So where will we be ranking internationally after the release of second quarter growth figures this week?
And will American markets be able to maintain Friday’s confidence if this Friday’s August jobs figures are another bad story?
The Australian second quarter national accounts are out Wednesday.
Estimates for second quarter growth range from a quarter on quarter 0.6% to 1%, with many seeing the outcome around 0.8%.
Last week’s surprisingly weak second quarter investment figures forced some revisions.
Today we get business indicators for the June quarter which will tell us how inventories, wages, salaries and profits went in the three months to June.
Tomorrow we get the full June quarter balance of payments (and for 2009-10), plus government financing details for the quarter, which could be the big swing factor with the impact of stimulus spending fading.
And retail sales and building approvals for July are out tomorrow as well, making for a very busy day.
And the trade figures for July are out Thursday. Another big surplus is forecast.
All will add to the data on July jobs growth (solid) that was released at the start of this month.
They will give us an early idea how the subdued retailing and housing sectors have started the third quarter.
So if growth is around 0.8%, that will give an annual June 30 outcome of 2.7%, unchanged with the annual rate in the year to the end of the March quarter.
If it is at the top end of forecasts, 1.1%, then the annual rate in the year to June will be 3%.
The Australian economy grew at 0.3% in the three months to September, 1.1% in the December quarter and 0.5% in the three months to March.
And if June quarter growth is 0.8%, it will be unchanged from the June quarter rate of 2009.
Growth in the US was cut from an annual 2.4% (0.6% quarter on quarter) to 1.4% (0.4% quarter on quarter) in the second estimate out Friday, but UK growth was lifted to 1.2% in its second estimate (q/q) or nearly 5% annual.
German growth was over 2% quarter on quarter, but Japanese growth slowed to 0.1% quarter on quarter from 1.1% in the first quarter.
Besides the ABS data, we will also get the private credit figures from the Reserve Bank tomorrow, the RBA’s commodity price index on Wednesday, while RBA Assistant Governor, Guy Debelle speaks at a securitisation conference in Sydney tomorrow.
ASIC chairman Tony D’Aloisio speaks in Melbourne on Friday.
Overseas, the eurozone releases second quarter GDP figures while the ECB decision on interest rates and comments at a post meeting press conference from chairman Claude Trichet will be examined to see if there’s any change in policy.
There’s the usual scattering of start of month surveys of manufacturing industry and service sector performance this week.
One is due on China tomorrow and the second will come on Wednesday.
Similar reports will come in Australia, the UK, Europe and the US on Wednesday and Thursday.
In Europe we get surveys of EU business and consumer confidence as well as producer prices for July. Germany releases unemployment data for August.
Major French groups; retailer Carrefour, investors Vivendi and Pernod Ricard the grog group are due to report their latest results this week.
Friday’s August employment and unemployment figures will dominate the US this week.
A small lift in private payrolls is forecast, but as well there could be close to 100,000 job losses as state and federal public servants are being sacked.
Reuters says the non-farm payroll report on Friday is expected to show 99,000 jobs were lost in August, while private sector hires grew by only 42,000.
On Tuesday in the US, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for June is scheduled for release and might show a small easing.
Intel’s cut to its third-quarter revenue and profit estimates on Friday surprised the market, but was then ignored.
That will change this week as analysts realise the implications of what the world’s biggest chipmaker is saying: after more than a year of rising demand, there’s a tech slowdown ahead, if it hasn’t already arrived.
Weekly claims for jobless benefits are out on Thursday, the day before the unemployment data is released.
Quarterly earnings reports will come from a few companies including SAIC Inc, H.J. Heinz Co, Brown-Forman Corp, H&R Block Inc and Campbell Soup Co.
The August car sales figures are also due out late in the week (and could be issued for Australia as well on Friday).
