Post election and its back to the economy here and offshore and the various markets.
In Australia, it’s the last full week of the earnings season for June 30 companies and the highlights will come from BHP Billiton and Woolworths.
In the US we will learn the extent of the cut to second quarter economic growth by the government when the second estimate is issued Friday night, our time.
The first estimate said growth was 2.4% annual (0.6% quarter on quarter), now there are estimates as low as 1% annual (or around 0.2%-0.3% quarter on quarter), which is close to stalling speed.
Consensus is around 1.4% annual or just over 0.3% quarter on quarter.
And some economists in the US and Europe already have US third quarter growth pencilled in at stalling speed (zero) or dipping into the red.
In Australia we see the start of quarterly data that heads towards the second quarter GDP figures next week.
Wednesday sees construction work done figures for the June quarter.
On Thursday we get the vital new private capital spending numbers which will tell us how the resources boom is travelling and whether the Reserve Bank’s belief this surge is carrying the economy (along with strong shipments of coal, iron ore, gas and other resources) is being maintained.
The company reporting season continues with earnings (full year and some interim) from another long list of corporates.
They include Woolworths, Ansell, Caltex (interim), Fosters, Origin Energy, AGL Energy, Harvey Norman, Transfield Services, Santos (interim), Oil Search (interim), Seek, Crown, Tatts Group, Suncorp Metway, Fortescue Metals Group, Worleyparsons, Virgin Blue, Fairfax Media, Boart Longyear (interim), Mirvac, Perpetual, BHP Billiton, Flight Centre, Aristocrat (interim), Seven Group, Wotif, Asciano, Hastie Group, Centro, Pacific Brands, Skilled Group, IAG, Intoll, Toll, Amcor, GPT (interim) Tassal, Iluka (interim), IOOF, Sonic Healthcare and a host of others.
The AMP’s chief strategist Dr Shane Oliver says the Australian June half profit reporting season has remained uninspiring.
"Profits are up, but the proportion of companies surprising on the upside so far is only 33%, which is down from 49% in the February reporting season.
"While there have been more positive than negative comments on the outlook, the ratio of positive to negative has only been 2 to 1 compared to 6 to 1 during the last reporting season.
"There has been some good news on the dividend front with dividends on the rise on the back of better cash flows.
"But reflecting the overall soft tone to the reporting season, earnings expectations for 2010-11 have been revised down by about 2%, taking expected earnings growth to around 18% for this financial year.
"Some other themes have been soft bank results, some improvement in retail momentum and good cost control."
Dr Oliver says that, "Given the uncertainty regarding the outlook and the downwards revisions to earnings expectations so far through the reporting season, the focus is likely to be on company outlook statements."
In other corporate events, Westpac Banking Corporation will release its third quarter trading update later today and Lihir Gold shareholders will vote on fellow gold miner Newcrest Mining’s $9.9 billion takeover offer, also today.
The BHP profit will be the big news (and any more comments on the Potash bid).
Market consensus if a full year profit of $14.26 billion, up from last year’s $5.87 billion reported after tax result.
Analysts see Woolworths earning a net profit of just under $2 billion ($1.98 billion), up from 2009’s $1.83 billion.
In the US, existing home sales figures for July are due out, with a 4% fall forecast, and durable goods orders for July are also out with a 3.5% rise forecast because of higher car production.
New home sales figures for July are also out and no change on the historically low levels for May and June are forecast.
The latest weekly US continuing jobless claims are out on Thursday night, our time and will be keenly watched after the jump to 500,000 in last week’s report, the worst figure for nine months.
And Friday sees the second estimate of GDP numbers for the second quarter and a big downward revision is forecast.
Friday also sees the second report on consumer sentiment for August from the Reuters/Michigan survey.
Japan will release its July jobless rate on Thursday, which currently sits at 5.3% and we can expect other data on Friday.
