home builders’ index tonight, our time.
On Tuesday, our time, US housing starts for June will be released, with economists expecting a slight dip to 580,000, down from a previous 593,000.
June won’t see a repeat of the plunge in May that we saw in new home starts, but a sharp improvement is not expected either.
Falling mortgage applications (and refinancings) are telling us that despite record lows for mortgage rates, Americans don’t have the confidence or the cash to buy a home in numbers sufficient to stop a double dip for housing.
Existing home sales for June will be released in the US on Thursday, and economists are forecasting a small fall from the previous 5.66 million annual rate in May.
The US leading index is also due for release and the US second quarter profits reporting season will hot up with 100 major companies due to report in the week ahead.
And we will have testimony from Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve chairman, to both houses of Congress mid week on the economy. After last week’s fed minutes and the weak data on manufacturing, it should be a vital but of testimony.
The coming week’s earnings will include results from 12 Dow stocks, including Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley along with tech majors, Apple, Texas Instruments and Qualcomm.
According to Thomson Reuters up to last Friday, 48 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 had reported earnings for the second quarter, with 75% having topped analysts’ estimates, 13% in line with expectations and the rest below expectations.
On revenues, of the 48 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far, 71% have topped analysts’ expectations and 29% were under estimates.
In Europe, giants, Philips, Nokia and Ericsson, report second-quarter earnings.
In Australia, BHP Billiton’s 4th quarter and 2009-10 production and exploration report will be the major release.
That will tell how the world’s biggest miner is viewing the world, especially China.
Last week, Rio Tinto revealed solid demand and production of iron ore and coal, but there was no upgrade for expected iron ore sales over the rest of 2010.
It’s a relatively quiet week for data releases, but the RBA Board minutes for July will be released tomorrow and RBA Governor is set to deliver a speech later tomorrow regarding the long-run effects of the financial crisis.
The minutes are likely to reinforce the now more mixed outlook for interest rates.
Since the last RBA Board meeting though stronger Australian economic data for employment and consumer sentiment have increased the chance of a rate hike in August, particularly if June quarter inflation data surprises on the upside.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its measure of international merchandise imports for June while on Wednesday, the Westpac/ Melbourne Institute Leading Index for May is due out.
The ABS will release the international trade price indexes for the June quarter on Friday ahead of the CPIT release Wednesday week.
On Wednesday, Woolworths will release its fourth quarter sales result.
The retailer cut its sales growth estimate for the year to between 3% and 6% at the nine month mark after sales growth slowed sharply in the three months to March.
On Thursday, AXA Asia Pacific Holdings’ chief executive, Andrew Penn, will address a business luncheon in Melbourne for AMCHAM.
The National Australia Bank and AXA’s parent in France are negotiating for an extension of time in which the NAB hopes to get ACCC clearance to buy AXA Asia Pacific.
An announcement on that could come this week.
This will tell us a lot about how the grocery sector travelled in the June quarter when the retail sales figures from the Bureau of stats showed a definite slowing trend.
On Friday Woodside Petroleum will release its second quarter and first half
