Australian interest rates and jobs will dominate the week ahead with the Reserve Bank board meeting tomorrow and the August unemployment data out on Thursday.
Offshore we will see some important data in the US, and the August figures from China will be the most important offshore data for the local market.
That comes on Friday.
Besides the Australian rate meeting, central banks in Japan, Canada and the UK also hold rate considewring meetings this week.
No change in rates is expected from the RBA meeting, but what will be of considerable interest is the wording of the post-meeting statement given that we now know the economy is doing better than we thought a month ago.
It will be the fourth meeting in a row that the central bank has sat pat on interest rates.
But the solid retail sales for July and the very strong growth data for the June quarter (especially the solid consumer spending and fall in savings) has advanced the timing of the next rate rise from early 2011 to later this year.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said on Saturday that "while a run of stronger than expected economic data culminating in above trend growth in the June quarter adds to the case for a rate hike this is likely to be balanced against uncertainty regarding the global outlook and expectations that inflation is likely to remain within the target range over the year ahead.
"However, the RBA is also likely to signal that its bias is still to raise rates and that above trend GDP growth in the June quarter along with a massive boost to national income from higher commodity prices will have reinforced this".
He said August employment is expected to show a gain of 18,000 jobs taking the unemployment rate down to 5.2%.
Other economists forecast that 20,000 new jobs were created last month.
Housing finance data will also be released, after last week’s rise in non-private dwelling approvals, and a small improvement might be revealed. That’s out on Wednesday.
On Thursday, RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will speak at the Westpac Macro Strategy Forum in Sydney.
It’s his second speech in as many weeks. Last week he pointed out that the public sector will always have to clean up in the event of serious problem in the financial system.
The week starts with the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute inflation gauge and then the ANZ’s Job Advertisement series for August.
In the corporate area, no major earnings statements are expected.
But a decision from the ACCC on the long running NAB takeover of AXA Asia Pacific is expected on Thursday.
Meetings this week include Jetset Travelworld later today which holds an extraordinary general meeting, following the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s approval last week of its merger with Stella Travel Services Holdings.
Wednesday will see AGMs held at Cougar Metals and Padbury Mining.
Offshore, Wall St closed tonight, our time Monday for the US Labor Day public holiday.
This marks the end of summer and the start of the US fall and then winter seasons.
Tuesday will see the release of the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on the current US economic situation.
The ‘Beige Book’ is an anecdotal assessment of economic conditions across the US, and investors will be watching intently for clues on the direction of the recovery, especially after last week’s relatively better news on manufacturing and jobs.
UK consumer confidence data for August is also due on Tuesday.
In Germany we get factory orders for July coming on Tuesday followed by trade balance and industrial production on Wednesday.
The UK and France, where the economic recovery hasn’t been as strong, also release industrial production data on Wednesday and Friday respectively.
All are expected to confirm the rebound in the economy, especially trade and production.
On Wednesday, consumer credit data will be released in the US, while the National Institute of Economic and Social Research GDP Estimate for August is due in the UK.
America’s Trade figures for July are out Thursday, with economists expecting the deficit to have narrowed slightly from $US49.9 billion to just under $US48 billion.
US weekly jobless claims data is also expected on Thursday, as usual.
Elsewhere on Thursday, the European Central Bank will release its monthly report, while the Bank of England will make its monthly interest rate decision for the UK.
The Bank of Japan is set to hold an emergency monetary policy meeting later today, amid pressure from its government as a rising yen and tumbling Nikkei threatens Japan’s economic recovery.
Wrapping up a busy day in international data, the updated second quarter economic growth figures for Japan are also due on Thursday.
Friday will see Chinese August inflation, trade, retail sales, house prices and lending figures released.
Some of those figures will have been released ahead of Friday, if previous months are any guide.
