Suddenly Australia is a one off in the booming Asian region, instead of being ahead of the pack.
After rate rises starting last October and continuing up to April, Australian rates look like they are on hold until the end of the year.
New Zealand lifted rates 0.25% yesterday to 3%, India on Tuesday, several other Asian central banks, such as Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan earlier this month or in June.
The Bank of Israel lifted its key rate 0.25% on Monday to 1.75%; Brazil boosted its rate 0.50% to 10.75% last week.
The Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter-point to 2.25% on July 9.
The same day, Malaysia’s central bank boosted borrowing costs for the third time this year.
The Reserve Bank of India increased a key interest rate more than economists forecast.
It raised the reverse repurchase rate a 0.50% to 4.5%, and the repurchase rate to 5.75% from 5.5%.
The trend is definitely skewed to the upside so far as monetary policy is in Asia and the rapidly growing emerging economies.
But not in Australia, after inflation fell in the June quarter in something of a surprise to many in the market.
So the Reserve Bank, which was the first central bank to start lifting rates in October 2009 and now has six increases under its belt, could be on hold for the rest of this year, while other central banks tighten.
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank yesterday lifted rates for a second time this year, India’s move on Tuesday was for a fourth time in 2010.
They and other banks are in catch up; the RBA is ahead of the policy curve at the moment with inflation under control for the time being.
NZ Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement that “While the outlook for economic growth has softened somewhat, it is still appropriate to continue to reduce the extraordinary level of support implemented during the 2008/09 recession.
“The world economy continues its fragile recovery. Trading partner growth has turned out stronger than we predicted, however, future prospects for growth have deteriorated. While still at high levels, our commodity prices have moderated.
“In New Zealand, domestic demand is subdued. Households are cautious, with retail spending growing only modestly, housing turnover in decline and household credit growth weak. While this caution has been evident for some time, the recent slowing in net immigration will act to further dampen consumer spending. Business investment remains very low, with corporate lending continuing to be subdued.
“The New Zealand dollar has appreciated in recent weeks. This appreciation is inconsistent with the softening in New Zealand’s economic outlook and moderation in our export commodity prices.
“Overall, we continue to predict respectable near-term GDP growth, with manufacturing confidence remaining elevated and forestry exports continuing to expand. An eventual recovery in business investment will assist growth over the medium term.
“Annual CPI inflation has been near 2 percent for the past five quarters. As the economy grows, inflationary pressures are expected to pick up.
“Given this, some further removal of monetary policy stimulus is appropriate at this stage. Even after today’s move, the level of the OCR is still very supportive of economic activity.
"The pace and extent of further OCR increases is likely to be more moderate than was projected in the June Statement. Our policy assessment will be continually reviewed in light of economic and financial market developments.
“The coming increase in the rate of GST and other government-related price changes are likely to temporarily push annual CPI inflation above 3 percent.
"The Bank does not expect this price spike to have a lasting impact on inflation. However, the price and wage setting behaviour of firms and households will be monitored for evidence of any increase in inflation expectations.”
The Reserve Bank of India left the door open to further rate rises because of the strong rise in inflation.
"The dominant concern that has shaped the monetary policy stance in this review is high inflation," RBI Governor, Duvvuri Subbarao said, in the bank’s official statement.
"Non-food inflation has risen, and demand-side pressures are clearly evident. With growth taking firm hold, the balance of policy stance has to shift decisively to containing inflation and anchoring inflationary expectations," said Subbarao.
The rate increases came with India’s main inflation measure, the nation’s wholesale-price-index above 10% for the past five months.
The increase in lending rates was the RBI’s fourth such increase this year.
The RBI had previously also raised the cash reserve ratio — the proportion of deposits that commercial banks must keep with the central bank — by one percentage point to absorb excess system liquidity.
The RBI said its outlook on inflation will partly be shaped by the distribution of monsoon rains and their impact, as the agricultural harvest will be crucial to easing currently high food prices in the country.
It also raised the country’s gross domestic-product-growth forecast for the year ending March 31, 2011, to 8.5% from 8% with an upward bias.
"This upward revision i
