All interest this week will be offshore, now that the good inflation figures have ruled out a rate rise from the Reserve Bank here tomorrow.
So in the week ahead the focus will be the various surveys of manufacturing in Australia, China and the rest of Asia, some parts of Europe and the US, but the concern for the markets will be America’s employment and jobless data for July, Friday night Australian time.
In the US, the jobless data comes after the mixed and confusing first estimate of second quarter growth, investors will be hoping the jobs data might provide a bit of clarity on the direction of the depressed American labour market.
The lay-off of census workers is expected to result in a 70,000 fall in payroll employment in July, but the continued modest recovery in the economy could see a rise of around 100,000 for private payrolls.
The unemployment rate could shift marginally from the 9.5% rate, but it’s uncertain which way. Consumer confidence was weak last month, despite the strong showing in the sharemarket.
There has been a downshift in US economic activity since the end of June and this is complicating matters.
The first of two Chinese manufacturing conditions index (or PMI) was out yesterday, others for China and the US will be out today and tomorrow.
Regional surveys in the US suggest that the manufacturing ISM will likely fall to around 53 for July from a reading of 56.2 in June.
China’s Government-sponsored PMI, out yesterday, revealed a weakening in all but one of 12 measures.
The Purchasing managers Index fell to 51.2 in July from 52.1 in June, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. (50 is the dividing point between expansion (above) and contraction (contraction).
The PMI was the lowest since China’s manufacturing stopped contracting in March of last year.
An output index fell to 52.7 from 55.8 in June, a measure of new orders slid to 50.9 from 52.1. The export-order index fell for a third month, dropping to 51.2 from 51.7.
Only the measure of employment rose, climbing to 52.2 from 50.6.
The other survey (from HSBC) is due out later today and could show a deeper fall given that it was a bit more negative last month.
Normally that would be bearish for shares, but China’s sharemarket seems to be in the midst of a turnaround, up 6.1% two weeks ago and around 4% last week to be up 10% in July, the best rise this year. Thursday’s close was the highest for two months.
European surveys are likely to confirm that recovery is well underway, especially in Germany and the UK.
We will also get US car sales figures for July.
Attention early in the week will focus on attempts starting tomorrow night, our time, by BP to kill the Gulf of Mexico oil well leak.
Last week’s Beige Book from the Fed and comments by several car company executives suggest car sales might have slowed again last month after weakening in June.
Among companies expected to report next week are Kraft, Procter & Gamble, Clorox, Mastercard, Time Warner and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway,
Their results will provide another glimpse into the state of US consumer spending which, according to the second quarter GDP report, fell from the March quarter.
Here in Australia, no rate rise at tomorrow’s Reserve Bank board meeting after the good inflation figures for the June quarter last week.
And we get new inflation and growth forecasts from the RBA in the third Statement of Monetary Policy due out on Friday.
That will be examined to see if the RBA’s tightening bias is maintained, given the good inflation figures.
We should get a good idea of that with the post RBA board meeting statement from Governor Glenn Stevens tomorrow afternoon.
We also have retail sales and building approvals for June on Tuesday and the trade figures for June and the 2009-10 financial year as well the day after.
Rio Tinto’s half year report is due out on Thursday, as is News Corps’s 4th quarter and full year figures.
Other major profits expected will come from Crane Group, AXA AP (confirmation of figures already provided), West Australian Newspapers, Alumina Tabcorp and Resmed.
The AMP’s chief strategist and economist Dr Shane Oliver says. "Key themes from the reporting season are expected to be: a return to profit growth with earnings per share likely to have risen 10% in the 2009-10 financial year following a 20% slump in 2008-09".
"A possible increase in dividends reflecting the improvement in cash flows, balance sheets and financing conditions; a negative impact on earnings for European exposed companies from the strong rise in the $A versus the euro; and possible caution regarding the outlook for earnings in 2010-11.
"Resources with likely 20% profit growth, banks, media and retail sectors are expected to record the strongest profit growth."
We will also see our June car sales figures midweek. The six month industry figures will also be released and car sales could be running at a near record annual rate of more than one million.
The annual Diggers and Dealers mining conference is on in Kalgoorlie for most of the week.
Banks will be closed in some states today due to the August Bank Holiday.
In Europe we will get UK consumer confidence, a Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the EU producer price index and EU retail sales figures (both for June).
German industrial production figures for June are due out Friday and should be strong, given the recent improving trend.
The European Central Bank’s August meeting is due on Thursday night, our time, a
