After the sudden change in market sentiment last week after the US Federal Reserve’s meeting and downgrading of the US economy, we can look forward to more concerns on markets here and offshore this week.
But in Australia the Federal election on Saturday, but before then we have the Reserve Bank board minutes for this month’s meeting, plus a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens in Perth.
On Friday, Deputy Governor Ric Battellino speaks in Queensland on the day before the poll.
The minutes and the speech both happen tomorrow.
The AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the minutes and the speeches "are likely to confirm that while the Bank still retains a bias to raise interest rates further it doesn’t feel compelled to act on it now".
June quarter wages data is likely to show a slight uptick in the pace of wage gains.
Average Weekly Earnings figures are also out this week on Thursday, the day after the Labour Price Index.
ABS figures on car sales for last month will also be out later today.
It’s also another big week for the June 30 profit reporters and for market sentiment (see above story).
The Australian June half profit reporting season will speed up with 50 major companies due to report including Boral, CSL, BlueScope Steel, OneSteel, Woodside Petroleum, AMP, Brambles, QBE, Wesfarmers, Billabong, Newcrest, ASX, Downer EDI, Monodelpheous Group and Cons Media.
We also have a third quarter trading update from the ANZ on Friday that will be very closely watched after the flat update from the NAB last week and then the weak outlook from the Commonwealth the day after.
Japan’s first estimate of second quarter economic growth is out later this morning in Tokyo.
Britain releases its July consumer price index on Tuesday, the Bank of England minutes from its last monetary policy meeting will be out on Wednesday, and Germany will also release its producer price index for July on Thursday.
In Europe, earnings reporters will include from Danish brewer Carlsberg and Swiss cement producer Holcim (which has a big stake in the Australian industry, especially in Queensland).
In the US, producer price inflation in July is likely to have remained benign and housing data will be watched closely for signs of stabilisation after the slump following the ending of the first time home buyer tax credit in April.
The Philadelphia and New York regional manufacturing surveys will be watched closely.
Giant retailer Wal-Mart Stores is expected to announce results along with a number of other leading retailers.
They will include Target Corp, Abercrombie & Fitch, Limited Brands, Gap, Sears Holdings Corp, Staples, Home Depot and Lowe’s Co.
Top tech names such as Intuit and Hewlett-Packard are also due to report. The latter will be watched closely after its CEO’s resignation last Friday week and a continuing controversy over his sacking and his pay.
While earnings reports in the US have been generally solid to upbeat, retailers have been less optimistic.
Last week’s forecast from J.C. Penney Co Inc downgrading its earnings expectations quite heavily could be a signal that the sector is facing much tougher times.
On Friday, J.C. Penney forecast a profit for the year below Wall Street’s expectations and said its customers were vulnerable to weak economic conditions, after rival department stores Kohl’s and Nordstrom’s gave conservative profit outlooks.
