We received more evidence Friday for the tentative belief that key major economies are slowing.
American economic growth slowed in the second quarter to an annual rate of 2.4% in the first estimate from the US Government.
That was down from the sharply revised first quarter figure of an annual rate of 3.7% (2.7% in the third estimate).
The US release came on top of soft data from around the world, including higher unemployment in Spain, France and Japan, a rise in the eurozone inflation from 1.4% to 1.7%; an unexpected 1.5% dip in Japan’s industrial production, and a rise in unemployment.
But Sweden’s economy accelerated in the second quarter thanks to soaring exports.
The government said on Friday that annual growth was 3.7% in the year to June and up 1.2% from the March quarter.
The news confused markets which still ended the week and month in the black and in far better heart after the miserable falls in May and June.
Interest rates rose in India, Israel and New Zealand last week, but not in Australia where inflation surprised on the downside.
Japan provided the biggest international surprise: unemployment in June rose to 5.3%, a seven month high.
Industrial production fell for the first time in several months and surprised because the market had expected a small rise.
Export related sectors seem to be weakening (exports fell 1.8% in June from May).
And Japanese inflation fell 1% (annual) in June on a core basis (excluding a recent cut in school fees).
While the 2.4% first estimate of annual growth was down on the first quarter, the size of the upward revision was a big surprise.
First quarter growth had been estimated at 3.2% in the first report, and then cut to 2.7%.
But the depth of the recession was also revised to make it the deepest slowdown since 1947.
According to the revised Commerce Department figures, the US economy shrank 4.1% from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, compared with the previous estimate of 3.7%.
The figures showed business spending was the strongest for four years and would normally be associated with increased confidence in the economy, but analysts said cash-flush companies were merely making up for ground lost during the recession.
Another factor from the report was that much of the growth came from a bigger than expected rise in business inventories.
Economists say this is a worry as it tells us that US companies have misjudged consumer demand, which continues to weaken, so the rise in unsold stocks will weigh on growth and demand over the next year if not corrected.
But consumption growth fell to an annual rate of 1.6% in the quarter from 1.9% in the three months to March, reflecting the crippled jobs market, falling retail sales, and declining consumer credit.
That’s important as consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US economy (and around 17% of annual global economic growth).
The consumption figure was made to look better than it was by a rise in spending on construction and home building brought about by the home buyers’ tax credit, which ended in April.
US home purchases and building starts have all plunged since then, with new home sales close to their lowest recorded.
The GDP report will almost certainly be revised in the next two reports with more data on trade, income and spending to be assessed. (In fact trade is estimated to have been the main negative factor in the GDP estimate).
But the report confirms last week’s pessimistic Beige Book from the Fed (which will be considered at the next Fed meeting this month), and Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke’s frank comment than the US economy was "unusually uncertain".
It certainly is despite what second quarter corporate earnings might be saying.
US consumer sentiment was confirmed at its lowest level since November in the second report for the month from Reuters and the University of Michigan.
There might have been a small rise in this report from the mid-month release, but that was immaterial given the size of the fall from June.
June’s report had shown consumer confidence in the US at a 30 month high.
This steep fall in sentiment is not good news for the US economy, which is showing signs of slowing.
So is the sharp rise in inventories, which is contrary to what many economists had been thinking with growth last year, driven by business restocking.
That now seems to be well and truly over; overstocking seems to be a better description.
