This week the focus will be well and truly on the US with a string of important data to be released.
After the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book last week reported a widespread deceleration in economic activity in many parts of the US in July and August, there’s a lot of interest in what the market thinks of this week’s releases.
That commentary from the Fed didn’t hit confidence like earlier statements did and the few economic figures out last week were seen as mostly OK rather than gloomy.
In particular, all eyes will likely be on the New York and Philadelphia regional manufacturing surveys which gave such a bad lead to the national ISM manufacturing survey last month.
So this week we get retail sales figures for last month and industrial production and capacity also for August.
August inflation data is likely to remain benign, with producer prices out first on Thursday and consumer inflation figures out on Friday.
The retail sales figures are out Tuesday and the production numbers for August the day after.
The first of two University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer confidence reports is also out on Friday.
America’s weekly jobless data is out Thursday.
Analysts point out that Friday also marks the end of the "quadruple witching" period – the quarterly settlement and expiration of four different types of September equity futures and options contracts.
This two-day event only happens four times a year in March, June, September and December.
It could add volatility to a market where trading volumes are lower than in previous years, which makes sudden and sharp swings in sentiment and prices possible.
The two reports that will be closely watched will be the Empire State Manufacturing Index for September in the US and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing survey also for September.
If they show any sign of a weakening, then there will be an adverse impact on sentiment, but signs of a bounce will lift confidence levels, just as the indifferent August employment data 10 days ago did.
US profit reports will come from the likes of electricals retailer Best Buy, big supermarket chain Kroger Co, the global air freight and transport giant Federal Express and the huge computer software and hardware group Oracle, which last week hired former Hewlett-Packard CEO, Mark Hurd.
In Australia, we will get the NAB business conditions and confidence survey tomorrow.
The AMP’s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says this survey "is likely to show a rise after recent weakness and consumer confidence is expected to strengthen further on the back of another month of interest rates staying on hold and more good news on the labour market".
We will also get the latest Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey on Wednesday which will show us the state of consumer sentiment during and after the August 21 poll and the 17 days of talks on the formation of a new government.
Dwelling data is also out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and is seen as showing a 5% rise in commencements for the June quarter.
A speech by RBA Assistant Governor Phil Lowe later in the week will be watched closely for any indications as to how the RBA has interpreted recent strong economic data for Australia.
It will be the first major speech on the state of the economy from the bank since last week’s decision by the RBA not to move rates.
Assistant Governor Phil Lowe is head of the RBA’s economics department. His speech is due on Thursday.
We will also get ABS data on new vehicle sales for August on Wednesday.
The ABS also releases Australia’s international merchandise imports figures for August on Thursday.
In corporate matters, it’s a quiet week.
There are only a few meetings among the tiddlers of the market.
Midwinter Resources and Mirabela Nickel will both hold their AGMs on Monday.
Monday will also see the Capital Allocation and Basel III forum begin in London, which banks globally will be keeping a close eye on.
The new capital rules were issued early Monday morning.
Tuesday will see Wolf Minerals hold its AGM, Batavia Mining its AGM on Wednesday and junior miner Ferraus its AGM on Friday.
Myer releases its first full year results since floating last November on Thursday.
In Europe, the European Union will release industrial production data, while housing price data is due in the UK.
In the UK on Tuesday there’s CPI and the retail price index due and jobless data for August the next day.
Other countries across the region will also report their employment pictures for last month as well.
There’s also a string of updates from UK retailers, including the likes of Next.
The EU trade balance for July is due on Thursday and the EU current account figures for the same month on Friday.
